旅游搜索引擎服务商Kayak暂缓IPO

    毕竟，Kayak看来还处于上升通道中，这是投资者都乐于看到的。Kayak提交给美国证券交易委员会（Securities and Exchange Commission）的IPO文件显示，2012年第一个日历季度实现收入7,330万美元，较上年同期的5,270万美元增长39%。在最近一个季度，实现利润415万美元（合每股11美分），而上年同期亏损691万美元（合每股1.33美元），今年已一举扭亏为盈。

    与之形成对比的是Facebook在路演中对投资者宣称，第一季度由于收入增长放缓，利润下降。在IPO前听到这样的消息，让投资者很不愉快。

    Kayak网站的浏览量也在增长。IPO文件显示，最近季度，Kayak网站和移动应用的旅游信息搜索量为3.10亿次，较去年同期的2.14亿次激增45%。

    不同于Expedia、Orbitz、Priceline和Travelocity，Kayak网站上不卖机票，也不预订酒店。它为旅游者提供一站式服务，展示其他网站提供的各类产品，用户可通过链接直接向报价公司购买。当人们点击这些链接时，Kayak就能获得收入。另外，它还有网络广告收入。

    不过，巴德说，Kayak推迟IPO是明智之举，因为在当前环境下不太可能获得应有的估值。“Facebook已经触怒了投资者——没人想买一开始就亏钱的新股。”巴德说，“总体来看，IPO估值通常较市价有折让——比如10-15%——但在当前环境下，可能至少要折让30-40%。”

    但是，Kayak也不是没有风险。分析师们表示，虽然这家旅游网站当前的财务状况看上去一片光明，但中长期前景不那么确定。晨星分析师苏丹表示，Kayak高度依赖ITA Software来为用户提供机票信息，这蕴藏着风险。

    2011年谷歌（Google）已以7亿美元买下ITA，目前还不清楚这会对2016年Kayak的ITA许可协议到期后产生怎样的影响。Kayak在提交的一份文件中称，“丧失ITA使用权，软件不能升级或者使用ITA软件的成本上升，都可能带来显著的负面影响，”可能影响到Kayak搜索结果的质量和速度，影响到Kayak的收入和营运业绩。

    竞争也很激烈。谷歌收购ITA后推出了同Kayak竞争的酒店和航班搜索工具及服务。微软（Microsoft）的必应旅行（Bing Travel）和Superfly也想分一块蛋糕。（Kayak首席财务官比尔•史密斯最近离职，加盟Superfly。“IPO之前首席财务官离职令人担忧，”巴德说。）

    After all, Kayak appears to be on a growth trajectory, something investors tend to like. Kayak's revenue rose 39% to $73.3 milllion in the first calendar quarter of 2012, from $52.7 million during the same period a year ago, according to the company's IPO filings with the Securities and Exchange Commission. It also generated a profit of $4.15 million, or 11 cents a share, in the latest quarter, reversing a loss of $6.91 million, or $1.33 a share, a year earlier.

    By contrast, Facebook told investors during its roadshow that its first quarter profit declined on slowing revenue growth, which soured investors as the IPO date drew near.

    Traffic to Kayak is also on the upswing. The number of requests for travel information through Kayak's website and mobile application shot up 45% to 310 million in the latest quarter from 214 million during the same period a year ago, the filing said.

    Different from websites such as Expedia, Orbitz, Priceline and Travelocity, Kayak doesn't sell airline tickets and hotel bookings on its site. Instead, it displays all of the options other sites offer for travelers in one place, and then provides a link for the person to make the purchase directly from the company offering that rate. It gets paid when people book using the link. It also gets revenue from online ads.

    However, Bard says Kayak was wise to delay its IPO as it's unlikely it would have gotten the valuation it deserved had it pushed ahead in the current climate. "Facebook has angered investors -- nobody wants to buy into an IPO that loses money right off the start," says Bard. "In general IPOs get priced at a discount to the market – say 10% to 15% - but in the current situation it would have to be at least a 30% to 40% discount."

    Still, Kayak isn't without risk. While the travel site's current financial picture looks bright, its longer-term outlook is less certain, analysts say. Its heavy reliance on ITA Software, which provides airline fare information to people using the Kayak site, is a risk, says Morningstar's Su.

    Google (GOOG) purchased ITA in a $700 million deal in 2011, and it's not known how this will affect Kayak when its licensing agreement with ITA expires in October 2016. "A loss of access to ITA's software or enhancements or improvements to the software or an adverse change in our costs associated with use of the ITA software, could have a significant negative effect" on the quality and speed of search results and on Kayak's revenue and operating results, the company said in a filing.

    Competition is also a brisk. After acquiring ITA, Google launched hotel and flight search tools and services that compete with Kayak. Hipmunk, Microsoft's (MSFT) Bing Travel and Superfly all want a piece of the pie as well. (Kayak chief financial officer Bill Smith recently left Kayak to joint Superfly. "It's cause for concern when a CFO leaves ahead of an IPO," says Bard).