按照EVA Dimensions公司【该公司提出了著名的经济增加值（EVA）理论——译注】计算的数据，每股28美元意味着市场认为Facebook营收到2021年有望突破500亿美元大关，换句话说，Facebook营收的年复合增长率要达到30%！这个数字令人惊讶，不过，相较于1000亿美元估值，即年营收达到680亿美元，前者看来要容易实现得多。上述营收有一个前提条件：从现在起，Facebook的利润率不会严重恶化。（考虑到Facebook的资金成本，其利润率可谓高得吓人。去年，Facebook取得了37亿美元营收，利润为10亿美元——EVA Dimensions称之为“垄断企业利润率”。）
Last month, Fortune asked if Facebook's stock was worth buying if the company is valued at $100 billion. The conclusion: It might be! Then came news yesterday that Facebook will price its IPO between $28 and $35 a share, implying a valuation between $77 billion and $96 billion for the young tech giant.
We've already said what kinds of hurdles Facebook faces with a $100 billion valuation. But what if shares trade near the low-end of the spectrum, say for $28, and don't bounce on the first day of trading? What kind of prospects does the stock offer then?
According to the numbers crunchers at EVA Dimensions, a $28 share price means the market thinks Facebook will grow to sales of just over $50 billion in the year 2021. That's still an impressive 30% annual compound growth rate, but it seems much easier to achieve than the $68 billion in sales implied by a $100 billion valuation. Those sales figures assume that Facebook's margins don't deteriorate badly from here. (Facebook, it turns out, earns amazing profit margins when you consider its capital costs. Last year it earned $1 billion on just $3.7 billion in sales— what EVA Dimensions calls "monopoly-like margins.")
We've said before, Google (GOOG) once faced the same hurdles but eventually grew into its valuation, and took stock investors on a ride from $85 to $650 along the way.
There's no easy take on Facebook stock. If you believe it can continue its torrid sales growth without killing margins, the stock looks like an amazing opportunity. If you doubt it can continue boosting sales, stay away.