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债券之王敲响警钟,鼓吹投资者大逃亡

债券之王敲响警钟,鼓吹投资者大逃亡

Stephen Gandel 2012-03-30
比尔•格罗斯建议当前投资者应未雨绸缪,准备迎接一个漫长的低回报率时代。

    不过,居安思危,考虑一下可能会有什么变化以及最近一波股市上涨会不会戛然而止,这样做并没有什么不好。格罗斯说,过去提振市场的因素将开始转为不利因素,在这一点上他是对的。但这并不意味着市场回报率将长期陷入低迷。利率和通胀的上升往往与经济加速增长相关,并可能拉动盈利和股市。高通胀时期,股票的表现往往好于债券和其他资产。还记得漂亮50(Nifty 50)股票吗?它们就出现在上世纪70年代。

    译者:老榆木

    Yet, it is plausible to think that is all about to change, and that the market's recent bull run should be coming to the end. Gross is right to say that the things that have boosted the market for so long are about to go against us. But that doesn't mean that we have to have a prolonged period of poor market performance. Rising interest rates and rising inflation are also usually correlated with a faster growing economy, which could also be good for earnings and stocks. Stock do tend to outperform bonds and other assets in times of higher inflation. Remember the Nifty 50. That happened in the 1970s.

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