国际油价坚挺之谜

    过去几年，我们的很多关键投资主题和宏观资产配置一直与美元走向息息相关。涉及到大宗商品，向来是美元涨，大宗商品就跌。但最近，石油与美元的这种关联却被打破了，布伦特原油价格和美元都在上涨。

    鉴于近期伊朗在霍尔木兹海峡问题上的强硬言辞，油价的强势并非完全出乎意料。去年12月份，伊朗威胁称，如果遭到石油禁运制裁，伊朗将封闭霍尔木兹海峡。这项声明发布后，伊朗举行了为期十天的一系列海军演习，地点就在霍尔木兹海峡的东部水域。

    上周四，又传来一条对伊朗石油出口不利的消息。日本政府在与美国财长蒂姆•盖特纳会晤后表示，日本打算减少伊朗石油进口，伊朗石油现占日本总进口量的10%左右。日本是伊朗石油第二大进口国，约占伊朗总出口量的17%，仅次于中国（20%）。而中国一直不愿减少伊朗石油进口，虽然中国总理温家宝上周末首次访问沙特阿拉伯，可能被视为是对伊朗的冒犯。

    霍尔木兹海峡的战略重要性在于，全球有超过1/5的石油运输都要经过这里。从波斯湾运出的石油要先通过这个最窄处仅34英里的霍尔木兹海峡，然后才能进入阿拉伯海。每天有约14艘油轮装载1,550万桶原油穿过这个海峡。

    美国参谋长联席会议主席马丁•登普西将军1月8日在（哥伦比亚广播公司）《面对全国》（Face the Nation）的电视节目中，非常明确地表示，如果伊朗试图封锁霍尔木兹海峡，美国将积极采取行动。他说：“他们有能力将霍尔木兹海峡封锁一段时间，我们有能力确保，一旦发生这种情况，我们就能挫败这种企图。”

    美国国防部长里昂•帕内塔也做了类似表态，并指出，伊朗建造核武器的努力将跨越美国的“红线”，这意味着美国可能会“实施报复”。

    谈到核武器问题，据伊朗官方日报《世界报》（Kayhan）的报道，伊朗已开始在福尔多铀浓缩厂生产浓缩铀。福尔多核设施依山而建，临近德黑兰南边的穆斯林圣城库姆。（具有讽刺意味的是，福尔多据信也是两伊战争期间死伤人数最多的地点。）2009年，福尔多核设施曝光，此后一直是争论的焦点，因为复发确定伊朗到底是在朝着发展核武器的道路前行，还是仅仅为了获取能源而进行铀浓缩。

    美国国防部长和美国联席参谋长会议主席上周末在（全国广播公司）《会见新闻界》（Meet the Press）节目中措辞强硬。无独有偶，美国外交关系协会（Council on Foreign Relations）的刊物《外交事务》（Foreign Affairs）也刊登了美国国防部前防务规划员马修•克罗尼格的文章《进攻伊朗的时机到了》（Time to Attack Iran）。他的结论简单来讲就是，除了进攻，美国别无选择，而时机就是现在。

    Many of our key investment themes and macro asset allocations over the past couple of years have been related to the direction of the U.S. dollar. As it relates to commodities, the trend has been dollar up, commodities down. Recently that correlation has weakened with oil, as both Brent crude and the U.S. dollar have moved in the same direction.

    Given the recent rhetoric from Iran related to the Strait of Hormuz, the strength in the price of oil is not totally surprising. In December, Iran threatened to shut the Strait of Hormuz if sanctions were imposed on its oil exports. Subsequent to that announcement, Iran held a series of naval maneuvers over a period of ten days, just east of the strait.

    On Thursday, the latest gauntlet was thrown down over Iranian oil. After meetings with U.S. Treasury Secretary Tim Geithner, the Japanese indicated that they intend to reduce their imports of Iranian oil, which stand at roughly 10% of their total imports. Behind China at 20%, Japan is the second-largest importer of Iranian oil at approximately 17% of total Iranian exports. China, on the other hand, has been reluctant to cut its use of Iranian oil, though Premier Wen Jiabao is making his first trip to Saudi Arabia this weekend, which can be seen as an affront to Iran.

    The strategic relevance of the Strait of Hormuz is that more than one-fifth of the world's oil is transported through it. As oil is transported out of the Persian Gulf it passes through the Strait of Hormuz, which is 34 miles wide at its narrowest, before crossing in the Arabian Sea. Every day, about 14 tankers carrying 15.5 million barrels of crude oil pass through the strait.

    On Face the Nation this past Sunday, Joint Chiefs of Staff Chairman General Martin Dempsey was very specific in stating that the U.S. was prepared to act aggressively should Iran attempt to block the strait. "They've invested in capabilities that could, in fact, for a period of time block the Strait of Hormuz," he said. "We've invested in capabilities that ensure if that happens, we can defeat that."

    Defense Secretary Leon Panetta echoed these comments and also indicated that efforts by Iran to build a nuclear weapon would also constitute a "red line," which implies potential the need for U.S. retaliation.

    On the subject of nuclear weapons, according to the Iranian newspaper Kayhan, Iran has started to enrich uranium at its Fordo production facility. The Fordo plant is built into the side of a mountain near Qom, a Muslim holy city, which is located just south of Tehran. (Ironically, the Fordo location is also believed to be the site of the largest number of fatalities in the Iran-Iraq war.) This site was disclosed in 2009 and has been at the epicenter of the debate over whether Iran is on the path to nuclear weapons, or merely using this enrichment for energy purposes.

    Coincident with the strong language voice this weekend on "Meet the Press" by the Secretary of Defense and the Chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff, the Council on Foreign Relations publication, Foreign Affairs, featured an article by former Pentagon defense planner Matthew Kroenig titled, "Time to Attack Iran." His conclusion is simply that the U.S. has little choice but to attack, and the time to do so is now.