欧元区的死穴不是债务

效仿爱尔兰

    但这只是问题的一个方面。另一方面，来自德国、中国和美国的进口商品价格远低于意大利人和西班牙人过去购买的国产货。廉价的进口商品大批涌入，取代了西班牙、意大利国产商品。

    欧洲南部国家的经济泡沫破灭后，这些国家既无法通过扩大出口来恢复经济增速，国内产业又无力与进口商品竞争。它们的产品无论是在国际市场、还是在本国市场，都显得太昂贵了。

    欧洲南部国家正在尽自己的力量，试图恢复一点竞争力。西班牙、意大利和希腊的利率飙升最终缓和了薪资上涨的势头，因此单位劳动力成本已经停止攀升。但薪资增幅的放缓还远不足以让这些国家恢复到欧元诞生前的经济增速。

    南部国家已经陷入绝境。要将单位劳动力成本降至让他们具有国际竞争力的水平，欧洲南部国家只有两条道路。第一条是大幅降低薪资，否则就必须大幅提高生产率，出售效率低下的国有控股公司，清理限制性的劳动法规以及错综复杂、抑制竞争的法律法规。

    迄今为止，只有爱尔兰是选择了这条痛苦的道路。希腊、西班牙和意大利似乎无意跟进。它们目前没有实施严厉改革，但这并不意味着欧元一定会终结。

    “我不太相信弱国退出欧元区是不可避免的结局，” 达迪什说。“它们可以凭借减债和富国的拨款，继续留在欧元区。”不过，选择这条道路，未来西班牙、意大利和其他国家的经济增速将注定非常缓慢。

    第二条道路是恢复本国货币，选择大部分债务违约，但经济增速将高得多。欧元已然宣告失败。欧元区所有成员国的最优选择是彻底解除市场管制，享受本国货币的灵活性。如果欧洲南部国家选择第一条道路，他们将永远也不会成为富有活力的经济体。如果他们选择第二条道路，至少经济还能实现增长。

    欧元区不解体，危机就不会终结，它还会持续很长时间，在未来数年给全球经济前景蒙上阴影。长痛不如短痛。眼见前景黯淡，可能丧失出口和经济增长能力，欧元区弱国可能最终会转向他们现在还认为不可想象的解决方案，那就是退出这个货币联盟，尽管三年前他们还视欧元为救世主。

Following Ireland's lead

    That's only half the story. German, Chinese and American imports became far cheaper than domestically produced goods that Italians and Spaniards used to buy. A flood of cheap imports replaced goods that Spain or Italy used to make at home.

    When the domestic bubbles popped in the southern tier, their nations couldn't increase exports to restore growth, and their domestic industries frequently couldn't compete with imports. Their products were simply too expensive both on world markets, and in their own shops and supermarkets.

    The southern tier is doing its part to restore a bit of competitiveness. The sharp increase in rates for Spain, Italy and Greece has finally moderated the rise in wages, so that the unit labor cost gap is no longer growing. But wage growth isn't shrinking remotely fast enough to restore anything resembling the countries' pre-euro growth rates.

    The southern countries are in a box. They have only two options to lower their unit labor costs to the level where they can compete on the world stage: They must substantially lower wages, or they must become far more productive by selling off inefficient, state-controlled companies and eliminating restrictive labor laws and a maze of anti-competitive regulations.

    So far, Ireland is the only nation that has pursued that painful course. Greece, Spain and Italy show little inclination to follow. Their failure to enact draconian reforms doesn't necessarily spell the end to the euro.

    "I'm very hesitant to say that leaving the euro is inevitable for the weaker countries," says Dadush. "They can stay in with a combination of debt relief and grants from the richer countries." That course, however, sentences Spain, Italy and the others to a future of extremely slow growth.

    The alternative is to restore their own currencies, default on a big portion of their debt, and then grow far faster. The euro has failed. The best option is for all eurozone members to radically deregulate their markets, and also enjoy the flexibility of their own currencies. Unless they do the former, they will never become vibrant economies. But if they do the latter, at least they can grow again.

    If the eurozone stays together, the crisis won't end. It will drag on a lot longer, burdening the world economy with years of uncertainty. It may be best to take the pain now. Faced with grinding, stagnant future, unable to export or grow, the weaklings may eventually warm to the solution they now brand as unthinkable, an exit from a union that just three years ago looked like their salvation.