欧元何处见底？

    但还是有些分析师并没有排除这种可能性。野村外汇策略师詹斯•诺德维格在1月份的报告中指出，解体可能有两种方式。第一种是逐步瓦解，缘由是希腊或葡萄牙、或者两国的政府部门都没能如期推行改革，无法满足欧盟（European Union）救助方案提出的要求。诺德维格指出，在这种情况下，欧元可能继续存在，只有几个小国会改用自己新的本国货币。

    第二种的可能性小一些（但也不是完全不可能），即一旦欧元区大国（比如意大利）违约，可能引发欧元区全面解体。届时，欧元将被废止，欧洲央行将解体，所有的欧元区国家都将改用新的本国货币或组建新的货币联盟，也就是说，发行新货币，设立新央行。

    “欧洲决策层一直表示会‘竭尽所能’拯救欧元，”诺德维格在1月份的报告中称。“但魔鬼已经逃出了瓶子，对各种解体情形的讨论也已经更加公开化。”

    现在的问题是可能出现的欧元区解体到底将会如何展开。

    But that doesn't mean some aren't ruling the possibility out. In a January report, Nomura foreign exchange strategist Jens Nordvig said a break-up could play out two ways. First, it could happen gradually, whereby a political setback in Greece and/or Portugal lead the countries to miss requirements demanded by the European Union of its rescue packages. In that case, Nordvig noted, the euro will likely remain in existence since only a few smaller countries would end up adopting their own new national currencies.

    The less likely scenario – albeit, not entirely implausible – is the case of a full-blown break-up in the event that larger euro zone economies such as Italy default. The euro would then cease to exist, the European Central Bank would be dissolved and all euro zone countries would convert to new national currencies or perhaps form new currency unions with new currencies and a new central bank.

    "European policymakers continue to argue that they will do 'what is needed' to save the euro," Nordvig noted in his January report. "But the genie is out of the bottle, and various break-up scenarios are now being discussed more openly."

    The question is how a potential break-up could unfold.