向中国学习：前副财长呼吁美国扩大支出

你的新书建议美国应像中国一样进行基础设施支出以提振经济。但有人说，中国经济增长过快，可能硬着陆。你依然认为中国模式值得效仿吗？

    每年都有怀疑论者称，中国经济即将“撞墙”。但中国每年的GDP增速连续20年都超过了7%。近年来两国的数据对比更是差距显著。

    看看美国刚刚出炉的第三季度数据，美国实际GDP仅略高于金融危机前2007第三季度的数据。只高出了0.5个百分点。而同一时期，中国的GDP增长了40%。这个差距太大了，令人触目心惊。这么巨大的差异不容忽视，它说明中国人管理经济问题的一套做法一定有值得美国人学习的地方。

如果美国不减债，将来会不会像欧洲一样陷入债务危机？

    不会。欧洲的问题是欧元区17个成员国只有一家央行。假设希腊债券到期，投资者获得欧元偿付。他们不一定非得把这些钱放回希腊。他们可以把这些钱放到德国或其他欧元区国家。美国不可能出现这种情况。这些钱必须回到美国的金融系统。在英国，英镑必须回到英国的金融系统。而在中国，则必须回到中国的系统。欧洲的情况完全不同，这是欧洲很多聪明人还没搞明白的一个根本问题。

那么，美国债务可以一直、一直增长，不会出现任何问题。这个观点很大胆，您说呢？

    这个观点确实很大胆，但在逻辑上是成立的。

In your book, you suggest the U.S. should spend like China spends on infrastructure to boost its economy. But some say China's economy is growing too fast and could be in for a hard landing. Would you still say China is the right model to follow?

    Every year there are skeptics who say China is going to hit a brick wall. But for 20 years in a row, GDP has grown over 7% a year. The contrast recently is particularly striking.

    If you look at the third quarter figures that just came out for the U.S., in real terms, GDP in the U.S. is just barely above where it was prior to the crisis during the third quarter of 2007. It's only one half of one percent greater. During that same period, China's GDP is up 40%. It's just staggering. There's got to be something that we in America can learn from how China has been addressing its economic issues because this difference is too striking to ignore.

If the U.S. doesn't work to reduce its debt, couldn't we end up like debt-troubled Europe?

    No. The problem is that Europe has a central bank for the entire 17-nation eurozone. Suppose a Greek bond matures in Greece. Investors get paid in euros. They don't have to put that money back in Greece. They can put it in Germany or the other countries in the eurozone. In the U.S., that's not possible. It has to go back into the U.S. financial system. In the U.K., pounds have to go back into the U.K. financial system. And in China they have to go back into the Chinese system. Europe is a totally different situation, and its' a fundamental issue that a lot of smart people in Europe haven't grasped yet.

So U.S. debt can grow and grow and it shouldn't be a problem. That's a bold statement, isn't it?

    It's a bold statement but it's true – logically.