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欧洲银行甩卖问题资产

欧洲银行甩卖问题资产

Cyrus Sanati 2011-12-13
监管机构施压后,很多欧洲大银行都在折价出售资产和收缩资产负债表。近日旨在拯救欧元的欧盟领导人峰会决定放弃实施“私营部门参与救助(PSI)”机制,让欧洲银行业长舒了一口气,但它们身前还有很长的路要走。

举债扩张    

    过去十年很多时候,欧洲银行都在进行资产收购,希望成为规模庞大的全业务国际银行。有些银行并购的是其他欧洲银行,另一些银行则是收购了远离欧元区的一些海外银行。此外,欧洲银行还发行和购买了几十亿美元的证券化投资产品【如住宅按揭支持证券(RMBS)】,2008年这些产品很多都变成了有毒资产,再也无法收回。

    现在看来,欧洲银行通过提高杠杆比率、收购全球资产的做法有些过头了。欧元区银行体系目前持有约30万亿欧元的资产,是整个美国银行体系资产规模(约16万亿美元,合12万亿欧元)的2.5倍。如果欧元区的经济规模也比美国大出这么多,这样的资产规模差异才说得通,但实际情况并非如此。事实上,欧元区的GDP总量约为9.5万亿欧元,小于美国约11万亿欧元(145亿美元)的GDP规模。

    要救助一个资产规模是地区经济总产值三倍的银行体系,绝非易事。欧元区银行业监管机构——欧洲银行管理局(European Banking Authority,简称EBA)一直在敦促银行建立资本金缓冲机制,以应对欧洲各国挥霍支出可能带来的未来资产减值损失。上周四,EBA宣布,要想符合新的、更严格的资本金规定,银行体系须筹集1,147亿欧元——比10月份时他们估计的数额高出80亿欧元。随着当前欧元区危机导致银行业资产减值,这一数值不断攀升。

    大银行们终于意识到银行规模不一定越大越好,特别是如果是通过举债扩张的话。欧洲央行(European Central Bank)已积极行动起来,加固银行体系,避免出现像雷曼兄弟(Lehman)破产那样的流动性事件。虽然欧元的结构性问题依然存在,欧洲央行的举动已稳住了欧洲银行业的阵脚,或者至少给了它足够的时间完成瘦身。

    表面上看欧洲央行可以无休止地为欧洲银行业提供资金支持,但它似乎并不愿意这样做。这让欧洲银行业感到有收缩资产负债表的压力。为了达到EBA和巴塞尔委员会(Basel committee)提出的、更严格的新资本金要求,欧洲银行业已承诺未来几年合计出售约5万亿欧元的资产。

Large with leverage

    European banks spent much of the last decade acquiring assets in an attempt to become massive, full-service global banks. Some got bigger by merging with other European banks, while others plumped up by snapping up banks in foreign countries, far from the eurozone. The banks also issued and bought billions of dollars worth of securitized investment products, like residential mortgage-backed securities, RMBS, many of which turned toxic in 2008 and never recovered.

    It now looks like they went a bit overboard as they levered up to buy assets all over the world. The eurozone banking system currently holds about 30 trillion euros worth of assets. That's roughly two-and-a-half times larger than the entire U.S. banking system, which stands at around $16 trillion (12 trillion euro). Such a large gap may make sense if the eurozone's economy was much larger than that of the U.S., but it isn't. The eurozone's GDP is actually smaller, at around 9.5 trillion euros, where the U.S. GDP is around 11 trillion euros ($14.5 billion).

    It won't be an easy task to bail out a banking system with assets three times the size of the currency region's entire economic output. The European Banking Authority, the eurozone's banking regulator, has been pushing the banks to build their capital buffer so that they could absorb future losses derived from their spending spree. Yesterday, the EBA announced that the system had to raise 114.7 billion euros to quickly comply with new stringent capital rules -- 8 billion euros more than they had estimated back in October. The number grew as the value of the banks' assets deteriorated due to the current eurozone crisis.

    The big banks have finally realized that being bigger isn't necessarily better, especially when that largesse came by levering up. The European Central Bank has aggressively moved to shore up its banking system to prevent any liquidity event such as a Lehman-like collapse. While the structural issues with the euro remain, the ECB's actions have stabilized the continent's banking sector -- or at least bought it enough time to slim down.

    The ECB could ostensibly fund the European banks indefinitely, but it doesn't seem willing to do so. This has put pressure on the banks to reduce their balance sheets. The banks have in total pledged to shed around 5 trillion euros worth of assets in the coming years to comply with new, more stringent capital standards as demanded by the EBA and the Basel committee.

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