标普举起降级大棒，迫使欧洲央行出头

    如果到本周欧盟紧急峰会结束时欧元区还不能拿出一个真正可信的方案来解旷日持久的主权债务危机，标准普尔（Standard and Poor's）称，欧元区所有成员国——包括AAA评级的德国和法国——的评级可能都会被下调一档，甚至两档。周一该消息一传出，全球齐声惊呼。随后，亚欧市场出现大跌。愤怒的政客和专家门质问道：欧元区似乎好不容易要齐心协力采取行动了，标准普尔怎么能在这个时候这么干？

    理由很简单——欧元区领导人其实连解决危机的门都还没摸到。德法两国计划本周五在紧急峰会上推出的“新财政条约”力度还远远不够，不太可能终结这场似乎没有尽头的危机。在这个时候，除非欧洲央行（the European Central Bank）挺身而出，担当欧元区的最后贷款人，否则新财政条约就是一杆没装子弹的枪。标准普尔希望，欧元区评级可能面临大面积下调的前景或许能迫使这个内部差异很大的集团最终能同心协力地解决这场危机。

    周一，标准普尔等到美国市场收盘后宣布，已将欧元区15个成员国列入负面信贷观察名单。在其出具的说明性特别报告中，只有希腊（信贷评级为垃圾级）和塞浦路斯（早已列入负面信贷观察名单）未被列入。虽然本月外界对有些欧元区成员国（尤其是法国）的评级可能被下调早有预期，但标准普尔将整个欧元区纳入评级可能下调之列仍有点让人意外，包括奥地利、荷兰、芬兰和弹丸小国卢森堡等财政审慎的国家。

    标准普尔选择在在本周末关键的欧盟峰会前夕发布下调信用评级的预期绝非巧合。评级下调威胁就如同达摩克利斯之剑悬在成员国的头顶，意在引起相关国家的注意。

    “我们认为，这场危机深化和蔓延的风险已显著上升。考虑到欧洲货币联盟内部各个经济体和金融市场间的紧密相连，事态发展将席卷整个货币联盟，”标准普尔在报告中这样解释缘由。

    形势已经空前明朗。自从去年春天欧债危机首次爆发以来，欧元区成员国已举行了约23次高级别会议，讨论解决危机的各种方法。不幸的是，所有会谈都未能让欧盟成员国同心同德，以一个有凝聚力的集体思考问题。欧元区成员国中，仍然存在“我们和他们”这样的心态。北欧那些“财政审慎”的国家曾受益于弱势欧元和贸易区的扩大，现在却不愿承担这一红利带来的后果，不愿资助那些负债累累、“挥霍无度”的南欧国家，虽然后者的负债部分就是源于向北欧购买商品和服务。

    If the eurozone fails to present a truly viable plan to resolve the long-running sovereign debt crisis by the conclusion of this week's emergency EU summit, all of its members, including triple-A rated Germany and France, could see their credit ratings slashed by one or even two notches, according to Standard and Poor's. One could hear the collective gasps of shock around the world following yesterday's announcement. Markets later tumbled in Asia and Europe in response. Angry politicians and pundits asked: How could S&P do this now, just when the eurozone looks like it is finally getting it's act together?

    The reason is simple – eurozone leaders aren't even close to solving this crisis. The "new fiscal compact" that Germany and France plan to reveal at the emergency summit this Friday is weak and will most likely fail to put an end to this seemingly endless crisis. At this point, unless the European Central Bank steps up to become the eurozone's lender of last resort, the compact will be seen as a gun without ammunition. S&P hopes that the threat of a massive downgrade of the eurozone will force this disparate bunch to finally act collectively to solve this crisis.

    S&P waited till the end of U.S. trading on Monday to announce that they had put 15 members of the eurozone on negative credit watch. Only Greece, which has a junk credit rating, and Cyprus, which is already on negative credit watch, were spared from a special report from the credit rating agency explaining their move. While a downgrade of some of the eurozone's members was expected this month, most notably France, it came as a bit of a shock that S&P would put the entire eurozone on the chopping block, including fiscally prudent countries like Austria, the Netherlands, Finland and tiny Luxembourg.

    S&P's downgrade on the eve of a critical EU summit this weekend is no coincidence. The threat, hanging like the sword of Damocles over the head of the members, was meant to get their attention.

    "We believe that the risks of a deepening and broadening of the crisis have risen markedly and the repercussions of this development will in our view be felt across the monetary union, considering the interconnectedness of the EMU economies and financial markets," S&P wrote in a note explaining its move.

    It doesn't get any clearer than that. There have been around 23 high profile meetings among eurozone members since the crisis first broke out in the spring of last year to discuss ways to put this issue to bed. Unfortunately, all this talking has failed to get the members to think collectively as one cohesive unit. There is still an "us versus them" mentality among the eurozone members. The "fiscally prudent" nations from Northern Europe, which have benefitted from a weak euro and expanded trading zone, are unwilling to absorb the consequences of that perk by aiding the "profligate" southern European countries that have racked up tons of debt, due, in part, from buying goods and services from the north.