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巴菲特大手笔建仓蓝色巨人

巴菲特大手笔建仓蓝色巨人

Carol Loomis 2011-11-15
素以回避科技股著称的沃伦•巴菲特重磅投资了IBM,他掌管的伯克希尔哈撒韦仓位之大可能连IBM的超级电脑沃森都算不到。

    巴菲特买科技股了?没错,他刚刚投资了一家科技巨人,而且一出手就是上百亿美元。

    众所皆知,伯克希尔哈撒韦(Berkshire Hathaway)首席执行官沃伦•巴菲特素来对科技股敬而远之,但他今天向CNBC电视台表示,其公司逐步加仓,现已持有IBM的大量股份。伯克希尔今年豪掷约107亿美元,买下了6,400万股IBM股票,相当于该公司股票总额的5.5%。

    IBM去年营收将近1,000亿美元,在《财富》世界500强榜单(Fortune 500)上位列第18.。如此规模的大公司市值自然也很可观,这是巴菲特这次投资的先决条件:他需要为伯克希尔数以十亿美元计的资金找到新的投资方向,小盘股根本就无法吸纳伯克希尔的巨额资金,投资起来没什么意义。

    从今年3月起,巴菲特就耐心地持续买入IBM股票——6,400万股的仓位不是一夜就能建成的。根据他宣布的数字,6,400万股共花了107亿美元,意味着伯克希尔这笔投资的每股平均买入价是167美元(不过巴菲特本人今天早上在CNBC接受采访时说是170美元,想必是四舍五入了)。

    上周五,IBM股票收盘价为187.38美元,意味着伯克希尔目前已经获得了超过10%的收益。今年以来,IBM在股市上表现极佳,累计上涨超过25%,相比之下,道琼斯工业平均指数才涨了2%。

    根据IBM眼下的股价,伯克希尔所持6,400万股市值略超过120亿美元。伯克希尔每年的年报都会将所投资公司根据股票市值进行排名,倘若巴菲特今天将IBM列入其中,它将仅次于可口可乐(Coca-Cola)。伯克希尔目前持有2亿股可口可乐股票,市值约为136亿美元。

    巴菲特在CNBC侃侃而谈,盛赞IBM前任首席执行官郭士纳带领该公司走出困境,使其踏上增长轨道,最终又选定了一位一流的继承人彭明盛——后者于2002年接任。《财富》今年稍早些时候刊发了一篇关于彭明盛和IBM的文章【《IBM重振雄风》(IBM's Sam Palmisano: A super second act)】。正如文中所说,2002至2010年执掌公司期间,他使IBM年度每股盈利增长到11.52美元,扩大了IBM的业务覆盖范围,并拓展了超级计算机和分析业务——嘿,大家应该还记得智力竞赛节目《危险边缘》(Jeopardy)的赢家“沃森”(Watson)吧?

    更重要的是,在取得这些成就之前,彭明盛已经将计划公之于世,他实现了每一个目标。巴菲特对此深表赞许。他说,彭明盛“完美践行了计划”。

    彭明盛的目标之一正是让股东得到实实在在的回报,途径既包括分红——季度分红2002年以来增加了4倍——也包括回购大量IBM股票。彭明盛任内,IBM累计买回了超过30%的股票。

    巴菲特一贯坚信,如果某家公司股价市场估值过低,那就应该回购股票。很显然,他本人和彭明盛都认为IBM正是这样一家公司。早在上世纪八十年代,巴菲特就曾向《财富》杂志表示,以明智的价格回购股票近乎“测谎仪”,可以检验公司管理层是否真的是在为股东的利益行事。

    A tech stock for Buffett? Yes, a very big tech stock, and a walloping part of it, too.

    Warren Buffett, CEO of Berkshire Hathaway and up to now a famous avoider of tech stocks, disclosed today on CNBC that his company has accumulated a huge investment in IBM. Berkshire spent about $10.7 billion this year to buy 64 million IBM shares, acquiring a bold 5.5% stake in the company.

    IBM's nearly $100 billion in revenues last year made it the 18th-largest company in the Fortune 500. Companies of that size, sporting huge market caps as well, are a prerequisite for Buffett when he is doing what he wants to do -- commit billions of Berkshire's money to a new investment. Small-cap stocks just can't absorb enough of Berkshire's dollars to count.

    Buffett has been patiently buying IBM since March -- 64 million shares don't cascade in overnight. On the figures he's announced, $10.7 billion for 64 million IBM (IBM) shares, Berkshire's average cost-per-share works out to about $167 (though Buffett rounded that to $170 in his CNBC conversation this morning).

    IBM's stock closed last Friday at $187.38 a share, which means that Berkshire currently has a gain in its position of more than 10%. IBM has been a strong market leader this year, rising more than 25% versus a 2% rise for the Dow Jones Industrials.

    At IBM's current price, Berkshire's 64 million shares have a market value of a little more than $12 billion. Were Buffett today to list Berkshire's (BRKA) largest stockholdings, as he does every year in the company's annual report, IBM would rank behind only Coca-Cola (KO). Berkshire's 200 million shares of Coke have a current market value of about $13.6 billion.

    Talking on CNBC, Buffett complimented Lou Gerstner for picking IBM up off the ground, setting it on a growth path, and ultimately picking a first-class successor, Sam Palmisano, who became CEO in 2002. As Fortune noted in an article about Palmisano and IBM early this year (IBM's Sam Palmisano: A super second act), he has since 2002 powered earnings to $11.52 per share in 2010, broadened IBM's geographical reach, and expanded the company's supercomputing and analytics businesses—hello, Jeopardy champ Watson.

    What's more, Buffett approvingly noted that Palmisano has done it all with a stated, publicized plan and met every objective. Buffett said that Palmisano has "delivered big-time."

    One of Palmisano's goals was to return money to shareholders, both by raising IBM's dividend -- it's quintupled since 2002 -- and repurchasing large quantities of IBM's stock. In Palmisano's tenure, IBM has bought more than 30% of its shares.

    Buffett has always been a strong believer in companies buying their own stock when it's undervalued, which clearly both he and Palmisano have considered IBM to be. Commenting to Fortune in the 1980s about stock buybacks made at intelligent prices, Buffett said they were close to "a polygraph" for determining whether a management was acting in the shareholders' interest.

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