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投资理财

眼下是抄底摩根士丹利的良机吗?

Anne VanderMey 2011年10月27日

2月份以来摩根士丹利股价已跌去50%。现在是出手买入的时候吗?还是说股价会继续下跌?且看看涨者和看跌者的正面交锋。

    看涨者:海纳国际集团(Susquehanna Financial Group)高级分析师大卫•希尔德

    摩根士丹利(Morgan Stanley)拥有强大的全球投资银行业务和美国最庞大的零售经纪业务。将来当经济环境好转后,摩根士丹利的全球投资银行业务将创造的利润将大幅增加。当然也有不确定因素:资本金要求最终将如何调整?哪些自营交易可获准进行?den等但以有形资产估算值的52%买到这样一家有实力的金融服务公司的股票,这样的机会非常难得。另外,在08年金融危机之后,该公司的固定收益交易可能收缩过度,现在正在重新扩张并带来良好收益。而且,近期有关欧洲债务敞口的担忧也可能过头了。该股当前价位为14美元,我们的12个月目标价为27美元。

    看跌者:美国农业银行信贷证券公司(Credit Agricole Securities)分析师迈克•梅奥

    摩根士丹利现在手头有一大堆事。公司正在重组销售和交易业务,财富管理项目还在进行中,资产管理业务的改组尚未启动。公司事务千头万绪,再碰上这么多新到任的管理人员,很容易搞砸。该公司过去十年的大方向也是忽左忽右,摇摆不定,有时该少担一些风险的时候,公司却承担了太多的风险。鉴于过去的风险管理失误曾造成账面价值减记,我对该公司的有形资产账面价值持保留态度。目前,这只股票可能看起来便宜,但在最差的2008年,该股股价仅及其宣称账面价值的25%。这是一家非常不善于应对风险的公司,而目前的市场风险却接近历史高点。

    The bull: David Hilder, Senior Analyst, Susquehanna Financial Group

    Morgan Stanley (MS) has a great global investment-banking franchise and the largest retail brokerage force in the U.S. At some point, in a more robust economic environment, that franchise is going to generate a lot more profit. There are clearly uncertainties: what capital requirements are ultimately going to be or what type of proprietary trading will be allowed. But it's rare that you can buy a great financial services franchise for 52% of the company's estimate of its tangible value. Additionally, after the financial crisis, the company probably cut back too much on fixed-income trading, which it's now rebuilding with good results. And the recent fears of European exposure are likely overblown. The stock is trading at $14; our 12-month target is $27.

    The bear: Mike Mayo, Analyst, Credit Agricole Securities

    Morgan Stanley has many irons in the fire. It's restructuring sales and trading, wealth management is a work in progress, and the revamping of asset management is still to come. When you have that many irons in the fire, and many new executives, it's easier to get burned. The company has a decade-long record of flip-flops, and at times they took too much risk when they should've taken less. I question their tangible book value number, given past risk-management mishaps that caused book value to get written down. The stock may look cheap, but in a worst-case scenario, in 2008, it traded as low as 25% of its claimed book value. This is a company that's handled risk very poorly at a time when risk is close to an all-time high.

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