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欧洲亟需更大规模的救助

Cyrus Sanati 2011年10月19日

市场最终将不得不考虑欧洲救助基金耗尽后将会出现什么局面。如果欧洲金融稳定基金未能实现扩容,可能将加进一步深市场焦虑情绪,使欧洲重新回到起点。

    

德意志银行(Deutsche Bank)总部

    随着欧债及银行业危机接近尾声的希望上升,近几周市场出现了反弹。但问题是,这场危机远未结束。上周欧元区全部17个成员国批准对欧元区救助基金进行扩容,但此举只是努力使欧洲资本市场恢复正常所需要的第一步。

    真正的难题尚未解决。欧洲银行业仍需注资,欧元区边缘国家的主权债务需进一步削减,新近扩容的救助基金需要进一步扩大规模——大大超过现有容量。

    上周末,美国、中国等二十国集团(G20)财长要求欧洲在本周日前针对上述所有问题制定一个全面的计划。欧洲已经接受了这一紧迫的时间限制,但围绕如何解决这些棘手问题,仍然存在很大分歧。即便欧洲能够成功提交这份计划,它能否在早已对救助心生厌倦的欧洲民众新一轮投票中获得通过仍是一个问题。

    欧洲危机已持续近两年半,一直没有得到解决。期间,市场多次迫使欧洲在一连串的债市和股市恐慌中采取行动,最近一次市场恐慌导致8、9月份股市大跌。每次出现恐慌时,政府都会采取一些的权益之计,甚至只是口头的承诺,但这些举措只能算是给一个汩汩流血的伤口贴上了一张小小的创可贴。

    由于欧元区领导人有望最终达成一致行动,周一早间欧洲股市延续两年来最大的周涨幅。此轮反弹的中心看来是上周欧洲金融稳定基金(the European Financial Stability Facility)成功扩容至4,400亿欧元(6,110亿美元)的消息。扩容一事花了漫长的3个月时间才获得欧元区所有17个成员国的同意,在此期间市场曾经多次处于崩盘的边缘。

    不过,虽然EFSF扩容朝着解决危机迈出了一大步,但不幸的是这只是完成这幅复杂的经济拼图的第一块。上周末在巴黎开会的二十国集团财长和央行行长们敦促欧洲采取更多行动。

希腊问题

    Markets have rallied in the last few weeks amid increased hope that the European debt and banking crisis was nearing an end. Trouble is, the crisis is far from over. The passage of the enlarged euro zone bailout fund last week by all 17 euro zone members is just the first step required to bring any sense of normalcy back to the continental capital markets.

    The real hard stuff has yet to be hammered out. European banks still need to be recapitalized, further haircuts are needed on the sovereign debt of the peripheral euro zone nations and the newly enlarged bailout fund needs to get bigger – a lot bigger.

    Over the weekend, the finance ministers of the G20, which includes the United States and China, gave Europe until next Sunday to come up with a plan that addresses all of the above concerns in a comprehensive plan. Europeans have accepted the tight deadline, but there still remain deep divisions as to how to resolve these thorny issues. And even if they are successful, there is doubt as to whether such a plan could withstand another round of voting by the bailout-fatigued European populace.

    The European crisis has been chugging along for almost two-and-a-half years now without resolution. The market has forced the Europeans to act over that time through a myriad of scares in the bond and equity markets, with the latest flare-up sending stocks tumbling in August and September. But each was met by some short-term fix or promise, which was tantamount to putting a small band-aid over a gushing wound.

    The equity markets this morning in Europe extended their greatest weekly gain in the last two years on the hopes that leaders of the euro zone have finally gotten their act together. The centerpiece of this rally appears to be the successful enlargement last week of the European Financial Stability Facility (EFSF) to 440 billion euros ($611 billion). Getting all 17 members to agree to the enlargement took three very long months, in which time the markets were brought to the brink of capitulation on several occasions.

    But while enlarging the EFSF was a big step forward to resolving this crisis, it is unfortunately just the first piece needed to complete this complicated economic puzzle. Meeting in Paris over the weekend, the finance ministers and central bank chiefs of the G20 pushed Europe to do much more.

The Greece problem

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