但是，这种积极局面可能即将结束。因为在过去的几个交易期中，新兴市场首当其冲，经济遭受重创。摩根士丹利资本国际（Morgan Stanley Capital International, MSCI）新兴市场指数本周下跌11个百分点，为2008年以来的最大跌幅。韩国综合指数昨晚收盘下跌5.73%，报收1,697点，创15个月以来的最低水平。菲律宾也遭遇了同样的命运，以跌幅5.13%收盘。素有亚洲股市“风向标”之称的中国香港恒生指数，本周以9%的跌幅收盘，成为2008年10月份以来跌幅最大的一周。更糟糕的是，在过去的一年里，大部分新兴市场国家的货币兑美元汇率一直保持良好的上升趋势，但在上周却出现了回落。
The European economic contagion is threatening to become a worldwide flu as the financial turmoil spreads to the once high-flying emerging market economies. Stock indices from South Korea to Russia to Brazil plummeted on Thursday and continued their sell off on Friday amid fears that a global recession may be underway. The "risk off" trade has now enveloped nearly every asset class at this point, leaving just the U.S. dollar as the world's sole safe haven investment.
But the economic fundamentals may be on the side of the emerging markets, setting them up for a major relief rally once the panic has abated. Swift action is needed by the governments of these countries to make sure that their economies can survive this market rout and re-emerge as strong investment alternatives for Wall Street.
The emerging markets have been the darlings of Wall Street for the last two years as investors sought yield amid anemic growth rates in the U.S. Commodity-driven economies like Brazil and Russia as well as export-driven economies like China and South Korea have delivered double-digit percentage returns to equity and currency investors, outperforming established economies. Investment dollars flowed freely out of U.S. and European stock markets and pumped up those in Asia and Latin America, while currency traders took out short dollar positions, raising the value of emerging market currencies versus the greenback, especially in Brazil and Australia. So far this year, inflows into emerging market fixed income funds alone were $36 billion, according to JP Morgan (JPM).
But that may all be coming to an end. It was the emerging markets that took the brunt of the burn of the last few trading sessions, with the MSCI Emerging Markets Index losing 11% on the week, its biggest loss since 2008. Stocks in Korea closed overnight down 5.73% to 1,697, that market's lowest close in 15 months. It was the same story in the Philippines, which closed down 5.13%. And the Asian benchmark Hang Seng Index in Hong Kong closed the week down 9%, its worst weekly loss since October 2008. To make matters worse, most emerging market currencies have reversed their gains for the whole year against the U.S. dollar in just the last week.
Total emerging market equity funds have seen $1.4 billion in redemptions for the week ended September 21st, the latest data available from exchanges. There are no signs of the sell-off abating, with $183 million of outflows seen just in Korea on Friday.
The vast majority of this selling occurred following the Fed's announcement of its new "Operation Twist" plan Wednesday afternoon. The markets felt that the Fed action, which hopes to lower long-term interest rates, would not be as effective as another round of quantitative easing. Inflation fears caused investors to start pulling out of the emerging markets Thursday morning, which exacerbated the sell-offs around the globe.