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投资理财

新兴市场难逃经济流感,国内消费维系反弹希望

Cyrus Sanati 2011年09月27日

欧洲债务危机如瘟疫般席卷全球,新兴市场也难以幸免。即便如此,各新兴市场经济体仍然独具优势——即国内市场对商品和服务需求的持续增长。

    随着欧洲债务危机正在向高速发展的新兴市场经济蔓延,始于欧洲的这场经济瘟疫正逐渐演变成一场世界范围内的“大流感”。由于担心全球经济将再次陷入衰退,上周四,韩国、俄罗斯和巴西的股市纷纷出现大幅下跌,抛售风潮一直持续到周五。目前的“止损”交易范围已经扩大到几乎所有资产类别,只有美元依然是投资者心目中唯一的“避风港”。

    但从经济基本面来看,新兴市场似乎更具优势,一旦危机恐慌有所缓解,这些国家将会出现大规模的经济反弹。这就要求新兴市场国家政府采取快速有效的措施,以保证本国经济能够挺过眼下的市场动荡,继而以强大的投资市场新身份重新亮相,吸引更多的华尔街投资者。

    过去两年间,美国经济疲软,因此为了获得收益,华尔街投资者纷纷瞄准了新兴市场。例如,巴西和俄罗斯等以大宗商品为主的经济体以及中国和韩国等以出口为主的经济体为华尔街的股票及外汇投资商带来了两位数增长比例的经济回报,远远高于发达经济体。结果,投资于欧美股票市场的美元畅通无阻的流出,与此同时,亚洲和拉丁美洲国家股市的美元数量大幅增长;而在外汇交易方面,外汇交易商纷纷回补美元空头仓位,导致新兴市场经济体的货币币值较美元有所提升——在巴西和澳大利亚两国尤甚。摩根大通集团(JP Morgan)发布的数据显示,到目前为止,仅今年流入新兴市场的固定收入类资金一项就突破360亿美元。

    但是,这种积极局面可能即将结束。因为在过去的几个交易期中,新兴市场首当其冲,经济遭受重创。摩根士丹利资本国际(Morgan Stanley Capital International, MSCI)新兴市场指数本周下跌11个百分点,为2008年以来的最大跌幅。韩国综合指数昨晚收盘下跌5.73%,报收1,697点,创15个月以来的最低水平。菲律宾也遭遇了同样的命运,以跌幅5.13%收盘。素有亚洲股市“风向标”之称的中国香港恒生指数,本周以9%的跌幅收盘,成为2008年10月份以来跌幅最大的一周。更糟糕的是,在过去的一年里,大部分新兴市场国家的货币兑美元汇率一直保持良好的上升趋势,但在上周却出现了回落。

    股票交易中心最新数据显示,截至9月21日的最近一周内,新兴市场股票基金共有14亿美元资金净流出。并且,没有任何迹象显示,新兴市场的股票抛售浪潮将会有所减缓。周五,仅韩国的资金流出便达到了1.83亿美元。

    上周三下午,美联储(Fed)宣布推行新的“长短期利率行动”(Operation Twist)计划,紧接着各新兴市场便出现了抛售浪潮。美联储此举旨在降低长期利率,但市场普遍认为,相对于其之前施行的量化宽松政策,这项措施的效果有限。出于对通货膨胀的担忧,上周四上午,投资者纷纷开始撤离新兴市场,进一步加剧了全球范围内的股票抛售。

    The European economic contagion is threatening to become a worldwide flu as the financial turmoil spreads to the once high-flying emerging market economies. Stock indices from South Korea to Russia to Brazil plummeted on Thursday and continued their sell off on Friday amid fears that a global recession may be underway. The "risk off" trade has now enveloped nearly every asset class at this point, leaving just the U.S. dollar as the world's sole safe haven investment.

    But the economic fundamentals may be on the side of the emerging markets, setting them up for a major relief rally once the panic has abated. Swift action is needed by the governments of these countries to make sure that their economies can survive this market rout and re-emerge as strong investment alternatives for Wall Street.

    The emerging markets have been the darlings of Wall Street for the last two years as investors sought yield amid anemic growth rates in the U.S. Commodity-driven economies like Brazil and Russia as well as export-driven economies like China and South Korea have delivered double-digit percentage returns to equity and currency investors, outperforming established economies. Investment dollars flowed freely out of U.S. and European stock markets and pumped up those in Asia and Latin America, while currency traders took out short dollar positions, raising the value of emerging market currencies versus the greenback, especially in Brazil and Australia. So far this year, inflows into emerging market fixed income funds alone were $36 billion, according to JP Morgan (JPM).

    But that may all be coming to an end. It was the emerging markets that took the brunt of the burn of the last few trading sessions, with the MSCI Emerging Markets Index losing 11% on the week, its biggest loss since 2008. Stocks in Korea closed overnight down 5.73% to 1,697, that market's lowest close in 15 months. It was the same story in the Philippines, which closed down 5.13%. And the Asian benchmark Hang Seng Index in Hong Kong closed the week down 9%, its worst weekly loss since October 2008. To make matters worse, most emerging market currencies have reversed their gains for the whole year against the U.S. dollar in just the last week.

    Total emerging market equity funds have seen $1.4 billion in redemptions for the week ended September 21st, the latest data available from exchanges. There are no signs of the sell-off abating, with $183 million of outflows seen just in Korea on Friday.

    The vast majority of this selling occurred following the Fed's announcement of its new "Operation Twist" plan Wednesday afternoon. The markets felt that the Fed action, which hopes to lower long-term interest rates, would not be as effective as another round of quantitative easing. Inflation fears caused investors to start pulling out of the emerging markets Thursday morning, which exacerbated the sell-offs around the globe.

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