美国经济恢复四大怪现象
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政府工作的流失：在经济危机最严重的时期，私人部门的裁员人数可能数以百万计。与此同时政府部门也裁掉了大量人员，这更给经济恢复蒙上了一层阴影。例如今年七月，私人部门虽然新增了154,000个就业岗位，但与此同时公共部门却裁掉了37,000个岗位，抵消了这一利好因素的效果。 美国经济政策研究所（Economic Policy Institute）最近公布的一份报告显示，与经济刚刚开始恢复时相比，政府部门的佣工率反而下降了1.9%，也就是说损失了43万个工作岗位。相比之下， 2000年那次经济危机后的恢复期，政府佣工率增长了1.1%，也就是为经济填加了23.2万个工作岗位。 现在政府部门里之所以哀鸿遍野，很多人被迫卷铺盖回家，很大程度上是由于政府税收收入下降，但失业和医疗保险上的支出却出现了激增。各州和各地方政府由于无法合法地保持高额赤字（不像联邦政府），因此为了填补预算上的巨大漏洞，只好以前所未有的力度进行裁员。而且这种趋势很有可能会持续下去。不光是州政府和地方政府可能继续裁员，现在为了减轻美国1.5万亿美元的庞大赤字，国会已经成立了一个特别委员会，如果特别委员会认为有必要的话，甚至连联邦政府都可能裁员。 消费支出：金融危机之前的那几年，美国家庭显然在花钱上过于大手大脚了。金融危机爆发后，美国家庭一直在努力改善财务状况，但仍然离危机前那种多消费、少储蓄的水平差得很远。 消费目前占美国经济的比重大约为70%上下。在经济危机最严重的时期，美国消费出现了显著下降，即便是在整个恢复时期里也依然低迷不振。不过纽约联邦储备银行（the Federal Reserve Bank of New York）近日指出，美国家庭减少了在教育、娱乐和外出就餐等个人可支配性服务上的支出，这是个不同寻常的现象。 经济危机时期，这些奢侈性消费的下降在某种程度上又导致实际GDP的下滑。美国的实际GDP下跌了近7%，跌幅是上世纪80年代经济危机的两倍还多。 住房：在经济恢复时期，房地产业一般会强势反弹，促进总体经济的增长。 毫无疑问，这次经济恢复时期是个例外。而且短期内房地产市场也不见得有反弹的可能了，因为随着大量房主丧失了抵押品赎回权，许多房产重新流入已经供应过剩的房市，因此预计房价还会降得更低。 这不仅会对房屋销售造成影响，同时还意味着消费者在家具、家电以及其它与住房相关的产品和服务上的支出也会减少。 伯南克承认，制订推动经济长期稳健发展的经济政策已经超出了央行的权力范围。伯南克已经敦促华盛顿的立法者们采取“积极的、前摄性的住房政策”，来给萧条的房地产市场解套。 译者：朴成奎 |
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Government job loss: The private sector may have shed millions of jobs during the depths of the latest recession, but part of what has added to the persistent gloom of the economic recovery is the slash in government jobs. For instance in July, the private sector added 154,000 jobs but the bump was counteracted by the fact that the economy shed 37,000 public-sector jobs. Government employment today is about 1.9% lower than it was at the start of the recovery, a fall of 430,000 jobs, according to a recent report by the Economic Policy Institute. By contrast, government employment rose by 1.1% or 232,000 jobs during the same stage of the recovery following the 2000 recession. The stubborn woes of today's government job market have been largely due to falling tax revenues while spending on unemployment and Medicaid has surged. State and local governments, unable to legally run deficits (unlike the federal government), have been dealing with glaring budget holes by slashing headcount at an unprecedented rate. And that likely will continue – not only at the state and local level, but also the federal level depending how a special congressional committee assigned to reduce America's debt decides to find $1.5 trillion in savings. Consumer spending: In the years leading up to the latest recession, households clearly overspent. They've since been working to improve their finances but we're still a long way from the point where household debt levels fall where consumers feel comfortable spending more and saving less. Consumption, which makes up roughly 70% of the U.S. economy, dropped off significantly during the depths of the recession and has continued to be slow through the economic recovery. But as the Federal Reserve Bank of New York recently noted, what has been unusual is the decline in spending on discretionary services like education, entertainment and meals at restaurants. Spending on such luxuries partly drove the decline of real GDP during the latest recession. It is down nearly 7% -- more than double the percentage decline seen in the early 1980s recession. Housing: During most economic recoveries, the housing industry typically rebounded in a big way and helped drive overall growth. Needless to say, this hasn't played out this time. And it become less likely that it will, given expectations that home prices could fall further as an onslaught of foreclosures could eventually seep into the housing market already in excess. This not only impacts home sales, but it also means consumers will spend less on furniture and appliances and other housing-related goods and services. Bernanke, acknowledging that economic policies supporting strong economic growth in the long run are beyond powers of the central bank, has urged Washington lawmakers to adopt "good, proactive housing policies" to undo the depressed real estate market. |
