顶级投资人回顾股市惊魂一周

    直到上周三两点时，汤姆‧佛瑞斯特仍然觉得自己是个英雄。他是2008年唯一一个挣到钱的股票共同基金经理。刚刚过去的24小时内，他花了1千万美元买进股票。上周二道琼斯工业平均指数（Dow Jones Industrial Average）从低位大涨。然后，突然之间， 该指数在次日狂跌了350个点，以大跌收盘。佛瑞斯特说：“当时我们想，天啊，不会吧。”他的弗瑞斯特价值基金（Forester Value fund ）今年的业绩好于98%的竞争对手。

    对普通人甚至地球上最精明的投资人来说，上一周都十分诡异，佛瑞斯特的经历充分说明了这点。佛瑞斯特与华尔街众多的交易员不同，他不做短线交易。他是个悠闲的中西部人，住在芝加哥城外。每天开着一辆2006款阿库拉越野车（Acura S.U.V）去上班。车是两年前买的二手车，买来时就已经开了3万9千英里（62,764.42公里）。他喜欢买进优质公司的股票，长期持有。但是，股市上周的剧烈震荡让佛瑞斯特也感到迷惑，震惊，筋疲力尽。

周一：道指下跌5.6%

    佛瑞斯特今年52岁。他周一早晨进办公室时还认为标普（Standard & Poor's ）下调美国债务评级不会对股市带来太大的影响。他说，“我不认为有什么大不了的。”有一小会，他的看法没错。股市在开市后很快有所回升。他说：“但其实我大错特错。”周一道指下跌了5.6%，是自金融危机以来最大的单日跌幅。

    佛瑞斯特一直都认为美国处在十字路口。他给投资人的信函中满是对美国和欧洲债务增长的忧虑。他一直在质疑美联储（Fed）的量化宽松政策取得的实效。现在国会就债务上限陷入僵局，利率已经为零，他想知道如果经济持续下滑，美国政府还有什么措施。

    由于担忧加剧，自从五月以来，佛瑞斯特管理的1.60亿美元基金开始囤积现金，并 购买指数看跌期权，目的都是在市场下滑的时候保护自己的基金。目前为止，他的做法都是奏效的。晨星公司（Morningstar）称，截至周五弗瑞斯特价值基金在2011年上涨了0.5%，（而标普500指数则是大幅下跌了5.5%）在1,115家基金公司中排名第14。

    但是周一股市暴跌之后，佛瑞斯特看着手头的指数看跌期权，心想，“我真该多买点。”

周二：道指上涨4%

    佛瑞斯特周一睡得很不安稳。周二，照例是10分钟的车程去上班，路上还听着美国全国广播公司财经频道（CNBC）的广播。股指期货显示市场正在回归。他感到一丝释然。但是当天下午美联储发表一份声明之后，股市再次狂跌，佛瑞斯特不知所措了。

    他想，现在到底是1987年，市场最终会慢慢恢复；还是2008年，噩梦才刚刚开始。他想起了这周早些时候法国银行巨头兴业银行（Société Générale）要倒闭的传言。他说：“这是2008年的重现。”

    虽然很担忧，但是周二佛瑞斯特还是隐约觉得应该采取行动。他开始看好市场。股市从2011年的高峰值下滑了20%，美国的经济情况也没有太多的改变。他开始减少手头的指数看跌期权，增持基金中的公司股票。下午股市大涨之后，佛瑞斯特认为一切终于回归正轨。当日，道琼斯工业平均指数和标普500（S&P 500）均上涨近5%。

    By 2 o'clock last Wednesday, Tom Forester was feeling like a hero. The investor, the only stock mutual fund manager to make money in 2008, had just spent almost $10 million over 24 hours buying stocks. The Dow Jones Industrial Average was showing big gains since its low that day. Then, in an instant, the index plunged 350 points and finished deep in the red. "And we're thinking, uh oh," says Forester, whose Forester Value fund (FVALX) is beating 98% of rivals this year.

    To understand how bizarre last week was not just for ordinary folk but even the planet's smartest investors, Forester's story is illustrative. He's not a day trader like many on Wall Street. He's a laid back Midwesterner who lives outside Chicago. He drives to work everyday in a 2006 Acura S.U.V. that he bought two years ago with 39,000 miles on it. He tends to buy stocks in quality companies that he can hold for a long time. Still, the stock market's wild swings last week left even Forester confused, shaken, and utterly exhausted.

Monday: Dow -5.6%

    Forester, 52, arrived at his office Monday expecting few aftershocks from Standard & Poor's downgrade of U.S. debt. "I didn't think it would be that big of a deal," he says. And for a while he was right. Stocks recovered a little soon after the open. "Then I was real wrong," he says. The Dow Jones Industrial Index finished Monday down 5.6%, its worst decline since the financial crisis.

    Forester has long believed the U.S. is at a crossroads. His investor letters are filled with worry over rising debts in America and Europe. He's questioned how much the Fed has accomplished with quantitative easing. With Congress gridlocked and interest rates already at zero, he also wonders whether government can do anything for the U.S. economy if it hits the skids.

    Since May, Forester has stockpiled cash and purchased index puts in his $160 million fund -- both moves that protect the fund during market declines -- because of his rising worries. The moves have been right so far. As of Friday, the fund had gained 0.5% in 2011 (compared to the S&P's 5.5% slump) to beat all but 13 of 1,115 fund rivals, says Morningstar.

    But after Monday's bloodbath, Forester was looking at the index puts and thinking, "Wow, I wish I had a lot more of these things."

Tuesday: Dow +4%

    He slept horribly Monday. On Tuesday he drove his usual 10 minutes into work listening to CNBC on satellite radio. Stock futures indicated that the market was coming back. He felt a little relief. But when stocks collapsed after a Fed announcement later that afternoon, he was paralyzed.

    "Is it 1987, when everything comes back over time, or is it 2008, when it's just the beginning?" Forester was thinking. He thought back to a rumor earlier in the week that the big French bank Société Générale was going under. "That is 2008-esque," he says.

    For all his worries, Forester had a nagging feeling Tuesday that he needed to act. He was turning bullish. Stocks were down 20% from their highs during 2011 and the U.S. economic news hadn't changed too much. He starting reducing the index puts and buying more shares of the companies in his fund. After a big afternoon run-up, Forester thought everything might be back on track. Both the Dow Jones Industrial Average and S&P 500 index had gained nearly 5% on the day.