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看跌石油股的五大原因

Lou Gagliardi, Hedgeye 2011年06月21日

随着宏观经济因素的持续恶化,眼下正是卖空石油股、买进美元的最佳时机。

    目前,由于宏观经济因素的持续恶化,我们更倾向于看跌石油股。同时,美联储(Fed)的第二轮量化宽松政策即将结束;而且,随着欧盟逐步将外围国家的财政失衡社会化,欧元也出现小幅上涨,因此,我们看多美元。有一点是肯定的,那就是,至少在短期内,强势的美元必然会给能源股带来一些麻烦。

    石油股面临的五个直接风险包括:

1. 全球增速正在放缓。

    从今年年初开始,我们反复提到一个问题,即美国国内因失业导致的滞胀;而最近公布的就业数据也证实了这一点。但是,面临经济困境的不仅仅是美国——受“欧猪五国”(PIIGS)的拖累,欧盟的发展也受到了影响,最近公布的采购经理人指数(PMI)数据便可以证明这一点;而新兴市场则由于商品通胀而陷入困境。总之,全球增速正在放缓。这一切使得全球股市普遍低迷,尤其是严重依赖石油和天然气消费的能源股。

    We are now leaning more bearish on oil equities, mainly due to worsening macro factors. We've also turned bullish on the U.S. Dollar (USD) as the Fed's second round of quantitative easing is ending and there's little upside to the euro as the EU continues to socialize the periphery's fiscal imbalances at every step. Of course, a strong USD is trouble for energy equities, at least in the immediate-term.

    There are five immediate risks to oil stocks.

1. Global growth is slowing.

    The latest employment data confirms what we've been harping on since the beginning of the year – jobless stagflation in the U.S. But it is not just the U.S. facing economic woes – the European Union is weighed down by the PIIGS, evidenced by the most recent PMI readings, and emerging markets are choking on commodity inflation. In short, global growth is slowing. That is bearish for equities generally, but for energy equities in particular, which rely heavily on oil and gas consumption.

2. 美元看涨。

    原油与美元的负相关性从年初至今已高达90%;可以看出,美元越坚挺,石油股面临的下跌风险便越大。这将使能源股,尤其是石油权重公司(如含油砂开采公司),面临更大的下跌风险。如下图所示,当美元从长期平均数逐渐接近2.0标准差时,便会开始大幅回调,而能源股的相关风险便会加重。现在,我们即将接近这一临界点。

2. We are bullish on the U.S. dollar.

    A stronger U.S. dollar lends to greater downside risk for oil equities, given the high inverse correlation between crude oil and the USD, running at -.90 YTD. This leaves energy equities, particularly high oil-weighted companies (like oil sands) exposed to greater downside risk. As the chart below demonstrates, when the U.S. Dollar draws near 2.0 standard deviations from its long-term average, its correction is sharp and the correlation risk to energy stocks is acute. Right now we are nearing that tipping point.

3. 美国国内石油供需基本面表现疲软。

    最近,美国石油供大于求的情况并未出现任何改善的趋势,交通燃油更是如此。最新公布的库存报告显示,今年美国阵亡将士纪念日(Memorial Day)之前的原油与车用汽油库存一反常态,出现了大幅上升。有鉴于此,今年夏天驾驶季的车用燃油消费不容乐观。

    此外,据万事达(Mastercard)报道,石油消费(需求)比去年同期下降了2%。但石油库存却远远超过去年的水平和5年平均水平。而且,尽管汽油消费比去年同期下降了2%,但由于炼油企业一味追求高额的利润,汽油库存依然逆市增加。然而,炼油企业的所谓高额利润只是因为美国西得克萨斯中质原油(WTI)对轻质和无硫原油的折扣而出现的“人为”推高的结果,并不是因为消费的增加;所以,尽管汽油与石油库存在不断增加,但炼油行业的利润却开始下降。因此,目前,我们尤为看跌美国的炼油业。

3. The supply-demand fundamentals for petroleum in the U.S. are weak.

    We have not seen improving trends in U.S. petroleum supply-demand picture of late, particularly for transportation fuels. Summer driving season may be challenging this year for motor fuel consumption, as the latest inventory report was decidedly bearish – crude oil and motor gasoline stocks built ahead of Memorial Day, rather than the typical drawdown.

    Furthermore, consumption (demand), as reported by Mastercard, continues to run at -2% year-over-year. Oil inventory is well-above last year's level and the 5-year average. Likewise, gasoline inventories are building counter-cyclically as refiners chase stubbornly high cracking margins and consumption runs at -2% year-over-year. And refining margins are being "artificially" held up by WTI's discount to other light, sweet crudes, and not by increased consumption; gasoline and crude inventories are building just as refining margins are declining. We are especially bearish on the U.S. refining industry right now.

4. 对石油看涨过于乐观。

    WTI原油已经跌至每桶100美元。我们认为,其中一个主要原因是,舆论过于看好大宗商品的行情。投资者对石油仍然过于乐观,买进与卖出期货的价差超过20年平均数3个标准偏差(见下图)。我们认为,今年夏天,石油价格将跌至每桶88美元。

4. Sentiment on oil is too bullish.

    WTI crude oil has slipped below $100/bbl and we think one of the main reasons was that consensus was too long the commodity. We think that investors are still too bullish on oil, with the spread between long and short futures contracts 3 standard deviations above the 20-year mean (see below chart). Our call on oil is that it touches $88.00/bbl this summer.

5. 能源公司的利润将会在今年的第二、三季度出现缩水。

    能源部门依然面临成本不断上涨的压力,因此,我们认为,在2011年接下来的两个季度,能源部门的利润将会下降,尤其是在需求持续疲软的情况下,每桶90至100美元的原油价格无法提供足够的支持。总体上,今年第一季度的利润已经开始下降——而我们预计未来下降的速度将会加快。

    目前,买进的机会就摆在人们的眼前。我们认为,当前,石油股面临诸多压力,其中最主要的是疲软的宏观环境,以及美元上涨的趋势。从长期来看,我们依然看好石油和石油权重公司的行情,比如含油砂开采公司(SU、CVE、MEG、STP与ATH),但我们认为,短期内石油股要继续上涨,将面临越来越多的困难。

5. Energy companies will see margin compression in the second and third quarters.

    We continue to see mounting cost pressures across the energy sector that we believe will narrow margins in the next two quarters of 2011, particularly as crude prices in the $90 to $100/bbl range may not provide much support if demand remains weak. By-and-large margins tightened in Q1 – we expect that to accelerate.

    Better buying opportunities lie ahead.We see too many headwinds in the immediate-term for oil equities, the strongest of which being the weak macro environment and our bullish call on the USD. Over the longer duration, we are still bullish on oil and oil-weighted companies, like the oil sands (SU, CVE, MEG, STP and ATH), though we see it increasingly difficult for their shares to move higher in the short-term.

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