电动汽车平价难实现，消费者不买账

大众集团正在进军电动汽车市场，不过它采取了截然不同的两个路线。

今年9月，大众旗下的保时捷终于推出了大家盼望已久的Taycan轿车，它也是大众集团在高端电动汽车市场的试水之作。Taycan的命名依然有着浓浓的保时捷的味道（Taycan这个单词来自于土耳其语，意思是“一匹年轻骏马的灵魂”），它有超强的快充能力，续航可达200英里以上，同时搭载了大量高新技术和控制元件，其起价超过了15万美元。与此同时，在德国的法兰克福车展上，大众集团又推出了一款名为ID.3的小型掀背车，它的续航里程为341英里，外观看起来跟一台普通的大众高尔夫大同小异，只是使用了颇显洋气的双色配色，以彰显它的异国情调和未来感。可惜的是，该配置的ID.3可能并不会登陆美国市场。

ID.3的卖点，就在于它是一款非常实惠的买菜车。它的售价还算比较亲民（起售价约为3.3万美元），而且配了一块足够的大的电池，基本能够缓解车主的“里程焦虑症”。虽然高端电动汽车市场已经是一块稳稳当当的大蛋糕了——这点我们从特斯拉的崛起，以及保时捷Taycan的火爆预订就能看出来（目前已经有3万多人交了订金）。但是对于我们这些普通人呢？路面上的这些平价汽油车啥时候才能换成电动汽车？我们的那些跨界SUV、那些作为“油老虎”的皮卡，以及我们孩子的第一辆车，什么时候才能变成电动的？

The Volkswagen Group is getting charged up, and doing so in two vastly different ways.

In September, the car conglomerate’s prized Porsche showed off the long-awaited Taycan, its entry into the luxury electric vehicle (EV) space. Taycan has a properly Porsche name (it translates from Turkish origin as “the soul of a spirited young horse”), ultra-fast charging capability, 200-plus miles of range, and a slew of fancy tech features and controls in the cabin. It also starts at a price north of $150,000. Meanwhile, at Germany’s own Frankfurt Auto Show, Volkswagen debuted the ID.3, a little hatchback promising 341 miles of range. The car, which sadly won’t be coming to America in this configuration, looks a bit like a typical Volkswagen Golf, albeit with a jazzy teal two-tone paint job to mark it as exotic and futuristic.

The big deal about the ID.3 is its very ordinariness—and its attempt at an ordinary price tag (starting at about $33,000 USD) combined with a big enough battery to ease range anxiety. We know the luxury EV market is here to stay, as the rise of Tesla and the long line of Porsche Taycan preorders (30,000 deposits so far) have proven it. But how far are we from having a fleet of perfectly plain EVs populating our roads—our standard soccer-dad crossovers, our prized pickups, and our kids’ first car? Where are the mundane, workaday EVs?

闪亮登场

将时间倒回10年前，也就是电动汽车刚刚兴起的时候，你会发现，当时仓促上阵的电动汽车在外观和功能上还很不成熟。比如2010年的推出的第一代日产Leaf，看起来就像一颗圆滚滚的土豆——这是因为它的外型基本照抄了日产的入门级家轿骐达。这种设计显然是有意为之，目的是为了分流丰田普锐斯的部分潜在买主。10年前的普锐斯大概是最火爆的新能源车型了。

特斯拉的出现改变了这一切。特斯拉让电动汽车变成了“高端大气上档次”的玩意儿。2012年，特斯拉的Model S轿跑一经推出，立即让零排放轿车的理念深入人心。特斯拉的横空出世起了一石二鸟的作用。它不仅成功地将电动汽车包装成了一种高端产品，而不只是环保玩家自嗨的小众车型，同时也掩盖了在汽车里安装锂电池组的高昂成本。

随着特斯拉的成功，在电动汽车市场的高低两端，各大厂商仍在持续发力。捷豹公司推出了全电动轿跑i-Pace，奥迪和保时捷也跟风推出了e-Tron和Taycan等高端车型，试图从特斯拉的Model S手中分一杯羹。与此同时，低端市场的竞争也愈发激烈。虽然雪佛兰Bolt和宝马i3销量平平，但这并未阻止各大厂商纷纷进军平价电动汽车市场的步伐。

目前，美国汽车市场即将进入汽车电动化的第三阶段：全面电动化。全球多数汽车厂商都相继宣布，要在本世纪20年代实现汽车产品的电动化，通过推出各种混合动力或全电动车型，满足日益苛刻的环保要求。目前，各家电动皮卡已经纷纷入市，其中不仅有特斯拉和Rivian等初创公司的产品，也有很多来自于老牌汽车企业的产品。与此同时，各大车企也在纷纷研发大大小小的跨界车型、面包车和家用轿车。过不了多久，所有主流车型都会推出混动或纯电版。要不了几年，我们就能看见纯电版的福特野马跑车和F-150皮卡了。

不过，为什么很多人觉得自己对电动汽车的需求并不迫切？我们可以从销售数据中找一下答案。

“平价”电动汽车并不平价

加州是美国最大的汽车销售市场，也是美国最大的电动汽车销售市场。2019年上半年，加州的电动汽车销量较上年同期增长了63%，达到51750辆。不过这种增长主要是备受期待的特斯拉Model 3贡献的。今年上半年，特斯拉Model 3的销量达到了33000辆，相比之下，雪佛兰Bolt和日产Leaf的销量分别只有4482和2034辆。换句话说，虽说大家都觉得电动汽车的大趋势不可避免，可真到用银子投票的时候，多数人并不钟情于传统厂商推出的这些朴实无华的车型。

更流畅的设计、更坚实的充电设施和更好的技术性能，无疑助推了特斯拉的强劲销量。对Model 3的一路唱衰也并没有影响它的销路。跟往常一样，最大的影响因素还是价格。

虽然埃隆·马斯克曾经信誓旦旦地宣称，Model 3的售价大约在3.5万美元左右，是一台针对平民百姓的“买菜车”。不过一旦算上税费，它的落地价还是飙过了4万美元。（与此同时，特斯拉的联邦税收抵免已经下降到1875美元，而且很快就会完全取消。）当然，这个问题对于特斯拉的竞争对手也是存在的。雪佛兰Bolt的售价在3.6万美元以上。日产的第二代Leaf虽然比第一代有了明显的改进，续航里程也达到了220英里，但它的售价也涨到了3万多美元。作为两款热门小型跨界车的纯电版，起亚Niro和现代Kona也面临着同样的问题，

现代就是一个很好的例子。Kona的汽油版是一款很受欢迎的小车，它的汽油版和纯电版一同获得了2019年度北美年度风云车大奖。Kona电动车的续航里程达到258英里，甚至超过了240英里的特斯拉Model 3。《人车志》杂志也因此称Kona是市面上最好的纯电车之一。在Kona纯电版发布时，我个人曾以为，它标志着备受美国人喜爱的跨界车终于迎来了电动化时代。不过Kona虽然在一些海外市场获得了成功，但它只在美国沿海的少数几个州有售。截止到2019年7月，它在美国的销量有1751辆。

[注：为了方便横向比较，我省略了大众高尔夫电动版和菲亚特500电动版等车型，因为这两款车的续航里程非常有限，因而实用性堪忧。出于同样原因，本文将不深入探讨插电式混动汽车——也就是充电后只能在纯电状态跑个几十公里，就要让汽油发动机介入的汽车。今年上半年，插电式混动车型在美国卖得并不好，很大程度上是由于通用汽车停产了该领域的标杆车型——雪佛兰Volt。]

Kona电动版的最大敌人，或许就是Kona的汽油版。后者的经销商建议零售价只有2.01万美元，才刚过纯电版的一半。即使买主可以拿到一笔丰厚的联邦税收抵免，再加上购电时各州或各市给予的退税，也无法弥补这么大的差额。与此同时，美国的汽油价格近来一直保持疲软，司机们也就更加没有购买电动汽车的动力了。

大众集团公布的ID.3的售价约在3.3万美元左右，这是一个正确的方向，但大众和其他传统厂商一样，也面临着一个同样的问题——除非电池的价格下降了，使得纯电版汽车真的在价格上与汽油版有一拼，否则精打细算的美国消费者还是不会选择电动汽车的。（财富中文网）

译者：朴成奎

A Flashy Start

Rewind a decade, back to the dawn of our current electric car resurgence, and you’ll see the hasty evolution in how EVs are supposed to look and what they’re allowed to be. The first Nissan Leaf, released in 2010, resembled a bulbous rolling potato. Its signature look stemmed in part from the fact that Nissan based the car on the entry-level Versa. Part of the science-project aesthetic was clearly intentional, though, meant to appeal to the same kind of early adopters who swarmed to the pod-like Toyota Prius during the previous decade, when it was the driving darling of the green set.

That paradigm changed with Tesla. Elon Musk and company made electric driving sexy and attractive, stamping the brand’s vision of a zero-emissions luxury car onto our collective consciousness with the 2012 rollout of the Model S. Tesla pulled a double trick here. Reinventing the electric car as a premium product positioned it for success beyond just eco-focused buyers and helped to mask the steep cost of putting a big lithium-ion battery in a car.

Both of those market trends continue. Jaguar built the all-electric i-Pace, which, along with the likes of the Audi e-Tron and the Taycan, competes with the Tesla Model S in the high-end electric market. And the more affordable future-pods roll on, with the Chevy Bolt and BMW i3 finding modest sales in electric-friendly markets.

Now, though, the U.S. auto market stands at the start of a third phase of electrified driving: EV everything. Most of the world’s major auto companies have pledged to electrify their lineups during the 2020s, selling a wide variety of hybrids and totally electric vehicles to meet increasingly stringent fuel economy targets. Electric pickup trucks are coming, not only from flashy startups like Tesla and Rivian but also from established automakers. So are big crossovers, small crossovers, vans and cars. It won’t be long before every major car model offers a hybrid or all-electric version; EV Ford Mustangs and F-150 full-size trucks are a few years away.

So why does it feel like adoption of everyday EVs isn’t exactly imminent? Take a quick look at sales numbers.

An Affordable EV Is Not Necessarily An Affordable Vehicle

In California, the nation’s largest auto market and biggest EV market by far, electric vehicle sales rose by more than 63 percent to 51,750 EV sales in the first half of 2019. However, the strength of the much-anticipated Tesla Model 3 drove that rise. Tesla sold 33,000 Model 3s against just 4,482 Chevy Bolts and 2,034 for the Nissan Leaf. In other words: the less-flashy electric offerings from traditional automakers aren’t drumming up the sort of EVmania we’ve been lead to believe is inevitable.

A sleeker design, more robust charging infrastructure, and better tech features certainly aided Tesla’s strong sales. The steady drumbeat of Model 3 hype didn’t hurt, either. As usual, though, the prime culprit comes down to price.

While Elon Musk ballyhooed the Model 3 as Tesla’s $35,000 everyman EV, it’s not exactly priced for the masses. Add on any options plus the new car fees and taxes, and the cost of even the base model can slip well over $40,000. (Meanwhile, Tesla’s federal tax credit is now down to $1,875, soon to disappear entirely.) And the competition isn’t doing much better. The Chevy Bolt starts north of $36,000. Nissan’s second-generation Leaf is a marked improvement over the original, but equipped with a 220-mile battery it also reaches the high $30,000s. The same is true of the Kia Niro and Hyundai Kona, fully electrified versions of popular small crossovers.

The Hyundai is a telling case study. The Kona EV is derived from the brand’s popular gasoline-powered car, and together the two versions won the 2019 North American Utility of the Year award. Publications like Car and Driver lauded the Kona EV as one of the best fully electric options on the market, with its 258-mile range outpacing the 240 miles of the Tesla Model 3. Upon the EV’s release, I personally heralded it as a sign of things to come, when electric powertrains finally will enter the anonymous crossovers that Americans just can’t stop buying. But Hyundai, despite some success in friendlier overseas markets, is selling the Kona EV in just a select few coastal states and had moved a paltry 1751 units in the U.S. through July 2019.

[Note: For the sake of apples-to-apples comparison, I’m omitting EVs like the Volkswagen e-Golf and Fiat e500, whose limited range make them impractical and primary autos. For the same reason, this article doesn’t dive into plug-in hybrid vehicles—those that allow drivers to plug into a charger and travel a few dozen miles on electric power before a backup gas engine kicks on. PHEVs cratered in the first half of 2019, largely because GM discontinued the field’s standard-bearer, the Chevrolet Volt.]

The Kona EV’s killer might just be the Kona. Hyundai’s gasoline version starts with an MSRP of $20,100, barely more than half the cost of its electric cousin. Even a buyer who can snag a fat federal tax credit plus a state or local rebate for buying electric can’t make up that kind of gap. Meanwhile, with gas prices more or less stagnant across America, drivers have one less incentive to buy a ride that doesn’t rely on the pump.

Volkswagen’s announced price for the ID.3 comes in at an estimated $33,000. That’s a step in the right direction, but VW stares down the same problem hanging over all the established car companies: Until batteries come down in price, at least enough that electric offerings become truly competitive with their internal combustion counterparts, budget-conscious Americans aren’t shifting into the EV lane.