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弹劾总统对美国股市有怎样的影响

Erik Sherman 2019年10月13日

特朗普上任后引发争议的时候非常之多,而这或许是股市的“稳定器”。

在美国众议院议长南希·佩洛西宣布正式启动对特朗普的弹劾调查后,股市似乎未受影响。低开之后,标普500、道琼斯30和罗素2000指数均已恢复上升态势。

但下个季度乃至明年的情况会怎样呢?如果历史可以借鉴,那么从投资和财富管理机构LPL Financial向《财富》杂志提供的数据中就能看出,情况有可能真的变好,也有可能变得糟糕。

尼克松和克林顿的影响不同

理查德·尼克松在弹劾前以辞职换取不被调查起诉。当时标普500指数的市值下跌了33%。而众议院弹劾比尔·克林顿,但未获参议院通过后,该指数上涨了39%以上。

LPL Financial的高级市场策略分析师里安·德特里克在报告中指出,二者的差别在于当时的经济情况,“20世纪70年代中期美国经济正在走向严重衰退,90年代末美国经济则很强劲。”

如今的情况更为复杂,经济仍在增长,但已经出现了各种各样令人担心的迹象。向《财富》杂志提供报告的诸多金融专业人士基本上都认为长期情况有望保持稳定。

短期影响

一开始可能会有些波动。AXA Investment Managers的宏观经济研究主管大卫·佩吉说:“众议院议长洛佩西宣布启动弹劾调查对金融市场和经济的初始影响可能都是不利的。”

Wedbush Securities的董事总经理史蒂夫·马索卡认为:“弹劾要产生影响,就得有现实的故事让投资者相信真的会出现权力更迭。我并不是赞成某种政治观点,只是进行投资分析——股市喜欢唐纳德·特朗普和他的政策。”如果掌权者不变,局势就很可能一如既往,至少在2020年11月之前将是这样。

目前弹劾或许几乎不会引起投资者注意,特别是在对华贸易问题悬而未决的情况下。FX Street的一名货币分析师亚哈·艾拉姆说:“长期而言,市场[将]倾向于忽略漫长的弹劾程序,此事在政治上也许备受关注,但对经济、政策和股市的表现几乎没有什么影响。”艾拉姆还认为特朗普下台或许对市场有帮助:“彭斯总统可能会让贸易政策变得更为明确,同时减少不稳定的行为。”

不过,弹劾特朗普的可能性很小。就像Federated Investors的首席股票策略分析师菲尔·奥兰多指出的那样,此事需获得参议院三分之二的赞成票,但这看来不大可能,因为共和党在参议院占53个席位,民主党占45个,还有两个是独立席位。这并不是说情况马上就会变得顺利起来。奥兰多写道:“中美贸易争端的不确定性以及美联储政策最为重要,但世界上其他一系列因素会在万圣节时诡异地汇聚在一起,这包括英国脱欧的最终期限、日本政府就增值税做出决定、德拉吉[在欧洲央行]向拉加德交接权力以及德国的第三季度GDP初步数字,它将表明德国经济是否已经陷入技术性衰退。”

不稳定性成了“盾牌”

特朗普上任后引发争议的时候非常之多,而这或许是最奇怪的“稳定器”。佩吉指出:“这并不是什么新的调查。这两年美国国会有好几个委员会都在或者曾经对总统进行调查。”

Raymond James Equity Research发布的报告认为,如果没有进展,本次弹劾调查就可能有利于市场,因为“它有可能降低风险”。而且就像国会新闻机构Roll Call报道的那样,白宫已经做出威胁,表示不会在弹劾调查中配合国会的任何行动。

此外,这还可能让政客们受益。中田纳西州立大学的经济和金融系副教授丹尼尔·史密斯说:“政治不确定性越大,我就会越发认为高盛等大公司将进一步对冲风险,途径就是同时为两个党派的政客提供更多的捐款。”(财富中文网)

译者:Charlie

审校:夏林

With House Speaker Nancy Pelosi’s announcement of a formal Trump impeachment inquiry, stock markets don’t seem phased. After an opening drop, the S&P 500, Dow 30, Nasdaq, and Russell 2000 are all in positive territory.

But what about tomorrow, next week, month, and on into the coming year? If history is a tutor, things could go really well—or terribly, according to data compiled and sent to Fortune by LPL Financial.

Nixon and Clinton’s mixed results

After Richard Nixon’s near impeachment, only put off by his resignation, the S&P 500 saw a 33% drop in value. But the index shot up more than 39% after the House impeached Bill Clinton and the Senate failed to remove him.

The difference, according to a note from LPL Financial senior market strategist Ryan Detrick, is where the economy already was: “The economy was headed into a vicious recession in the mid-’70s, while the economy was humming along in the late 1990s.”

Things are more mixed these days, with growth still happening but various worrying signs visible. A number of financial professionals who sent notes to Fortune largely thought things would be stable in the long run.

Short-term impact

At first there may be some disturbance. “The primary initial impact of House Speaker Pelosi’s announcement is likely to be negative for both financial markets and the economy alike,” says David Page, head of macroeconomic research at AXA Investment Managers.

“For impeachment to matter, there would have to be a realistic story that would lead investors to believe that there would be an actual change in power,” says Steve Massocca, managing director at Wedbush Securities. “I am not espousing a political viewpoint but rather an investment analysis. The stock market likes Donald Trump and his agenda.” Absent a change in power, things will probably move along as they have been, at least until November 2020.

It may be that, especially with issues of trade with China still looming large, there is currently little of interest for investors in the process. “In the long run, markets [will] tend to shrug off the lengthy impeachment processes, which may be politically fascinating, but have little impact on the economy, policy, and stock market performance,” says Yohay Elam, a currency analyst at FX Street, who also thinks that a removal from office might actually help markets. “[A] President Pence may provide more certainty around trade policy and less erratic behavior.”

Removal, however, is a remote possibility, as Phil Orlando, chief equity strategist at Federated Investors, notes, given that the Senate would need a two-thirds majority to take that action, which seems unlikely with 53 Republicans, 45 Democrats, and 2 Independents. That doesn’t mean smooth sailing immediately ahead. “Uncertainty around U.S.-China trade tensions and Federal Reserve policy top the list, but a number of other factors around the world will come together spookily enough right at Halloween: the Brexit deadline; the Japanese VAT tax decision; the Draghi transition to Lagarde at the [European Central Bank]; and Germany’s Q3 GDP flash report indicating whether their economy has slipped into a technical recession,” Orlando writes.

Instability becomes a shield

What may be the oddest stabilizing factor is that so much of Trump’s time in the White House has been controversial. “This does not mark a new sort of enquiry and there are, and have been, several Committees investigating the President over recent years,” Page says.

And any lack of progress—as the White House has threatened to refuse to cooperate in any legislative process during an impeachment inquiry, as Roll Call reported—could be a plus for markets as it “could serve to mitigate risk,” according to a published note from Raymond James Equity Research.

Plus, it could be a boon for politicians. “The more political uncertainty there is, the more I would expect major corporations, such as Goldman Sachs, to further hedge their bets by donating to politicians on both sides of the aisle,” says Daniel Smith, associate professor in the Department of Economics and Finance at Middle Tennessee State University.

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