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苹果的新流媒体服务对股价影响几何?各方看法不一

Anne Sraders 2019年09月17日

苹果备受关注的廉价流媒体服务和新科技是否足以抵消额外关税的影响?

今天,苹果是华尔街当仁不让的香饽饽。

这家科技巨头的股价在9月11日盘中上涨了近3%,只要你昨天在网上,不管是以什么样的方式或形式,可能都已经知道了个中原因。苹果(股票代码:AAPL)发布了一系列新产品,包括新款iPhone,以及可能是人们最为关注的新流媒体服务Apple TV+的价格。

苹果向服务转移的这一显著调整(包括视频游戏服务Apple Arcade以及上述Apple TV+)展示了该公司是一位多面能手。事实上,其视频订阅服务令人惊讶的低价(4.99美元,低于华尔街预测的7.99-9.99美元以及其他主流视频流服务的价格)让很多分析师对其充满信心。

然而,并非所有人都持乐观态度。过去的一年中,苹果在中国的疲软业绩拖累了整体业绩,贸易战让这位科技巨人遭受了重创,征收额外关税的威胁可能会进一步降低中国的销量。再者,今年早些时候苹果约翰·艾维斯的离职也让很多人对于公司未来的发展方向感到不安。

苹果备受关注的廉价流媒体服务和新科技是否足以抵消额外关税的影响?以下是有关看多与看空的对比分析:

看多派

D.A. Davidson分析师汤姆·福特负责苹果和其他22家公司。对于苹果,他当前给出了“买入”评级,目标价格270美元/股。

总的来说,发布会给了我们更大的信心,因为从长期来看,苹果有能力通过各种举措,降低自身对iPhone销售的依赖性。这些举措包括:[1]涵盖支付在内的金融服务;[2]健康;以及[3]专属视频内容(Apple TV+)。

我们对自己做出的买入评级充满信心,原因在于,人们的期许已经降至最低……[而且]这一点与昨天发布的新iPhone有关,可谓是历史新低。不妨想一下,经历了这么多年的发布会,投资者都已经司空见惯了……而且发布会结束后,我们更感兴趣的是 Apple TV+的定价,而不是iPhone的新参数。

明年,如果苹果能够推出5G手机,那么智能手机业务便可以继续保持其单位增长,而且救星就要来了。苹果表示,公司将开展一个多年期计划,将苹果对智能手机销售的依赖性降到最低。苹果的这一辞令引发了投资者异常热烈的反响。上一财年,智能手机销售额占营收的6%(这个比例是否有问题?)。

好消息在于,智能手机市场的饱和正在推动苹果寻找新机遇,而且,苹果也开始着手应对这一挑战。

我们还认为,[iPhone] 11的销量可能会超出预期,而且我们开玩笑说,苹果不妨使用这样的口号:“赶快在政府加税,iPhone 12涨价之前购买新iPhone吧。”

中国风险依然是苹果最大的隐患,因为公司的供应链有很大一部分在中国,而且苹果大约20%的销售业绩也源自中国。在我们看来,鉴于苹果在这两个国家的影响力,他们有能力说服美国和中国政府。不管你怎么看待这件事情,美国政府倒是给了苹果一个大礼,让公司可以在新关税实施之前销售iPhone 11。我认为,大不了下一代5G智能手机的价格会加上一定的关税。同时,适用苹果的准则至少也同样适用其他厂商,他们可能会有机会完全摆脱这些关税。

[就Apple TV+]而言,还记得自己是否说过这样的话吗:“在所有产品中,苹果都是最便宜的”。估计你是想不起来,因为到目前为止,没有人会得出这个结论。但[Apple TV+]是最便宜的,我是这么认为的,而且我认为这是向Netflix发起的挑战,很了不起。

我们看到,未来12个月存在着三大潜在股价刺激因素:[1]iPhone销售的反弹(预测约占2019财年第四季度营收的52% ,而2018财年同期营收占比为60%,手机依然是苹果最重要的产品)导致运营业绩超过预期;[2]新动议导致业绩好于预期,包括苹果手表和Apple TV+,以及其他服务;[3]美国税法改革之后加速回购的举措以及派息额度的增加。

看空派

Edward D. Jones 分析师罗根·普克负责苹果和其他18家公司,目前对苹果给出了“持有”评级。

我认为就Apple TV+而言,这是个非常利好的消息,尤其是其上线日期,当然还有定价。不利因素在于,如果顾客现在购买,可以获得一年的免费试用。因此该服务第一年的财务影响非常有限。此外,尽管定价十分给力,但该定价会使其财务影响力受到进一步的限制。从这一点来看,该服务更多的是为了“打造生态系统”,而不是“我们如何才能实现财务增长目标。”

尤其谈到新发布的iPhone,阻力会比以往更大,原因很简单,尽管其价格较上一款iPhone略有下降,但这款iPhone没有5G功能,然而其中国的竞争对手都已经配备了这一技术,何况这些手机的功能非常丰富,而且价格要便宜的多。因此,我认为在明年其5G手机出来之前,苹果在这一轮会失去一些市场份额。

在近期内,[贸易战]也是阻力之一。从长期来看,我们认为贸易战最终会得到解决,因此从长远来看贸易战不会造成太大的影响。

由于期望都放在了明年的iPhone上,因此今年的iPhone难以引发人们的兴趣。其他产品的更新可能会有所帮助,但Apple Arcade和Apple TV+的财务影响十分有限,因此我认为在5G手机出来之前,iPhone业务的增速会低于以往。

不管成功与否,我都会继续关注 Apple Arcade,当然还有Apple TV+。我可以确定的是,苹果在公布用户数量方面不会有所遮掩。很显然,这是苹果希望投资者关注的领域。尽管我们完全有理由说Apple TV+的价格非常平易近人,而且消费者也会订阅,但与此同时,正是基于这个原因,消费者不大可能取消其他视频流服务的订阅。由于成本只增加了5美元,因此就算我想订阅Apple TV+,我也犯不着为此为难,并取消Netflix。(财富中文网)

译者:冯丰

审校:夏林

Apple has certainly been the apple of Wall Street's eye today.

The tech giant's stock popped almost 3% by intraday trading Wednesday, and if you were on the internet in any way, shape, or form yesterday, you probably know why—Apple (ticker: AAPL) showcased a variety of new products including new iPhones and, perhaps most talked about, the price of their new streaming service Apple TV+. (You can get a full recap here).

The notable shift to services (including Apple Arcade and the aforementioned Apple TV+) shows the company isn't just a one-trick pony. In fact, the astonishingly low price of their TV service (at $4.99, which is below Street estimates of $7.99-$9.99 and the major streaming services) is making many analysts bullish.

But not everyone sees upside. Apple's struggles in China over the past year have weighed on the company, the trade war is hitting the tech giant hard, and the threat of additional tariffs could further weaken China sales for the tech behemoth. Plus, the departure of Apple's Jony Ives earlier this year had many on edge about the direction of the company moving forward.

Is Apple's eye-catching cheap streaming service and new tech enough to stave off the weight of more tariffs? Here's the Bull vs. Bear case.

Bull

Analyst Tom Forte at D.A. Davidson covers Apple and 22 other companies, and currently has a 'buy' rating on the company with a price target of $270 per share.

Overall, we left the event more confident in the company's long-term ability to reduce its dependence on iPhone sales, including via its efforts in: [one], financial services/including payments, [two], healthcare, and [three], proprietary video content (Apple TV+).

We feel very good about our buy rating, and the reason is because expectations have never been lower, ... [and] as it pertains to the iPhone yesterday, were historically low. You think about all the years they’ve had that event, ... and coming out of the event, we were more interested in the pricing of Apple TV+ than the new specs on the iPhone.

Next year, if they’re able to have a 5G device, that could resume unit growth for smartphones—help is on the way. And investors are surprisingly warmly embracing the narrative at Apple, which is the company is engaged in a multi-year process to minimize its dependence on smartphone sales, which were 6% of revenue in the last fiscal year.

The good news when it comes to the saturation of the smartphone market is it's pushing Apple to pursue new opportunities, and ... Apple is taking on the challenge.

We also think that sales for the [iPhone] 11 may exceed expectations, and we jokingly say that Apple’s tagline should be, ‘buy the [iPhone] 11 before the government raises the price of the 12’ because of tariffs.

The China risk is still the most significant risk for the company when you think about both their supply chain and the fact that, give or take, 20% of their sales are to Chinese consumers. The company ... in our opinion, [has] the ability to lobby both the U.S. and the Chinese government because of their influence in both countries. Phrase it however you want, but the U.S. gave them a gift which was the ability to sell the iPhone 11 prior to the implementation of the tariffs. I think that, at the maximum, the next [generation] 5G device will have some element of tariff priced into it, and at a minimum, the same rules are applied to Apple as for everyone else, and they may find the ability to completely wiggle out of these tariffs.

[In terms of Apple TV+], when was the last time you ever said, ‘Apple was the least expensive option’ in anything? Never. That’s a statement that, up until now, we were never able to say. [Apple TV+] is the least expensive. That is, to me, why I see this as a shot across the bow at Netflix ... and [is] remarkable.

We see three potential catalysts for shares over the next 12-month period: stronger-than-expected operating results from [one], a rebound in iPhone sales (forecasted at roughly 52% of 4QFY19 sales versus 60% of FY18 revenues, it remains Apple’s most significant product); [two], better-than-expected results from its newer initiatives, including the Apple Watch and Apple TV+ as well as its other service efforts; and [three], an accelerated repurchase effort and increase in dividends following the changes to U.S tax code.

Bear

Analyst Logan Purk at Edward D. Jones covers Apple and 18 other companies, and currently has a 'hold' rating on the company.

I think the headlines are really positive in terms of Apple TV+, particularly with the launch date, and then of course pricing. The headwind is if customers make purchases now, they get it free for a year. The financial impact is pretty limited at least for the first year. Further, while the pricing is strong, once again, the financial impact is now further limited. This becomes more of a, ‘we’re building out the ecosystem’ and less of a ‘how we can move the needle financially moving forward.’

Especially this cycle of the iPhone, the headwinds are going to be bigger than usual just because the product they have now, while the price is a little cheaper relative to past cycles of the iPhone, lacks the 5G capabilities that its competitors already have [in China]. Not to mention that those phones are very feature-rich and they’re also substantially cheaper, so I think Apple stands to lose some share over this next cycle until their 5G phone hopefully comes out next year.

In the near term, [the trade war] is a bit of a headwind. Longer term, our view is that the trade situation is ultimately resolved, so longer term we don’t see it as too big of an impact.

Looking forward over this next cycle of the iPhone, ... this cycle will be muted. The refresh of the other products helped some, but the financial impact from Apple Arcade and Apple TV+ is limited, so I think going forward the business is going to be lower growth than usual until we get this 5G refresh.

I’d keep an eye on the success or lack thereof of the uptake in Apple Arcade and of course Apple TV+, and I’m sure they will not be shy in sharing subscriber numbers. That’s clearly where they want investor focus to be. While it's easy to say Apple TV+ is very affordable, customers will sign up—at the same time, it’s very affordable, customers are less likely to drop other subscription services. Because if it’s an incremental $5, I don’t need to cancel Netflix to really make this decision if I want it.

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