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美国经济是否健康,请密切关注这9大指标

美国经济衰退的警告标志已经显现了。

今年7月下旬,美联储(Federal Reserve)时隔11年终于再次降息,这究竟是对美国经济关切担忧的回应,还是对政治压力的屈服?众说纷纭。不过经济衰退的警告标志已经显现,多数经济学家如今认为下次降息将会发生在2020年美国大选之前。我们正在密切关注以下九大指标,借此判断经济的健康状况。

失业率

美国失业率处于历史低点,而且仍然有下行趋势。

Opinions are split on whether the Federal Reserve responded to genuine concerns for the U.S. economy in cutting interest rates for the first time in 11 years in late July, or simply bowed to political pressure. But the warning signs of recession are showing themselves—and a majority of economists now believe the next cuts will come before the 2020 elections. We’re keeping an eye on these nine key metrics to judge the health of the economy.

Unemployment Rate

The U.S. unemployment rate is at historically low levels and is still trending downward.

消费者信心

消费者保持着乐观态度,而且还在越来越乐观。

Consumer Confidence

Consumers are bullish, and they’re getting more so.

离职率

更多美国人在主动离职,这是对经济前景抱有信心的标志。

Quits Rate

More Americans are leaving their jobs voluntarily, a mark of economic confidence.

汽车销量

汽车销量在美国是一个核心经济指标,它在2017年达到顶峰,并开始逐渐下滑。

Vehicles Sold

U.S. auto sales, a core economic indicator, peaked in 2017 and are trending down.

股票估值

罗伯特·席勒的周期调整市盈率指数表明未来的回报率较低。

Stock-Price Valuation

Robert Shiller’s cyclically adjusted P/E ratio index indicates low future returns.

原油价格

低迷的原油价格表明工业需求疲软,这一信号令人担忧。

Oil Prices

Anemic oil prices reflect weak industrial demand—a concerning sign.

新建筑许可

新的房屋建设停滞不前,从未恢复到金融危机之前的水平。

New Building Permits

New housing construction is stalling—and never reached pre-crisis levels.

ISM制造业指数

该指数已经逼近50。在这一基准线以下容易出现衰退。

ISM Manufacturing Index

The index is approaching 50. Recessions tend to happen below that level.

收益曲线

长期债券的利率已经低于短期债券,这是衰退的另一个迹象。(财富中文网)

The Yield Curve

Long-term bond rates are below short-term rates, another recession indicator.

来源:美国人口统计局;美国劳工统计局;世界大型企业联合会;彭博社;罗伯特·席勒;美国供应管理协会

本文另一版本登载于《财富》杂志2019年9月刊,标题为《经济黄色警报》。

译者:严匡正

Sources: Census Bureau; Bureau of Labor Statistics; The Conference Board; Bloomberg; Robert Shiller; Institute for Supply Management

A version of this article appears in the September 2019 issue of Fortune with the headline “Code Yellow for the Economy.”

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