这家“时尚探索网站”自称可以预测奢侈品趋势

上到高级时装，下到街头风，时尚品牌一直严重依赖社交媒体的影响力推销服装。但有一家顶级时尚电子商务平台最近发现，最重要的推动力还是消费者。

自称“时尚探索网站”的莫达·奥普朗迪最近发布了第一份《时装周报告》，着重分析消费者购物习惯，也预测了2019年秋冬时尚趋势。从报告中一些数据点可看出，一周当中消费者最喜欢网购奢侈品的时间，以及时装月期间最受欢迎的时装秀（包括纽约、伦敦、米兰和巴黎的时装走秀），还根据地理位置细分，确定哪些城市里热爱设计师品牌的消费者最多。

该电商网站大部分发现基于所谓的“trunkshow数据”。TrunkShows是供应商直接向百货商店采购或客户展示商品的活动。今年早些时候举办的2019年时装月季度里，莫达·奥普朗迪举办了超过120场大型展会。因为莫达·奥普朗迪有下一季的库存信息，认为客户会用手中的美元“投票”，决定接下来六个月喜欢的款式。因此，莫达·奥普朗迪本质上认为，在决定未来几个季度网上商店未来季节应投资哪种风格方面，其客户与百货商店买手（负责帮各自商店采购商品员工）一样重要。

“这种模式可向客户提供更多他们想要的东西，也能提升莫达库存的可持续性，” 莫达·奥普朗迪首席执行官加内什·斯里瓦茨在一份声明中解释道。“我们发现，身处时尚前沿的客户对最终趋势的预测能力很强。”

莫达·奥普朗迪还有一些可能对各种类型和价位的零售商都有帮助的调查结果，其发现客户最常集中访问网站的时间是周日上午和周一下午，也就是一周的开始。数据根据每天的平均时段计算得出。

Fashion brands, from haute couture to street style, have been relying heavily on social media influencers to peddle their clothes. But the true power still relies with the customer, based on new findings from one of the top fashion e-commerce platforms.

Self-described as a “fashion discovery site,” Moda Operandi recently published its first ever “Runway Report,” a new take on analyzing consumer shopping habits with forecasts for fashion trends in fall and winter 2019. Among some of the data points included in the report are the most popular times and days of the week when consumers shopped online for luxury fashion, the most liked runway shows during fashion month showings (covering catwalks in New York, London, Milan, and Paris), and a breakdown on geographical levels as to which cities have the most consumers shilling out for designer labels.

Much of the e-commerce site’s findings are based on what the brand calls “trunkshow data.” Trunkshows are events where vendors present merchandise directly to store personnel or customers. Moda Operandi hosted more than 120 trunkshows during the 2019 fashion month season earlier this year. Because Moda Operandi carries next season’s inventory, the company asserts its customers are “voting” with their dollars on what styles they’ll want to own in six months. Thus, Moda Operandi essentially considers their customers to be on par with department store buyers (employees responsible for purchasing goods and products sold in their respective stores) in dictating which styles the online store should invest in for future seasons.

“This model gives customers more of what they want, while allowing Moda to make increasingly sustainable inventory decisions,” explains Ganesh Srivats, CEO of Moda Operandi, in a statement. “We find that our fashion-forward customer has a high degree of predictive power for what will eventually become a trend.”

Among some of the findings that might be helpful to retailers of all types and price points, Moda Operandi found that its customers flocked to the site most frequently on Sunday mornings and Monday afternoons—quite a way to start off the week. These findings were based on average sessions per day.

在奢侈品消费最高的美国和国际城市名单里，有些是传统时尚都市，但也有一些后起之秀。

美国奢侈品消费前十

1.纽约州纽约市

2.加州洛杉矶

3.康涅狄格州格林威治

4.德克萨斯州达拉斯

5.加州旧金山

6.德克萨斯州休斯顿

7.伊利诺伊州芝加哥

8.华盛顿特区

9.乔治亚州亚特兰大

10.加州圣地亚哥

全球奢侈品消费前十

1.英国伦敦

2.中国香港

3.卡塔尔多哈

4.沙特阿拉伯利雅得

5.新加坡

6.法国巴黎

7.科威特科威特市

8.奥地利维尔登·阿姆沃思

9.加拿大多伦多

10.阿联酋阿布扎比

Among the U.S. and international cities where customers are spending the most on luxury fashion, there are some obvious fashion capitals, but also a few surprises.

Top 10 Spending U.S. Cities

1.New York, New York

2.Los Angeles, California

3.Greenwich, Connecticut

4.Dallas, Texas

5.San Francisco, California

6.Houston, Texas

7.Chicago, Illinois

8.Washington, D.C.

9.Atlanta, Georgia

10.San Diego, California

Top 10 Spending Global Cities

1.London, United Kingdom

2.Hong Kong

3.Doha, Qatar

4.Riyadh, Saudi Arabia

5.Singapore

6.Paris, France

7.Kuwait City, Kuwait

8.Veldem Am Worthsee, Austria

9.Toronto, Canada

10.Abu Dhabi, United Arab Emirates

但也许从莫达·奥普林迪的数据能得到的真正独家新闻是：今年秋天最热门的趋势是什么？大家都会穿什么？

根据2月的trunkshows预测，临近年底色调将更加中性，很多新品会选择偏中性、灰色、白色、粉色和绿色。此外可关注修长剪裁、传统面料（粗花呢、格子花呢和方格花呢等）和浪漫风格，比如宽大的袖子，过去几年里库存均出现增长，一些评论人士亲切地称之为“外婆袖”。

从网站搜索的关键词来看，消费者也在推动潮流，包括风衣（秋季男女都爱的典型服装），还有珍珠、头带、羽毛，很奇怪的是还有扎染。（也许别把这些同时穿戴上就没问题。）

But maybe the real scoop based on Moda Operandi’s data is: What will the hottest trends be this fall? What will everyone be wearing?

Based on the aforementioned trunkshows in February, prepare for a more neutral color palette by the end of the year, with many new things in neutral, grey, white, pink, and green. Also look for long and lean silhouettes, traditional fabrics (tweed, plaids, checkered, etc.), and romantic touches, such as voluminous sleeves, which have actually seen their stock rise over the last couple of years to the point where some commentators affectionately call them “grandma sleeves.”

Shoppers are also driving trends, based on some of the search terms on the rise on the site, including trench coats (a typical fall staple for men and women) but also pearls, headbands, feathers, and curiously enough, tie dye. (Maybe just don’t wear all of these things at the same time.)

另一方面来看，莫达·奥普朗迪也预测出今年秋天哪些会过时。根据搜索词的下降趋势，过时的时尚包括天鹅绒、亮片、豹纹、束衣和紧身衣。

这么看起来，比较安全的策略是走简约风。（财富中文网）

译者：冯丰

审校：夏林

On the flip side, Moda Operandi also has predictions for what will be out this fall, based on search terms on the decline. Among them: velvet, sequins, leopard, bustiers, and corsets.

With that mind, a safe bet is that less is always more.