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高盛称全球经济已触底反弹

Malcolm Scott, 彭博社 2019年03月04日

高盛称,欧洲经济增长疲软,但美中两国经济已经回温。

图片来源:Priscila Zambotto—Getty Images

高盛集团(Goldman Sachs Group Inc.)的首席经济师扬·哈祖斯表示,全球经济已经触底反弹。

虽然增长仍然疲软,但2月份高盛日前活动指标略高于向下修正的12月和1月数据。

哈祖斯和斯文·贾里·斯特恩在2月26日的一份报告中写道:“一些绿芽正在萌发,表明后续增长将从此开始。”尽管如此,高盛对其2019年全球国内生产总值将增长3.5%的预测仍持谨慎立场。

关于市场,高盛:

仍然对风险资产保持乐观,尽管随着市场“对经济衰退更乐观”,市场优势已经降低;预计债券收益率将上升;考虑到鸽派美联储以及全球经济增长的预期,继续看跌美元;未来2至3个月内适度看涨石油,但本年度剩余月份石油前景不容乐观。按照哈祖斯的说法,由于金融环境收紧导致的阻力已经减缓,美国经济回升的势头最为强劲。

高盛也看到了中国经济增长出现转机的初步迹象。这也符合彭博早期活动指标反映的信息:

仍有一些高管持谨慎态度。摩根大通公司(JPMorgan Chase&Co.)的首席执行官杰米·戴蒙在银行面对投资者的年度发布会中承认,经济中可能出现的阻力增多,才使其公司创下了创纪录的利润。

“我们为衰退做好了准备,”戴蒙说。“我们不是预测会出现衰退。我们只是说,我们非常清楚面临的风险。”

高盛认为,各大地区中,欧洲看起来最弱,“意大利经济衰退,德国接近衰退,大多数其他经济体仅维持趋势性增长。”该报告称。高盛将欧洲央行首次加息的预期从2019年末推迟至2020年中。

至于美联储,高盛表示,美联储在未来6至9个月有所举措的可能性下降,年底前加息需要经济增长和核心通胀双双反弹。高盛预计,3月会议上会宣布美联储将在今年晚些时候(可能在9月)结束缩表。(财富中文网)

译者:Agatha

The global economy may have already bottomed out, according to Goldman Sachs Group Inc. Chief Economist Jan Hatzius.

While growth remains soft, Goldman’s current activity indicator in February is slightly above the downwardly-revised December and January numbers.

“Some green shoots are emerging that suggest that sequential growth will pick up from here,” Hatzius and Sven Jari Stehn wrote in a note dated Feb. 26. Still, the risk to Goldman’s global GDP forecast of 3.5 percent for 2019 “is probably still on the downside.”

On markets, Goldman:

remains positive on risk assets, although upside is now probably lower as markets have become “more sanguine on recession” expects bond yields to rise maintains a bearish dollar view, given a dovish Fed and expectation for a pickup in global growth is modestly bullish on oil over the next 2-3 months, but sees a more bearish outlook for the remainder of the year’The case for a pickup from the current pace is strongest in the U.S. as the drag from a tightening of financial conditions eases, according to Hatzius.

Goldman also sees tentative signs of a turnaround in Chinese growth. That’s in line with Bloomberg’s snapshot of early indicators of activity:

Some executives remain cautious. Jamie Dimon, Chief Executive Officer of JPMorgan Chase & Co., used the bank’s annual presentation to investors to acknowledge a growing number of potential obstacles to the economy that carried his firm to record profits last year.

“We are prepared for a recession,” Dimon said. “We’re not predicting a recession. We’re simply pointing out that we are very conscious about the risks we bear.”

Goldman reckons Europe looks like the weakest major region, “with Italy in recession, Germany close to it, and most other economies growing at only about a trend pace,” according to the note. Goldman has pushed back its expectations for the first ECB hike from late-2019 to mid-2020.

As for the Fed, Goldman says the prospects for moves in the next 6 to 9 months have fallen and an increase toward the end of the year would require a rebound in both growth and core inflation. It expects an announcement at the March meeting that the Fed will end balance sheet runoff later this year, probably in September.

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