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机器取代人的时代到来:到2025年将承担人类半数工作

彭博社 2018年09月20日

有报告称,当前的所谓“第四次工业革命”可能在全球范围创造1.33亿个工作岗位,7500万劳动者可能失业。

世界经济论坛(WEF)新近报告预计,未来七年内人类的工作半数都将交给机器和自动化软件。不过报告还预计,人工智能、机器人和精密医疗技术创造的新岗位可能比威胁到的岗位多。

WEF上述报告于本周一公布,研究者是来自12个行业的高管和专家。报告的结论是:当前的所谓“第四次工业革命” 可能在全球范围创造1.33亿个工作岗位,7500万劳动者可能失业。

WEF新经济与社会中心的主管萨阿迪亚·扎赫迪表示,无论是道德上还是经济上,企业都有必要投资为员工提供培训和继续教育。“如果不积极调整,企业和员工都可能落伍。”她说。

科研机构、咨询公司和各国政府一直在努力判断新技术对就业的影响,此举是最新行动。包括WEF早前发布的报告在内,此前的一些研究都预计,自动化消灭的人类工作岗位将超过创造的岗位。

然而,新技术将取代人类岗位数量方面,各研究组织的预测结果相差甚远。英国央行2015年的研究得出的数字最惨,称到2035年美国和英国分别有多达8000万和1500万个人类岗位被新技术取代。去年12月麦肯锡的一份报告却相对乐观,称到2030年预计新技术导致人类岗位的数量可能跟新增岗位相当。

WEF的最新报告分析认为,自动化对不同行业的影响可能差别很大,矿业、消费类和信息技术企业的就业可能受创最严重,一些专业服务公司所受影响相对较小。

总部位于瑞士的WEF在报告中指出,新增的很多岗位可能没有过去的“铁饭碗” 牢靠,因为企业选择将越来越多的工作外包,要么找自由职业者。WEF警告道,新工作对劳动者技能的需求与现有技能截然不同。

WEF预计,要想把握数字技术创造的新机遇,大企业半数以上的员工都要接受大量培训。但一半企业仅打算为关键岗位的人员开展培训。对可能因新技术而失业的员工,仅有三分之一的企业计划提供培训。

WEF因每年在瑞士滑雪度假胜地达沃斯举办企业界和政界领袖峰会闻名。该组织表示,报告的依据是对企业高管、战略官、人力资源专家的调查问卷,受访对象来自20个国家的300家全球性企业。WEF称,调研涉及企业合计拥有超过1500万员工,经济体量占全球国内生产总值总和的70%。(财富中文网)

译者:Pessy

审校:夏林

 

Machines and automated software will be handling fully half of all workplace tasks within seven years, a new report from the World Economic Forum forecasts. But the group said technologies such as artificial intelligence, robotics, and precision medicine, could create more jobs than they threaten.

In a study of executives and specialists across 12 industries, published Monday, the WEF concluded that this so-called “Fourth Industrial Revolution” could create 133 million jobs globally, while 75 million workers may be displaced.

Saadia Zahidi, head of the WEF’s Center for the New Economy and Society, said companies had “a moral and economic imperative” to invest in retraining and continuing education for their employees. “Without proactive approaches, businesses and workers may lose out,” she said.

The report is the latest in a series of efforts by academics, consultancies and governments to assess the impact of new technologies on employment. Previous studies, including an earlier one by the WEF, have generally forecast automation will destroy more jobs than it creates.

The scale of projected displacement varies enormously between research groups, however. A Bank of England study in 2015 produced some of the bleakest figures, forecasting that as many as 80 million jobs in the U.S. and 15 million in the U.K. could be lost by 2035. A McKinsey report in December produced one of the rosier assessments, forecasting jobs lost and created by new technology might be about equal by 2030.

In its latest analysis, the WEF said the effects of automation may vary substantially across industries, and predicted job losses to be heaviest in mining, consumer, and information technology companies, and less within professional services firms.

Many new jobs may be less secure than in the past, as businesses are increasingly turning to contractors and freelancers, the Swiss foundation said. It warned there’s a significant gap between the skills workers currently have and those that may be required for future new roles.

It estimates more than half of employees at large companies would need significant retraining in order to take advantage of new opportunities created by digital technology. But it said half of all companies plan retraining only for “key roles,” and only one-third say they plan any retraining for at-risk workers.

Best known for throwing an annual summit of business and government leaders in the Swiss ski resort of Davos, the WEF said it based its forecast on a survey of senior executives, strategy officers and human resource specialists at 300 global companies, spanning 20 different countries. It said these companies represented more than 15 million employees and their economies represented 70% of global GDP.

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