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失业率降低,经济提速,为什么特朗普还要大搞贸易战?

David Meyer 2018年09月12日

贸易战中受到损失的,很可能不止是总统的贸易对手。

特朗普对价值2,000亿美元的中国商品进行新一轮征税的议案已经在上周四结束了公众意见征集期。这意味着25%的关税政策随时可能落地,尽管彭博社报道称美国的大型科技公司和零售商正在做着最后的努力,试图让总统回心转意。

思科(Cisco)和惠普(Hewlett-Packard)等公司表示,对中国的网络设备征收额外关税,最终会导致美国用户的上网成本增加。美国零售业联合会(National Retail Federation)表示生产商和中小型公司也会受到成本上涨的影响。中国宣称,如果白宫坚持提高关税,必将采取报复措施。这一切未知因素交织在一起,也难怪美国的首席执行官彻夜难眠了。

与此同时,特朗普现在还暗示要与日本开启新一轮贸易纠纷。他说,自己与日本领导层关系不错,不过“如果我告诉他们要付出怎样的代价,这种关系就会画上句号”。(顺带一提,这种“不错的关系”包括特朗普提醒日本首相安倍晋三“我可还记得珍珠港事件”,以及威胁要送给后者“2,500万墨西哥人”让他很快下台。)

所以,与美国存在未决争端的国家不仅有中国,也有日本,此外还包括欧盟、土耳其、加拿大和墨西哥——直到美墨贸易协定的细节敲定,双方签字为止。

总统表示,这些斗争是必要的,因为“几乎每个与美国做生意的国家,都在贸易上让美国损失了数十亿美元”。不过与此同时,美国的经济却在持续发展,工作岗位不断增加。今天的就业报告显示的失业率可能会低达3.8%,而岗位数量增速放缓,也主要是因为没有那么多人来填补空缺的岗位。尽管高盛(Goldman Sachs)预测由于关税的不确定性,一些公司也会暂缓招聘。

全世界都在等待特朗普的贸易决定,而亚洲市场惶恐不安也并不令人惊讶。不过会受到损失的,很可能不止是总统的贸易对手。(财富中文网)

译者:严匡正 

The public comment period for President Donald Trump’s proposed new round of tariffs on Chinese goods—worth an escalation-tastic $200 billion this time—ended Thursday. That means the 25% levies could start to hit any time now, although Bloomberg reports that big American tech companies and retailers have been making a last-minute effort to change the president’s mind.

Companies such as Cisco and Hewlett-Packard say tariffs on Chinese networking equipment will ultimately make it more expensive for American consumers to access the Internet. The National Retail Federation says manufacturers and small-to-mid-sized firms will also bear the brunt of raised costs. China is promising to retaliate if the White House moves ahead with the new tariffs. No surprise that U.S. CEOs are losing sleep over all the unknowns being thrown into the mix.

Meanwhile, Trump is now hinting at a new trade rumble with Japan. He has good relations with the Japanese leadership, he said, but “of course that will end as soon as I tell them how much they have to pay.” (Those good relations, incidentally, have reportedly included Trump telling Japanese Prime Minister Shinzo Abe “I remember Pearl Harbor” and threatening to depose him by sending him “25 million Mexicans.”)

So add Japan to the pile of unresolved disputes that includes not only China but the European Union, Turkey, Canada and—until the fine print is out and the ink dry—Mexico.

The president says these battles are necessary because the U.S. is “losing many billions of dollars on trade with virtually every country it does business with,” but, at the same time, the U.S. economy continues to boom and jobs continue to be added. Today’s jobs report is expected to show an unemployment rate of just 3.8%, with growth in new jobs slowing mainly because there aren’t enough people out there to fill all the vacant positions—though Goldman Sachs also reckons some companies are delaying new hires because of tariff uncertainty.

As the world awaits Trump’s trade decision, it’s no surprise to see jitters in Asian markets. But it may well be that the president’s trade opponents aren’t the only ones here with something to lose.

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