未来九天，这几个数据的发布对美国经济至关重要

过去十年，美联储一直在努力使备受衰退困扰的美国经济恢复健康。它们在降低失业率方面取得了巨大成功，但工资增长和通货膨胀却依旧缓慢，胜利似乎遥遥无期。

但未来一周可能为美联储锁定胜局。

未来九天公布的数据将补齐“数据拼图”，可能显示物价和薪酬上涨速度加快。其他重要的经济头条将给美联储带来更多关键信息，如美国财政部再融资以及大公司财报等。美联储即将实现一个里程碑：货币监管部门全面达成了所有目标，这在金融危机之后是极为罕见的。下面是一些值得我们关注的相关数据。

GDP，就业成本指数（4月27日）

第一季度的国内生产总值数据当然是周五的重头戏，但就业成本指数可能轻松抢走它的风头。就业成本指数将在周五上午8:30与GDP数据一同发布。金融市场对于通货膨胀压力增大的任何迹象都极其敏感，2月份平均时薪上涨，曾被解读为央行可能加快加息的信号。如果本季度的劳动成本数据强于预期，也可能产生类似的效应。劳动成本上涨对美联储而言是好消息，但美联储官员却一直无法解释为什么在低失业率背景下，收入增长却依旧缓慢。本周五，美国劳动成本数据可能抢走GDP的风头。值得一提的是，第一季度GDP增速可能从2017年末的2.9%放缓至2%。这符合年初GDP增长放缓的规律，经济学家预测第二季度将会反弹。

个人消费支出（4月30日）

如果说有一个数据能够证明美联储取得了胜利，则非个人消费支出莫属：个人消费支出是美联储偏爱的通胀指标。预计在3月份的报告中，核心个人消费支出约为2%，恰好实现目标。如果预测成真，这代表美联储基本上完成了国会的两个要求：增加就业（美联储官员认为早已完成了该项任务）和稳定通胀（美联储指定为2%）。诚然，央行行长们更关注趋势而不是一个月的数据，但实现其核心通胀目标，至少将使位于华盛顿的美联储艾克尔斯大楼内稍微松一口气。

5月1日至2日，负责政策制定的联邦开放市场委员会（Federal Open Market Committee）将在华盛顿召开会议，对通货膨胀的双向调控也将成为讨论的议题。美联储官员不会发布新的经济预测，预计也不会宣布加息，但如果物价涨幅较大，美联储可能在会后的公告中更新对通货膨胀的评估。

财政部再融资（5月2日）

周三，所有人都将关注与美国财政部再融资公告有关的财政政策，这些政策将说明美国政府计划如何支付日益扩大的预算赤字。一方面，财政部正在努力应对政府日益扩大的财政赤字，另一方面，美联储允许从资产负债表中剥离国债，因此2月份的再融资标志着财政部开始增加票据与债券销售。债券经纪商预测美国财政部将在上一季度的基础上，继续加速全面扩大票据与债券拍卖规模。另外，许多人预计财政部将增加通胀挂钩债券的销售。为什么这对经济至关重要？因为从理论上来讲，债券越多，代表市场利率面临的上行压力越大。

就业报告（5月4日）

劳工部公布4月份就业报告时，工资压力将再次成为焦点。月度就业报告将显示雇主净增加了多少就业岗位，并使外界可以了解到薪酬的最新变化。市场和美联储将密切关注平均时薪的增长。3月份的平均时薪涨幅为2.7%。

另外一个值得关注的指数是劳动力参与率，因为整体劳动力参与率一直保持稳定，核心劳动力参与率有所提高。高盛（Goldman Sachs）经济学家认为，这一趋势可能正在接近顶点，但包括彭博经济（Bloomberg Economics）首席美国经济学家卡尔·里卡唐纳在内的其他人却认为依旧存在上升空间。他表示：“对参与率的真正考验是工资压力。”如前文所述，到目前为止，工资压力并未得到缓解。

财报，供应管理协会

高级别的经济数据并不是凭空出现的：现在是财报季，透过美国公司的财报，我们可以一窥消费者与公司的表现。一方面，他们受益于强劲的经济。另一方面，他们又面临着巨大的不确定性。星巴克（Starbucks）与麦当劳（McDonald’s）将分别在4月26日和4月30日发布季度报告。在紧缩的就业市场当中工资压力是否日益加剧，以及消费者支出是否在增长，这些问题或许可以从这两家公司的财报中找到答案。卡夫亨氏（Kraft Heinz）（5月2日）和家乐氏（Kellogg）（5月3日）的数据或许可以表明通货膨胀水平是否将继续缓慢上升，虽然这两家公司所在的行业普遍不景气，因此很难提高价格。

别忘了还有供应管理协会（Institute for Supply Management）的月度指数。我们可以通过这些指数了解特朗普政府的关税措施，在4月份对美国公司的业务活动和定价能力产生了哪些影响。该协会将在5月1日发布制造业指标，5月3日发布服务业指标。（财富中文网）

译者：刘进龙/汪皓

The Federal Reserve has spent the past decade coaxing a recession-torn U.S. economy back to health. They’ve had resounding success in slashing unemployment, yet wage growth and inflation have remained stubbornly slow – keeping victory at bay.

The week ahead could finally clinch it.

Data released over the next nine days could show both accelerating prices and pay, like pieces of a data puzzle clicking into place. Other major economic headlines will bring key news for the central bank, from a Treasury refunding to bellwether earnings reports. Here’s what to watch as the Fed closes in on a milestone that will make it a rarity in the post-crisis world: a monetary authority that has hit all of its targets on the nose.

GDP, Employment Cost Index (April 27)

Gross domestic product data for the first quarter will be the main event on Friday, but a side act — the Employment Cost Index — could easily steal the show. The figures will be released alongside GDP at 8:30 a.m. Financial markets are sensitive to any signs of stronger inflationary pressures, and they interpreted a jump in average hourly earnings back in February as a sign that the central bank might pick up the pace. If this quarterly series on labor costs comes in stronger than expected, it could have a similar effect. Any pickup would be welcome news at the Fed, though: Officials have been puzzled that slow pay gains have persisted despite low unemployment. Gauge of U.S. Worker Costs May Steal GDP’s Spotlight This FridayFor what it’s worth, GDP is likely to show a slowdown to 2% for the first quarter from 2.9% at the end of 2017. That fits a pattern of early-in-the-year slowdowns, and economists expect a second-quarter rebound.

Personal Consumption Expenditures (April 30)

If a single data point could crown the Fed victorious, it’s this one: PCE is the Fed’s preferred inflation gauge, and the March report is expected to come in at just about 2 percent on a core basis – right on target. If that happens, the Fed will have basically achieved its dual mandate from Congress, which calls for maximum employment (Fed officials think they’ve checked that box) and stable inflation (the Fed itself has specified 2%). Granted, central bankers put more weight on trends than one month of data, but a bull’s eye on their inflation goal will be met with at least a little relief inside the Fed’s Eccles Building in Washington.

A 2-handle on inflation might also feature in the debate on May 1-2, when the policy-setting Federal Open Market Committee meets in Washington. Officials won’t release new economic projections and aren’t expected to hike rates, but if price gains come in strong, the Fed could potentially upgrade its assessment of inflation in the post-meeting statement.

Treasury Refunding (May 2)

On Wednesday, all eyes will be on fiscal policy with the Treasury’s refunding announcement, which will map out how the government plan to fund a rising budget deficit. February’s refunding marked the start of a ramp up in note and bond sales as Treasury seeks to fund the government’s growing deficit and the Fed allows debt to roll off its balance sheet. Bond dealers predict Treasury will add to last quarter’s acceleration with another across-the-board lift in note and bond auction sizes. Many expect the department will also increase inflation-linked debt sales this time around. Why does it matter for the economy? Because more bonds theoretically means more upward pressure on market interest rates.

Jobs Report (May 4)

Wage pressures will take center stage again when the Labor Department releases its April jobs report. The monthly figures will show how many positions employers added on net, and they’ll give an up-to-date glimpse at how pay is shaping up. Both markets and the Fed will be watching out for an increase in average hourly earnings, which came in at 2.7% in March.

The labor force participation rate is another index to watch, because it’s stabilized overall and increased for prime-age workers. Goldman Sachs economists think that trend may be nearing its apex, but others — including Carl Riccadonna, Bloomberg Economics chief U.S. economist — say it could have room to run. “The true test of participation is wage pressures,” he said. And, as previously noted, those have yet to take off.

Earnings, ISM

High-level economic data won’t come in a vacuum: It’s earnings season, and U.S. companies are offering snapshots of how consumers and businesses are faring. On one hand, they’re benefiting from a strong economy. On the other, they face huge uncertainties. Quarterly reports from Starbucks on April 26 and McDonald’s on April 30 may give signs as to whether wage pressure is intensifying in a tight labor market and consumer spending is rising. Data from Kraft Heinz (May 2) and Kellogg (May 3), which are struggling with an industry-wide slump that has made it tough to raise prices, may indicate whether inflation will continue to slowly climb.

And don’t forget the monthly indexes from the Institute for Supply Management, which will indicate how the Trump administration’s tariffs affected Corporate America’s business activity and pricing power in April. The group’s manufacturing gauge is due May 1, and the services measure is out May 3.