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2020年美国预算赤字预计将突破1万亿美元

彭博社 2018年04月17日

减税和支出法案带来了财政刺激,在短期内对实际GDP的提振幅度要超过潜在GDP。

美国国会预算办公室(CBO)预计,到2020年美国预算赤字将突破1万亿美元,比此前预计的时间早了两年,原因是唐纳德·特朗普总统颁布的减税和增加支出政策几乎没能提高长期经济增长率。

作为美国国会无党派机构,CBO上周一发布报告称,在截至今年9月30日的2018财年中,美国政府的支出将比收入多8040亿美元,远高于去年6月预测的5630亿美元。2019财年这个数字将达到9810亿美元,而此前的预期为6890亿。

CBO在去年6月的报告中认为预算赤字要到2022财年才会超过1万亿美元。

包括新的税收和支出法案在内,2018-2027年美国政府的累计赤字将达到11.7万亿美元,比CBO去年6月预测的数字高1.6万亿美元左右。该报告指出,CBO预计在此期间美国政府收入将减少2%,支出将增加1%。

CBO称,减税和支出法案“带来了财政刺激,在短期内对实际GDP的提振幅度要超过潜在GDP。长期而言,所有这些因素的影响,再加上新法案造成联邦预算赤字增大,将给利率和价格带来上行压力。”

入不敷出

赤字不断上升的原因包括特朗普政府今年对税收的调整将使美国政府今后10年的收入减少1万亿美元以上,以及国会批准将政府支出增加约3000亿美元。投资者正在衡量中美关税冲突对全球经济的潜在影响,CBO的最新预测可能会让他们更加担心。

即使是在上述最新财政政策颁布前,由于美国人口老龄化给医疗保健和退休养老带来的压力,其预算赤字预计也将扩大。

特朗普政府此前曾表示,减税将加快经济增速,从而抵销政府赤字增大的影响。

CBO基于第四季度同比数字预计,2018日历年美国实际GDP将增长3.3%,2019和2020年增速将回落至2.4%和1.8%。去年6月CBO曾预测今年美国GDP将增2%。

CBO指出:“2020-2026年将有一系列因素妨碍经济增长,包括利率和价格上升,联邦政府支出增速放慢以及个人所得税减税政策到期。”

经济增长

该报告同时预测,2019年美国平均失业率将从今年的3.8%降至3.3%。

CBO主任基思·霍尔本周将就该报告在参议院和众议院预算委员会作证。

美国国会尚未打算在11月份中期选举前推出削减赤字的重大政策。众议院虽将起草预算解决方案,但参议院已经暗示不会接受众议院的提案。如果无法迅速就预算问题达成一致,保守派共和党人寻求的削减支出法案就根本不可能生效,原因是民主党可以在参议院阻挠此项法案的通过。

众议院计划在几周内就平衡预算修正案进行象征性投票,而且正在讨论拿出一个一揽子方案,以取消此前的综合支出法案中增加部分国内开支的计划。

机会了了

这些增加支出的计划是应民主党的要求加入综合支出法案的,原因是通过该法案需要民主党参议员的赞成票。。即便该一揽子方案只需要共和党的50票就能在参议院获得通过,但分析师们认为它几乎不可能生效,因为这会削弱共和党领袖今后就跨党派事务与民主党讨价还价的能力。

CBO的基本预期是在现有法案继续生效的情况下做出的预测。该机构假设,国会定期上调的年度拨款预算上限仍会存在。这种情况下,美国政府的预算赤字甚至有可能超过CBO预测的水平。(财富中文网)

译者:Charlie

审校:夏林

 

The U.S. budget deficit will surpass $1 trillion by 2020, two years sooner than previously estimated, as tax cuts and spending increases signed by President Donald Trump do little to boost long-term economic growth, according to the Congressional Budget Office.

Spending will exceed revenue by $804 billion in the fiscal year ending Sept. 30, jumping from a projected $563 billion shortfall forecast in June, the non-partisan arm of Congress said in a report last Monday. In fiscal 2019, the deficit will reach $981 billion, compared with an earlier projection of $689 billion.

Deficits were only set to surpass the trillion-dollar level in fiscal 2022 under CBO’s report last June.

The U.S. cumulative deficit — taking into account the new tax and spending legislation — will be $11.7 trillion from 2018 to 2027, about $1.6 trillion larger than the CBO projection in June. The CBO forecast 2 percent less revenue and 1 percent more spending over the period, it said.

The tax-cut and spending legislation “provide fiscal stimulus, raising real GDP more than potential GDP in the near term,” the CBO said. “Over the longer term, all of those effects, as well as the larger federal budget deficits resulting from the new laws, exert upward pressure on interest rates and prices.”

Revenue Shortfall

Deficits are growing as the Trump administration enacted a tax overhaul this year that will lower federal revenue by more than a $1 trillion over the next decade and Congress approved a roughly $300 billion spending increase. The fresh CBO estimates could heighten investor worries as they weigh the potential impact that tariff threats between the U.S. and China may have on the world economy.

Even before the latest fiscal measures, the U.S. budget gap was predicted to increase as an aging American population puts pressure on health care and retirement programs.

The Trump administration has said tax cuts will lead to faster economic growth that would offset deficit expansion.

CBO estimated that real gross domestic product will expand by 3.3 percent in the 2018 calendar year, before slowing to 2.4 percent in 2019 and 1.8 percent in 2020, based on the fourth quarter year-over-year figure. In June, CBO forecast 2 percent growth this year.

“During the 2020-2026 period, a number of factors dampen economic growth: higher interest rates and prices, slower growth in federal outlays, and the expiration of reductions in personal income tax rates,” CBO said.

Economic Growth

The report sees unemployment declining to 3.3 percent in 2019 on an annual average, from 3.8 percent this year.

CBO Director Keith Hall will testify about the report this week before the House and Senate budget committees.

Congress isn’t planning to enact any major deficit-cutting legislation before the November midterm elections. While the House will draft a budget resolution, the Senate has indicated it won’t take one up. Without the fast-track budget reconciliation, there is no chance entitlement cuts conservative Republicans are seeking can be enacted because Democrats can employ a Senate filibuster.

The House plans a symbolic vote on a balanced budget amendment in the coming weeks and is also discussing bringing forward a package to cancel some of the domestic spending increases from the omnibus spending bill.

Little Chance

Those increases were put in the bill at the request of Democrats since the legislation required Senate Democratic votes to pass. Analysts see little chance of enactment for the legislation, which would undermined the ability of Republican leaders to negotiate future bipartisan deals, even though it can clear the Senate with just 50 Republican votes.

The CBO baseline represents what it projects will happen if current law is allowed to remain in effect. CBO assumes that budget caps on annual appropriations, which Congress has raised regularly, remain in effect. Because of that, deficits are likely to be even larger than CBO is projecting.

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