天价茅台是怎样酿成的？还要持续多久？

茅台酒的香气如此独特，你一闻到就绝对不会认错。茅台镇，风景如画的小镇坐落于中国西南，人口虽仅十万，却坐拥着全球市值最高的白酒公司。走过茅台镇的大街小巷，到处能闻到贵州茅台的独特酒香。

但是在路边大大小小的商店里，所有的茅台酒几乎都被抢购而空。每个卖茅台酒的商店都排着队。老百姓抢购茅台酒的狂潮，以及由此导致的库存短缺，已经蔓延到了全国范围。

茅台炽烈的酒香和升值前景，使得市场需求不断看涨。需求的上扬反过来又推动其市值涨到了1450亿美元以上，远远超过了英国威士忌巨头迪阿吉奥的市值。茅台集团的主打品牌——飞天茅台每瓶的批发价为969元人民币（约150美元），零售价更达到1499元。就这样，飞天茅台在线上线下的实际售价也经常翻倍。茅台的官网显示飞天茅台已经断货了。在京东上，一瓶80年的茅台已经被炒到196888元（约3万美元）。

茅台酒一来口感醇厚，二来纯度较高，喝了不上头，因此深受中国广大消费者的喜爱。但它独特的生产工艺也限制了产量。酿酒的谷物和水必须来自茅台镇本地，而且纯正的茅台酒浆必须要窑藏至少四年才能上市。也正是由于茅台产能跟不上需求，宜宾五粮液等规模较小的竞争对手才得以快速在白酒市场上抢占份额。

在存货卖光的情况下如何继续令公司保持增长，成了摆在茅台董事长袁仁国面前的难题。在去年12月接受采访时，袁仁国表示，面对这种情况，公司计划基于茅台品牌推出更多的超高端和定制化产品。

他表示：“两千年前，中国的名片是丝绸；一千年前，中国的名片是瓷器；500年前，中国的名片是茶叶。现在，中国的名片是拥有自主知识产权的民族品牌，我认为茅台就是其中之一。”

烈酒之王

虽然老外很少喝茅台，但中共领导人们对茅台酒一向是谜之热爱。1949年，毛泽东等第一代党和国家领导人们就是举着茅台酒庆祝共和国的成立的。中央“反四风”的规定出台后，政府官员对茅台酒的需求骤减，但普通老百姓买得越来越多。失之东隅，得之桑榆，茅台的需求依然在高歌猛进。

今年61岁的袁仁国希望推出更多的定制产品。比如该公司专门为澳门的一家博彩公司定制了一款售价6000港币的限量版茅台。另外公司还推出了纪念中国抗战胜利70周年限量版茅台，官网售价每瓶1999元——当然它们也早已售罄。另外公司还可以销售价格更高的“陈年白酒”，也就是窑藏的年份越高，价格越贵，当然利润也就越高。

袁仁国表示：“由于销量明年还是这么多，我们认为可以通过这种战略保持收入增长。”袁仁国认为，通过推出更多高端产品，2018年，公司的营收入有望在2017年的600多亿元人民币的基础上再增长10%以上。

袁仁国在茅台已经工作四十年了。他也在尝试增加产量，不过他表示，凭公司拥有的土地面积，它的白酒年产量到6万吨就是极限了。虽然这个数字比去年39313吨的产量高53%，但6万吨也反应了产能扩张的终点。

据桑福德伯恩斯坦公司的分析师估算，未来三到五年，茅台集团必须将供应量的年增长率限制在4%以内，才能在不消耗太多窑藏陈酒的前提下，保证飞天茅台品牌的正常销售。

据该公司估算，飞天茅台的供应量猛增了38个百分点，这表明茅台集团为了短期效益，从未来“借”了不少存货。“这种消耗速度是不能持久的。”该公司分析师尤安·麦克利什表示。

价格飙升

在产能受限的情况下，保持收入增长最简单的方法当然是提高售价。去年12月，茅台宣布将售价上调18%，其股价应声上涨超过8%。不过中国已对高端白酒的价格做出了限制。作为一家国有企业，茅台集团也必然要响应政府号召，展现一定的公益精神。所以将基础品牌大幅涨价的做法显然也是不可持续的。茅台集团表示，已经要求附属企业保持价格稳定，要求零售商避免囤货。

另外，作为省内最盈利的企业之一，茅台还必须展示一定的社会责任感，尤其是它所在的贵州省还是一个穷省。虽然中国各大企业、工厂早已投入了自动化的大潮，但茅台集团还是有意地大量使用人力生产，以促进当地就业，就连每瓶飞天茅台上的红丝带都是由工人手工系上去的。另外茅台集团还刚刚创办了一所非盈利性的茅台大学，并且在国内率先设立了白酒酿造学位，以为白酒行业提供更多专业人才。

今年20岁的武远见（音）刚刚进入茅台大学就读，他认为白酒酿造学学位是进入这个热门产业的敲门砖。“我毕业后想进入茅台的销售部门，因为在那儿能赚更多钱。”

现金雄厚

坐拥690亿现金，底气雄厚的茅台集团还想通过子公司进入保险和资产管理等金融领域。袁仁国还在计划推动旗下的三个子公司上市，第一个是电商业务，第二个是一家农业公司，第三个则是更为平价的习酒品牌。

彭博社的数据显示，去年，高盛公司14次调高了茅台的股价建议，其他分析师对茅台股票也纷纷看涨。目前，有26位分析师对茅台股票给出了“买入”评级，3位给出了“持有”评级，没有一位分析师建议卖出。

虽然茅台股价去年大幅飙升，但官方媒体新华社却呼吁投资人谨慎投资，并表示茅台股价应以较慢的速度上涨。连茅台集团自己也发表声明称，分析师的股价目标和市场估值“过高”了。

不过在短暂下滑后，茅台股价继续保持强势上涨，2017年全年累计涨幅达到了109%。（财富中文网）

译者：朴成奎 

You know you’re in Maotai when you smell it. The picturesque town of about 100,000 in southwestern China is home to the world’s most valuable liquor company — and the soy-sauce-like scent of the Chinese grain alcohol baijiu, made by the eponymous Kweichow Moutai Co., permeates the main street.

But inside the liquor stores along the road, the distiller’s main brands are all sold out. Lines form wherever bottles are available. The buying frenzy — and resulting inventory shortages — extend nation-wide.

Moutai baijiu’s fiery flavor and potential to appreciate in price is driving the blistering demand. That in turn has pushed its market value to more than $145 billion, well past British whisky giant Diageo Plc. The Chinese firm sells each bottle of its main Flying Fairy brand to distributors for 969 yuan ($150) and sets a suggested resale ceiling of 1,499 yuan, yet they routinely go for double online and off. Its website is out of stock. On shopping site JD.com, an 80-year bottle is listed for 196,888 yuan ($30,000).

Chinese buyers say they like Moutai’s baijiu for its complex flavor and a purity that prevents hangovers — but its special manufacturing process also puts limits on its production. The grain and water used to make it must come from Maotai town and the brew must be buried in urns for at least four years before it’s sold. As the state-owned giant grapples with shortages, smaller rivals like Wuliangye Yibin Co. are already starting to win more business.

All that’s putting Moutai’s chairman, Yuan Renguo, in the difficult position of having to sustain growth even as his company literally runs out of liquor. In a rare interview in December, he said the answer will lie — at least partly — in introducing more ultra-premium and customized products that capitalize on the Moutai brand.

“Two thousand years ago, the Chinese calling card was lions, 1,000 years ago it was Chinese porcelain, 500 years ago it was tea leaves and now it’s local brands with their own intellectual property,” he said. “I believe Moutai is one of these.”

Fiery Liquor

While few outside China buy the liquor, Moutai baijiu is baked into national myth as the drink of choice for Communist Party leaders. It’s what Mao Zedong and his comrades toasted with at the founding of the People’s Republic in 1949. Just four years ago, the distiller was battling a slowdown as an austerity drive in Beijing slashed demand from government officials. But purchases by ordinary Chinese have more than compensated since then.

Yuan, 61, wants to sell more customized lines, like the HK$6,000 ($767) bottles with the company’s label that was created exclusively for a Macau junket operator. He’s added more limited edition bottles like the ones Moutai created for the 70th anniversary of China’s World War II victory over Japan. That one is listed for 1,999 yuan on the company’s website, though it’s also sold out. Then there’s the opportunity to sell higher priced “mature baijiu” — the older the baijiu, the more expensive (and profitable) it is.

“Since sales volume will stay constant next year, we think we can maintain revenue growth through this strategy,” Yuan said, referring to the more premium products. Moutai expects revenue in 2017 to exceed 60 billion yuan, and to rise more than 10 percent in 2018.

Yuan, who has been at the company for four decades, is also attempting to increase production. But he said Moutai won’t be able to produce more than 60,000 metric tons of its baijiu annually, based on the land it controls. While that’s 53 percent more than last year’s production of 39,313 tons, the numbers reflect the endpoint to potential expansion.

Analysts at Sanford C. Bernstein & Co. estimate Moutai will have to limit its supply growth to 4 percent annually for the next three to five years to be able to sell the Flying Fairy brand sustainably — without using up too much of its stores of aging liquor.

They estimate Moutai boosted supply of Flying Fairy by 38 percent in 2017, implying it borrowed from the future in order to deliver a short-term result. “Continuing this pace of depletion is not sustainable,” said Bernstein analyst Euan McLeish.

Price Hikes

In the face of production limits, the easiest way to keep revenue growing is, of course, to raise prices. An 18 percent price increase announced by Moutai in December drove its shares up more than 8 percent. Still, Beijing puts restrictions on the prices of high-end liquor. And as a state-owned enterprise, Moutai is also expected to display a certain public spirit. So relying too heavily on price increases of its basic brands isn’t sustainable. The company has said it has asked affiliates to keep prices stable and told retailers to prevent hoarding.

There’s also the sense of social responsibility that Moutai must show, particularly as a profitable business in Guizhou, one of China’s poorest provinces. Even as factories around the country embrace automation, its factory floor remains deliberately manpower heavy — the ribbon on each Moutai bottle is still tied by hand. It’s also just opened a non-profit university, Moutai University, the first in China to offer baijiu distillation as its core degree, to create even more experts on the luxury drink.

Wu Yuanjian, 20, who recently enrolled, sees a distillation degree as an entry ticket into a hot business. “I want to join the sales department of Moutai actually,” he said. “You can make more money there.”

Cash Pile

Sitting on a massive cash pile of more than 69 billion yuan, the chairman’s other plans include expanding the company’s finance business through subsidiaries in insurance and asset management. He’s also weighing public listings of three of its units: its e-commerce business, an agricultural arm and another that sells its less-expensive baijiu, known as Xijiu or Xi liquor.

Last year, Goldman Sachs Group Inc. upgraded its price recommendation on Moutai’s shares 14 times, data compiled by Bloomberg show, and other analysts also issued bullish views. At the moment, there are 26 analysts with buy ratings, three with hold ratings and no sell recommendations.

But as the shares surged last year, the state-owned Xinhua News Agency urged investors to be more cautious, saying the stock should rise at a slower pace. The company issued its own statement saying analysts’ share price targets and valuations in the market were “overly high.”

After a brief decline, however, the shares resumed their surge and ended about 109 percent higher for 2017.