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政府停摆将会对美国经济造成哪些影响?

Lucinda Shen 2018年01月24日

对这个问题,没人能给出一个确切的答案。

美国政府的关门危机已经迫在眉睫了——美国国会是否会在周五午夜的“最后期限”前通过短期支出法案,抑或美国联邦政府将不得不暂时关门?

对这个问题,没人能给出一个确切的答案。分析师们认为,这一次美国政府停摆的机率大约在20%至65%之间。

美国政府停摆后会发生什么?这个问题倒是不难猜测。看看2013年10月的那次联邦政府停摆危机,你就能发现一些线索。

首先,在政府关门期间,行政、立法、司法等政府部门的联邦雇员或许可享受无薪休假,只留下一些“重要”员工在岗值班。像领社保这样涉及民生的大事应该不会受到影响。

2013年,美国联邦政府曾短暂停摆两个星期,不过政府关门对美国经济的影响并不严重。只不过由于公务员们领不到工资,对消费略微有些影响,因而当季美国的GDP出现小幅下挫。另外由于国税局的雇员们全都去休假了,当时约有40亿美元的退税没有即时退还。白宫预算局称,那次政府停摆大约导致纳税人损失了20亿美元。另外在16天的政府停摆中,美国各大国家公园也闭门谢客,大约损失了5亿美元的门票收入。

在那次政府停摆期间,一些药品和医疗服务迟迟没法药监局审批,因此也对美国各大制药公司造成了一些影响。此外很多投资者的证券投资都是基于政府的统计数据来做的,而在政府停摆期间,各个政府部门也不再发布消费者价格指数和就业数据等经济指标数据了,这显然也给投资者造成了影响。

不过在2013年的政府停摆结束后,联邦政府通过了一项法规,给受影响的联邦雇员补发了工资。

再回到眼下,另一轮政府停摆距离我们也许只有几个小时了。分析师对于当前的局面有什么要说的呢?

Evercore ISI公司的分析师丹尼斯·迪巴斯切尔指出,虽然全球股市出现涨势,但美国政府停摆很可能会对美元造成压力。

尽管美国政府停摆危机对美元造成一定压力,但全球证券市场今晨继续上扬。美国能源署表示,受油价上涨影响,非OPEC国家的原油供应量有所增加,此消息导致WTI和布伦特原油期货价格有所下降。欧洲各国的PPI数据要好于预期,表明目前的通胀压力虽然不大但仍在增长。这将进一步推高债息,并鼓励各国央行进一步将目前过度调控的货币政策正常化。同时日本央行也再次表示,他们相信通胀水平将进一步提高,不过他们对是否应该尽早收紧仍犹豫未决。

在美国市场上,道琼斯工业平均指数整体波澜不惊,标普500指数略微上涨0.22个百分点。

政府停摆也有可能给美国经济带来长期的负面影响。Height Analytics公司分析师斯蒂夫妮·米勒认为,此次政府停摆的可能性高达65%,并表示在2013年的政府停摆期间,很多无薪休假的联邦公务员都停止了消费。

或将持续几周的政府停摆已经成了一个具有现实可能性的问题,并且将造成相当大的影响。一些此前支持12月21日的持续性决议案(CR)的国会议员现在已经表示反对通过另一个短期CR,并要求在投票表决一揽子支出计划前,要先出台一份最终的2018年财年预算。正如我们此前所写的那样,这一揽子支出计划在一周内是很难通过的。在2013年10月那次持续数周的政府停摆中,美国的当季年化GDP增长率下降了0.25%。另外在两周的政府停摆期间,私人部门就业数下降了12万人。约80万休假的政府公务员累计削减了7%左右的购物行为。虽然这一次休假公务员本月月底会补发工资,但他们的消费行为同样会受到影响(包括对汽油的消费),各类账单的兑付也会被推迟。

在总结2013年政府停摆的影响时,奥巴马政府也曾罗列过类似的数据,并表示政府停摆的实际影响可能比分析师估算的更加严重。

高盛分析师艾利克·菲利浦斯表示,他认为美国政府停摆的概率在35%左右——不过他认为国会通过短期融资延长协议的可能性更大。

只要停摆的时间不要太长,政府停摆对经济的影响是有限的。我们认为,政府每停摆一个星期,将导致当季年实际年化GDP增长率下降0.2%。不过这种效应在下季度就会扭转。过去几十年间,美国最引人注意的几次政府停摆都与债务限额到期有关,而即便是这样,也只是引起了证券市场的暂时下跌,对国债收益和美元的影响则更小。目前债务限额到期的风险离我们还有很远,因而预计金融市场对政府停摆将不会做出过度反应。

Horizon公司的首席全球策略师格雷格·瓦利埃则指出,目前真正的风险在于华盛顿的政治因素。

虽然我们可能面临政府长期停摆的风险,但国会也很有可能赶在周五前通过紧急延长决议。但双方仍然存在不可调和的分歧,而且白宫对这个问题也没有统一的领导力。所以不管最后一分钟出台了什么救急的法子,它仍然是暂时性的。现在双方已经开始互相推卸责任打嘴仗了。

正如我们昨天所写的那样,一次相对较短的政府停摆对经济的影响是有限的。真正的问题是政治问题,大家只关心在秋季的选举之前谁占了上风。两党现在已经迫不及待地指责对方了。这就是华盛顿的思维。

他还指出,就算这次政府停摆了,很多政府职能仍将继续运转。

很多政府职能将不会受到影响。社保支票仍可以继续领,航空管制和运输管理部门会继续工作,联邦应急管理局会继续组织救灾,疾控中心会继续开放,联邦监狱和退伍军人医院也不会受到影响。邮政局会继续寄信,军队会继续站岗,罗伯特·穆勒的“通俄门”调查也会继续搞——这只是一个部分名单,其他将正常运转的政府部门还有很多。

众议院已经通过了短期支出法案,现在,所有人的眼睛都盯着参议院了。(财富中文网)

译者:朴成奎 

It’s the question of the day: Will Congress pass the short-term spending bill by its midnight Friday deadline, or will the federal government temporarily shutdown?

No one can say for sure—analysts say the chance of a shutdown ranges anywhere from 20 to 65%.

But it may be easier to gauge what might happen should a shutdown occur. Analysts need only look back to the October 2013 event for clues of what may unfold.

For starters, during a government shutdown, federal employees in the executive, legislative, and judicial branches are potentially eligible for unpaid leave, leaving some “essential” workers still in the system. Social security checks, for example, are expected to remain unaffected.

The approximately two-week shutdown in 2013 did, however, leave a modest mark on the U.S. economy, with GDP down slightly during that quarter as a result of unpaid workers spending less. Also, some $4 billion in tax refunds were delayed as a result of furloughed workers in the Internal Revenue Service, with the Office of Management and Budget saying the shutdown cost taxpayers some $2 billion in lost productivity. National parks alone lost some $500 million in revenue, as they, too, shut their gates during the 16-day shutdown.

The shutdown also impacted drug companies with the Food and Drug Administration delaying approval of medical devices and drugs. Investors also lost out on their regular doses of economic data which are often used to buy stocks or price goods. During the shutdown, federal agencies did not report the jobs numbers or consumer price index, among other data sets.

Notably, following the 2013 shutdown, the government passed a bill to retroactively pay its workers for the time lost.

Fast forward to this year, and another potential shutdown may be hours away. Here’s what analysts have to say regarding the current situation:

Evercore ISI analyst Dennis DeBusschere noted that while global stocks are trending higher, the threat of a shutdown is weighing on the U.S. dollar:

Global equity markets are higher this morning despite rising concerns of a U.S. government shutdown that is weighing further on the dollar. WTI and Brent are lower after the EIA said the see non-OPEC supply gains growing in response to higher oil prices. PPI data released across Europe were better than expected, suggesting inflationary pressures, while still modest, are continuing to increase. That should continue to push bond yields higher and encourage central bankers to move toward normalizing still extremely accommodative monetary policy. Along those lines, the BoJ reiterated that they are confident inflation will move higher, even as they remain hesitant to tighten too quickly

In the U.S, the Dow Jones Industrial Average is trading largely flat, while the S&P 500 nudged up 0.22%.

A shutdown could also have longer-term negative effects on the U.S. economy. Height Analytics’ Stefanie Miller, who sees a 65% chance of Congress entering such a state again, pointed to the last shutdown in 2013 in which many furloughed federal employees stopped spending.

A multi-week government shutdown would likely be meaningful and is a real possibility given the fact that some members of Congress who previously supported the December 21 continuing resolution (CR) are now resisting the idea of another short-term CR and are instead demanding a finalized FY 2018 budget deal before they’ll vote for a spending package. As we’ve written previously, that package will be difficult to deliver in less than a week. During the last multi-week shutdown in October 2013, annualized GDP growth for the quarter fell by 0.25%. Additionally, private sector jobs decreased by 120,000 during the two-week shutdown. Shopping by some 800,000 furloughed federal employees fell by 7%. As income of furloughed workers shifted to later in the month, consumption habits shifted as well (including on gasoline) and bill payments were delayed.

Indeed, when tallying up the impact of the 2013 shutdown, President Barack Obama’s administration noted those same figures, adding that it may even be worse than estimated.

Goldman Sachs analyst Alec Phillips said he anticipates a 35% chance of a shutdown—though he believes a short-term extension is more likely.

A shutdown would have a modest economic impact, provided it does not last very long. We estimate that each week of shutdown would reduce real GDP growth in Q1 by 0.2 [percentage points, quarter over quarter] annualized. The effects would be reversed the next quarter, however. Shutdowns have also tended to have modest effects on financial markets. Most of the notable shutdowns over the last few decades coincided with debt limit deadlines. Even so, those led to only modest and temporary declines in equities and even smaller effects in Treasury yields and the dollar. With the debt limit deadline farther away, we would expect a muted initial reaction in financial markets to a shutdown.

Horizon’s Chief Global Strategist Greg Valliere, meanwhile, noted that the real stakes lie in the politics in Washington, D.C.

Thus we may be in for a long shutdown: It’s possible that Congress could pass an emergency extension before midnight tonight, but both sides are hopelessly divided—and there’s no coherent leadership from the White House—so any last-minute reprieve would be exceedingly temporary. Both sides have already moved on to the blame game.

As we wrote yesterday, a relatively brief shutdown will have a modest impact on the economy. The real stakes, at least initially, are political—who gets the upper hand as the spin battle begins ahead of the fall elections. Both parties can’t wait to blame each other; this is how Washington thinks.

He also noted that much of the government will continue operating despite the shutdown:

Much would be exempted: Social Security checks wouldn’t be affected. Air traffic controllers and TSA screeners would continue to work. FEMA would react to natural disasters. The Centers for Disease Control would stay open. Federal prisons and VA hospitals would not be affected. The Postal Service would deliver the mail. Military readiness would not be affected. And Robert Mueller’s probe would continue. This is just a partial list.

All eyes are on the Senate to see what will transpire, now that the House has already passed a short-term spending bill.

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