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中国经济增速优于预期

路透社 2018年01月23日

中国决策者一直试图在不影响经济增长的情况下控制金融风险,减缓债务爆炸性增长。

得益于工业的反弹、房地产市场的恢复和出口的强劲增长,中国第四季度的经济增速优于去年的预测。

上周四发布的官方数据显示,2017年10月至12月的经济同比去年增长6.8%,与第三季度持平,高于分析师预测的6.7%。2017年全年的经济增长率为6.9%,这也是2010年以来的首次经济提速。

中国决策者一直试图在不影响经济增长的情况下控制金融风险,减缓债务爆炸性增长。

这个全球第二大经济体轻松突破了政府制定的2017年约6.5%的增长目标,也超越了2016年6.7%的26年来新低。

ING香港办事处的大中华区经济学家艾丽斯·庞表示:“中国的增长非常健康。”

“我们在2017年担忧的风险,例如削减过剩产能给GDP带来的负面影响,并未出现,因为新的行业挺身而出推动了生产总值的增长。”国家统计局表示,第四季度的GDP环比增长1.6%,而7月至9月的环比增长为1.8%。

今年的增长是在政府进一步限制风险投资和高杠杆率,同时着力解决污染问题的情况下实现的。

尽管整体增长强劲,但经济增长势头放缓的迹象依然存在,公司面临着更高的借贷成本,政府也试图控制信贷。

主要依托于政府引导的固定资产投资在2017年的增速为7.2%,是1999年以来的最低值。中国的进出口增速在11月迎来飙升后,12月也有所回落,这进一步表明经济增长的势头开始消退。

与此同时,随着政府持续控制金融系统风险,中国的银行放款在12月减少了一半,但在审核更严格的情况下,银行仍然设法实现了年度放款量的新高。(财富中文网)

译者:严匡正 

China’s economy grew faster than expected in the fourth quarter from a year earlier, helped by a rebound in the industrial sector, a resilient property market and strong export growth.

Official data on Thursday showed growth in the October to December period from a year earlier was 6.8%, unchanged from the third quarter and above analyst expectations for 6.7% growth. Growth for the 2017 full year picked up to 6.9% year-on-year, the first annual acceleration for the economy since 2010.

Chinese policymakers have been trying to contain financial risks and slow an explosive build-up in debt without stunting economic growth.

The world’s second-largest economy easily beat the government’s target of around 6.5% for 2017 and quickened from 2016 growth of 6.7%, which was the weakest pace in 26 years.

“China‘s growth is very healthy,” said Iris Pang, Greater China Economist, ING, Hong Kong.

“The risks that we worried about in 2017, for example overcapacity cuts having a negative impact on GDP, did not happen because new sectors are actually coming out to help production to grow.” GDP in the fourth quarter grew 1.6 percent quarter-on-quarter, compared with revised growth of 1.8 percent in July-September, the National Bureau of Statistics said.

The annual pickup in growth comes as the government steps up its crackdown on risky investment and high leverage ratios as well as its fight against pollution.

Despite strong overall growth, there have been signs of weakening momentum in the economy as firms face higher borrowing costs and the government tries to rein in credit.

Growth of fixed asset investment, much of it government-directed, fell to the slowest pace since 1999 at 7.2% last year. China‘s exports and imports growth slowed in December after surging in the previous month, adding to signs of ebbing economic momentum.

Meanwhile, China‘s bank lending halved in December as the government kept up its campaign to curb financial system risks, but banks still managed to dole out a record amount for the year amid the tighter scrutiny.

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