亚洲企业信心飙升至近七年来最高点
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汤森路透/欧洲工商管理学院的一项调查显示，得益于活跃的消费和全球贸易，10-12月份亚洲企业信心升至近七年来的最高点。 汤森路透/欧洲工商管理学院亚洲企业信心指数代表着94家公司对今后六个月的展望。今年第四季度，该指数从第三季度的69升至78，而该指数的历史最高纪录出现在2011年第一季度。 读数高于50表明公司对今后前景持积极看法。 澳大利亚、中国和韩国企业信心增强推动整个指数上升。印尼和泰国的企业信心也很强，这表明许多亚洲国家都继续受益于不断加快的全球经济增长。 欧洲工商管理学院驻新加坡经济学教授安东尼奥·法塔斯说：“该指数表明全球经济的缓慢增长提高了亚洲企业的信心。” 他指出：“亚洲反映出了全球目前的情况。” 第四季度，澳大利亚企业信心指数从前一季度的69升至92的历史最高点。澳大利亚执政联盟已经摆脱了此前有可能让政坛陷入动荡的双重国籍危机。 消费支出的反弹迹象、中国对澳大利亚金属的需求以及其他行业资本支出的增长对企业信心也有提振作用。 作为亚洲诸多国家和地区的贸易依赖对象，中国的企业信心指数上升到了83，创去年第三季度以来的新高。 中国国家主席习近平今年10月在十九大上提出的市场改革让人们乐观地认为，中国这个世界第二大经济体可以控制房价和信贷的迅猛增长。 韩国企业信心指数从上季度的50升至83，这是2011年第二季度以来的最高点，原因是迄今为止的国际压力延缓了朝鲜试射核导弹的步伐。 印尼企业信心指数从第三季度的100降至92，但仍处于高点。泰国和印度的企业信心双双改善，台湾企业信心则跌至一年多以来的最低点。 资产价格和政治 国际货币基金组织和经合组织已经上调了今年全球经济增长预期，原因是许多主要经济体在贸易、消费开支和投资方面表现强劲。 但这样的前景并非没有风险。本次调查于12月1-15日进行，反馈表明企业最担心的是资产价格突然回落。 美国股市今年连创新高，其他大多数国家和地区的股市也在经济加速增长的预期推动下强劲上扬。 一些分析师已经指出，他们的顾虑是股价可能过高。本次调查中，来自交通运输、医疗保健、能源和金融行业的公司也表示对资产价格回落感到担心。 本次调查表明，频繁出现并购的领域，比如科技、金属、自然资源和医疗保健行业都认为跨境并购受到更严格的监管审查是个风险因素。 许多公司对保护主义感到担心，因为它不仅会影响出口，还将成为海外收购的障碍。 受访公司中，九家企业表示他们最担心政局不稳和地缘政治风险，原因是某些地区的局势可能影响到其他地区，比如英国的脱欧谈判。 泰国酒店餐饮业龙头Minor International PCL投资者关系高级经理Supitcha Fooanant表示：“英国脱欧的影响已经波及英国人的出境旅游需求。” “我们发现在自家酒店入住的英国游客变少了。幸运的是，我们的多元化策略很成功，它让我们保持着韧性，并不断取得出色的业绩。” 表现较差的国家和地区中，台湾企业信心指数从上季度的75降至50，但较小的样本规模可能夸大了指数跌幅。 马来西亚企业信心指数从75降至64，原因是受访者对消费信心有所顾虑。菲律宾企业信心指数从此前的83降至70，日本企业信心指数从75降至70。在新加坡，该指数从79下滑到了64。（财富中文网） 注：每个季度调查的公司可能不同。 译者：Charlie 审稿：夏林 |
Business confidence among Asian companies rose in October-December to the highest in almost seven years due to robust consumption and global trade, a Thomson Reuters/INSEAD (TRI, +0.21%) survey showed. The Thomson Reuters/INSEAD Asian Business Sentiment Index, representing the six-month outlook of 94 firms, rose to 78 for the December quarter from 69 three months before. The index reached its highest since January-March 2011. A reading above 50 indicates a positive outlook. Improvement in sentiment in Australia, China and South Korea drove gains in the overall index. Sentiment in Indonesia and Thailand was also strong, showing that many countries in Asia continue to benefit from accelerating global growth. “The index shows that the slow strengthening that we have seen in the world economy has lifted business sentiment in Asia,” said Antonio Fatas, a Singapore-based economics professor at global business school INSEAD. “Asia is a reflection of what is happening in the world,” he said. The index measuring sentiment in Australia rose to a record high of 92 in October-December from 69 in the previous quarter. The country’s ruling coalition has recovered from a dual-citizenship crisis that threatened to throw policy-making into turmoil. Signs of a rebound in consumer spending, Chinese demand for Australian metals, and growing capital expenditure in other sectors has also underpinned sentiment. China, upon which much of Asia depends for trade, saw its subindex rise to 83 to reach the highest since the third quarter of last year. The market reforms that Chinese President Xi Jinping laid out at the Communist Party Congress in October has fueled optimism that the world’s second-largest economy can manage a surge in house prices and credit growth. South Korea’s subindex rose to 83 from 50 in the previous quarter to reach the highest since the second quarter of 2011, as international pressure has so far slowed the pace of North Korea’s missile tests for its nuclear weapons program. The subindex for Indonesia slipped to 92 in the fourth quarter from 100 in the previous quarter but remained at a high level. Sentiment in Thailand and India improved, while sentiment in Taiwan fell to the lowest level in more than a year. Asset Prices And Politics The International Monetary Fund and the Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development have raised their global growth forecasts for this year due to strong trade, consumer spending, and investment in many major economies. However, the outlook is not without risk. Respondents to the survey, which was conducted Dec. 1-15, showed companies’ biggest concern was a sudden correction in asset prices. U.S. stocks have repeatedly set record highs this year and stock markets in most other countries have rallied strongly due to expectations for faster growth. Some analysts have expressed concerns that stock prices may be overheating. Companies from the transportation, healthcare, energy and finance sectors also expressed concern about a correction in asset prices, the Thomson Reuters/INSEAD survey showed. Industries subject to frequent mergers and acquisitions, such as technology, metals, natural resources and healthcare, identified increased regulatory scrutiny of cross-border transactions as a risk, the survey showed. Many companies have concerns about protectionism, which can hurt not only exports but also become a barrier to making acquisitions overseas. Of companies surveyed, nine respondents identified political instability and geopolitical risks as their biggest concerns, because events on one side of the globe, such as Britain’s negotiations to leave the European Union, can have consequences elsewhere. “The impact of ‘Brexit’ affected British demand for tourism aboard,” said Supitcha Fooanant, senior investor relations manager at Minor International PCL, Thailand’s leading hotel and restaurant operator. “We saw a decline in British tourists in our hotel portfolio. Fortunately, our successful diversification strategy enables us to maintain resiliency and consistently achieve robust results.” On the downside, the sub-index for Taiwan fell to 50 in October-December from 75 in the previous quarter, but the decline may have been exaggerated by a smaller sample size. The index for Malaysia weakened to 64 from 75 as respondents expressed concern about consumer sentiment. Business sentiment for the Philippines fell to 70 from 83 previously, while in Japan sentiment eased to 70 in October-December from 75 in the previous quarter. In Singapore, the sentiment subindex rose to 79 from 64. Note: Companies surveyed can change from quarter to quarter. |
