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未来10年,石油市场将被它彻底扰乱

Kevin Lui 2017年02月20日

随着电动汽车技术的进步、成本的逐渐降低及石油市场的不景气,电动车市场的稳健增长将在10年内扰乱石油市场上亿的供应。

 

关于电动车改变能源行业的议论可能很快就会变为现实,扰乱石油市场上亿的供应。彭博社(Bloomberg)报道,智库碳追踪计划(Carbon Tracker Initiative)和伦敦帝国理工学院(Imperial College London)的研究都显示,到2025年每天的原油需求可能减少多达200万桶。报告显示,长期来看,到2050年每天减少的原油需求可能升至2,500万桶。

彭博社称,原因是电动车市场增长稳健。电动车技术一直在进步,成本逐渐降低,全球利用率也在增加。

据彭博社报道,研究人员表示,到2020年纯电动车的成本可能与传统能源汽车持平,到2050年可能会渗透整个客车市场。

彭博报道中还补充说,2014年以来每天200万桶的原油产量导致石油市场不景气,出现了近三十年来最严重的衰退。研究人员预计,电动车可能给石油市场再来一记重击。(财富中文网)

作者:Kevin Lui

译者:Charlie

The buzz around electric cars changing the energy industry's landscape could soon be moving from hype to reality, disrupting the oil market to the tune of millions in supply.

Research by the think tank Carbon Tracker Initiative and Imperial College London suggests that demand for as much as two million barrels a day of crude oil could vanish by 2025, reports Bloomberg. In the longer run, the quantity of crude oil no longer in demand could rise to 25 million by 2050, the report suggests.

This comes as the electric car market grows steadily, reports Bloomberg. EV makers have continued to make technological improvements and drive down costs, and uptake rates globally have been on the rise.

According to Bloomberg, the researchers are suggesting that all-electric cars are likely to no longer cost more than conventional fossil fuel-burning cars by 2020—and eventually would saturate the market for passenger cars by 2050.

Bloomberg adds that a glut of 2 million barrels a day has been causing the sluggish pace of the oil industry since 2014, bringing about the greatest downturn in a generation. Electric cars could throw off the oil industry by the same proportion, according to researchers.

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