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世界领导者眼中的2017头号威胁

Stephen Gandel 2017年01月18日

如今,世界局势依旧不平静,充满了各种纷争,那么,在本周召开的达沃斯会议上,各国的领导人又对什么感到最担忧呢?

2017年1月15日星期日,瑞士警方经过位于达沃斯的会议中心。一年一度的世界经济论坛(WEF)将在此举办。1月17日-20日,来自世界各地的国家领导人、具有影响力的企业高管、银行家和决策者,将出席第47届达沃斯世界经济论坛(WEF)。

看来世界上最具影响力的领导者,开始日益担心世界上最有权势的领袖。这种担忧甚至超过了气候变化和金融恐慌,比如欧元的崩溃。

据世界经济论坛(World Economic Forum)的一项最新调查显示,大规模杀伤性武器成为全球领导者最担心的问题。而且,这还是在特朗普于推特上表示开展新一轮军备竞赛的可能性之前的调查结果。世界经济论坛进行该项调查已经有12个年头,调查的对象为该组织750位成员,包括CEO、领导人和各领域的专家。该组织将在本周开始的达沃斯年度会议前一晚公布调查结果。

调查的时间为去年9月和10月初。

在调查结果所附的一份报告中,世界经济论坛写道,民族主义的崛起和世界强国之间的合作减少,将增加全球冲突的风险。

大规模杀伤性武器之前也曾进入过调查的榜单,但却从未成为在次年潜在影响力最大的感知风险。去年,大规模杀伤性武器为世界领导人认为的第二大威胁,仅次于气候变化。不过,气候变化依旧是一项重要的威胁。在全球领导者眼中的前五大威胁中,其他四个均与气候变化有关。威胁最大的是极端气象事件,其次分别是用水危机、重大自然灾害和气候变化努力未能发挥作用。

与过去几年的另外一项重要区别在于:对于一些金融震荡对世界经济的影响的担忧不复存在。从2007年至2014年开始调查的前八年,“资产价格崩盘”或金融危机一直是调查中的头号威胁。世界经济论坛的成员更关注经济问题。但在今年的调查中,对于市场的担忧基本消失。不论潜在影响力还是发生概率统计,没有任何一个经济问题,成为2017年世界领导人眼中的前五大威胁。这是自从调查开始以来,经济问题首次没有进入这两个榜单。在2009年和2010年,世界领导人认为可能当时的世界产生最大影响的前五大风险中,经济问题占据了四席。

没有对经济问题的担忧,表明经过金融危机之后的一系列改革,银行和金融市场似乎变得更有弹性。这也可能代表了去年各种世界重大意外事件没有给市场造成震动之后,世界市场的一种自满情绪。

今年,世界领导人似乎更担心的一个问题是,与之前几年相比,越来越多更重视国内问题的政客上台掌权。事实上,今年达沃斯论坛的主题就是负责任的领导力。

世界经济论坛在年度风险报告中这样写道:“随着技术、人口与气候压力加剧制度失败的危险,世界强国之间的竞争和安全努力的崩溃,让国际制度变得更加脆弱,使整体繁荣与生存面临风险。”(财富中文网)

译者:刘进龙/汪皓

Swiss police walk past the Congress Center, the venue for the World Economic Forum (WEF), in Davos, Switzerland, on Sunday, Jan. 15, 2017. World leaders, influential executives, bankers and policy makers attend the 47th annual meeting of the World Economic Forum (WEF) in Davos from Jan. 17-20.

Some of the world's most powerful leaders are growing more concerned, it seems, about the world's most powerful leaders. More so, in fact, than climate change and financial panics, like a collapse of the euro.

Weapons of mass destruction now ranks as the No. 1 concern of global leaders, according to a new survey from the World Economic Forum. And that was before Trump tweeted about the possibility of a new arms race. It's the 12th year that the World Economic Forum has published the survey, which polls 750 of the group's members, including CEOs and leaders and experts in various fields. The organization publishes the survey on the eve of its annual confab in Davos, which kicks off this week.

The survey was conducted in September and early October.

In a report that accompanied the survey results, the World Economic Forum wrote that a rise of nationalism and less cooperation among world powers was raising the risks of global conflicts.

Weapons of mass destruction have come up as a concern before on the survey. But they have never ranked as the biggest perceived risk in terms of potential impact in the immediate year about which the world leaders were surveyed. Last year, WMDs were the second biggest concern of world leaders behind climate change. Nonetheless, climate change remains a major worry. Of the top five worries of global leaders, the other four are related to climate change. Among those, extreme weather conditions was the No. 1 concern, followed by water crisis, major natural disasters, and the failure of climate change efforts to make a difference.

Another big difference than in past years: The lack of concern about some sort of financial shock to the global economy. For the first eight years of the survey, from 2007 to 2014, "asset price collapse" or financial crisis ranked as the No. 1 concern on the survey. The WEF crowd is more focused on economic issues. Nonetheless, in this year's survey, concerns about markets have largely disappeared. Not a single economic issue made it in to either the top 5 concerns of world leaders for 2017 in either the potential biggest impact category or likeliest to happen. It was the first year in the survey's existence that an economic issue didn't show up in either list. In both 2009 and 2010, world leaders put down economic issues as four of their five biggest risks that could have the largest impacts on the world in that year.

The lack of concern about economic issues could reflect that fact that banks and financial markets do seem more resilient following reforms that were made after the financial crisis. It could also signal complacency about world markets following a year in which major world surprises failed to jolt markets.

Instead, this year, it appears world leaders are concerned that the rise to power of a growing number of politicians that seemed to be more focused on domestic issues than in recent years. Indeed, the theme of this years annual conference in Davos is responsible leadership.

"As technological, demographic and climate pressures intensify the danger of systems failure, competition among world powers and fragmentation of security efforts makes the international system more fragile, placing collective prosperity and survival at risk," the WEF wrote in its annual risk report.

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