油价为何将失去上涨动力？

2017年1月5日，印尼雅加达，加油站的加油业务

出于对美国页岩油产量迅速反弹的担忧，新年刚刚进入第二周，石油价格便开始摇摇欲坠。在两个月来的大部分时间，对于欧佩克协议的乐观情绪支撑着油价，但投机商们的乐观情绪已经初步表现出消退的迹象，这也提高了油价上涨将失去动力的可能性。

上周末有报道显示，美国钻井数量再次稳步增长，石油行业油田钻井数量已经连续10周保持增长，因此在周一，西德克萨斯中质油和布伦特原油在当日交易中下跌超过2.5%。除了去年10月的一个星期外，从2016年6月开始，美国石油行业的钻井数量一直在增加，这一不平常的趋势所带来的结果是，美国现在已经新增200多座石油钻井。即便当石油价格稳定在每桶50至55美元左右时，钻井数量依旧在增加。

2017年伊始，同时出现了两个重要的趋势，推动着市场向两个相反的方向发展。欧佩克的协议计划减少市场石油供应，而美国的钻探活动预计将增加新的供应。这两个趋势的速度和量级，最终将决定油价的走势。

乐观的一面是，已经有初步迹象显示，欧佩克成员国将遵守承诺。沙特阿拉伯在上周宣布，1月将石油产量减少486,000桶/天，这也是其在去年11月的协议中承诺削减的产量。这意味着，沙特的石油产量将下降到每天1,005.8万桶，在1月至6月期间，利雅得的平均产量仅需维持到这一水平即可。提前削减产量表明了沙特的诚意，也增加了欧佩克遵守承诺的可能性。

除此之外，科威特驻欧佩克的代表说，卡塔尔、科威特和阿曼也将遵守削减产量的协议。在接受彭博社采访时，科威特的纳维尔·阿尔-费塞亚表示，这些国家已经告知客户它们即将执行削减产量的计划。阿尔-费塞亚称：“在削减产量阶段，可以对油田进行维护。”他表示，科威特的石油产量将从去年12月的289万桶/天，减少至1月底的270万桶/天。

伊拉克位于波斯湾的南部港口在去年12月的石油出口量创历史新高的新闻，曾经引起了市场分析师的关注，但这一数据与伊拉克是否会遵守产量削减协议无关。伊拉克石油部长贾巴尔·阿鲁艾比通过电子邮件对彭博社表示：“平均出口量创纪录，并不影响伊拉克从2017年开始削减产量的决心。伊拉克将致力于实现产油国的共同目标，以控制全球市场的石油供应过剩。”

虽然现在说仍为时尚早，但所有迹象均表明，欧佩克遵守产量削减承诺的决心，比市场分析师预期的更为强烈。这预示着供应过剩将不断缩小，最终实现供不应求，降低库存。换言之，欧佩克将成功给石油价格施加上行压力。

但天平的另一方面，则是美国钻探速度加快，钻井数量持续增加。据美国能源信息署（EIA）每周的调查显示，美国的石油产量从夏季的低谷增加了约300,000桶/天，而在未来几个月，随着钻探活动加快，石油供应还会继续增多。

目前尚无法确定，美国日益提高的供应与欧佩克不断削减的产量，最终将如何抵消。当前的普遍观点是，在2017年上半年，市场状况将不断收紧，但下半年的不确定性大增，不过目前仍然需要拭目以待。

现在可以确定的是，石油投机商大规模做多石油，已经使原油价格面临短期下行风险。据路透社报道，去年12月的最后一周，对冲基金和其他财富管理机构累积的西德克萨斯中质油和布伦特原油净多头头寸已经相当于7.96亿桶，几乎比11月中旬增加了一倍。很显然，欧佩克的协议将刺激对石油价格上涨的投机行为，而这通常意味着原油价格的实际上涨，这并非巧合。

但目前，石油空头头寸非常少，同时已经建立起规模庞大的多头头寸。我们由此可以得出两个结论，这两个结论都将看跌油价： 目前已经没有太多做多的资金，因此降低了油价继续上涨的可能性； 目前价格回落的可能性非常高。事实上，在最近有可用数据的一周，净多头的头寸已经略有减少，进一步证明看涨押注可能已经达到最高峰。现在只需要一些看跌的消息，便会引发价格的下跌趋势。

未来几周，可能突然出现一些次要的令人担忧的油价信号，加剧看空行情。美国能源部（DOE）在1月9日宣布将出售其战略石油储备，计划在2月、3月和4月，出售800万桶。与此同时，据最新数据显示，在利比亚主要出口码头重新开放之后，其石油出口量将迅速增长，石油产量大幅增长至700,000桶/天，其在去年11月的产量为580,000桶/天，而在去年夏天，利比亚产量开始恢复之前的出口量为300,000桶/天。此外，与利比亚一样不参与欧佩克协议的尼日利亚，也计划恢复生产。不过，其国内的跨尼日尔管道（Trans Niger Pipeline）于近期关闭，石油工人工会可能举行罢工，尼日尔河三角洲复仇者（Niger Delta Avengers）又宣布将在今年继续发起攻击，因此，尼日利亚恢复生产的工作可能会面临困难。事实上，在去年12月，由于这些问题的影响，尼日利亚的产量似乎已经开始下降，减少了200,000桶/天，降至145万桶/天。但如果尼日利亚能够克服这些问题，其潜在的生产能力可能随时爆发。

周末，波斯湾的混乱并没有影响石油价格，也表明油价没有太多上涨的空间。一艘美国驱逐舰对伊朗船只进行了三次警告性射击，在过去，这种事件可能会引发原油价格的大幅波动，虽然可能持续时间较短。相反，市场对此事件不屑一顾——在事件发生后的首个交易日，西德克萨斯中质油和布伦特原油价格因为不相关的消息出现了下跌。瑞穗证券美国公司（Mizuho Securities USA Inc.）期货部门总监鲍勃·杨格尔对彭博社表示：“市场现在处于超买的状态，面临着巨大的下行压力。美国军舰在霍尔木兹海峡射击伊朗船只，并未对市场造成影响。如果在几年前，油价肯定会因此上涨一两美元。”（财富中文网）

译者：刘进龙/汪皓

Refueling activities at gas stations in Jakarta, Indonesia on January 5, 2017.

Oil prices faltered at the start of the second week of the year, as fears set in about a rapid rebound in U.S. shale production. For the better part of two months, optimism surrounding the OPEC deal has buoyed oil prices, but bullish sentiment from speculators are showing early signs of abating, raising the possibility that the oil rally is running out of steam.

WTI and Brent sank more than 2.5 percent in intraday trading on Monday, after a report at the end of last week showed another solid build in the U.S. rig count, the tenth consecutive week that the oil industry added rigs back into the field. Aside from a single week in October, the U.S. oil industry has deployed more rigs in every week dating back to June, a remarkable run that has resulted in more than 200 fresh rigs drilling for oil. The gains in the rig count come even as oil prices have held steady in the mid—to low—$50s per barrel.

At the start of 2017, there are two major dynamics at play occurring at the same time, each pushing in opposite directions on the market. The OPEC deal is slated to take oil off the market, while U.S. drilling is expected to add new supply. The pace and magnitude of each trend will ultimately drive oil prices one way or the other.

On the positive side of the ledger, there are early signs that OPEC members are meeting their commitments. Saudi Arabia said last week that it is lowering its production in January by 486,000 barrels per day, a volume that it promised to cut as part of the November deal. That will take output down to 10.058 million barrels per day, a level that Riyadh was only required to meet as an average over the January to June time period. Cutting to that level ahead of time is a sign of good faith from Saudi Arabia, and increases the chances that OPEC will stay true to its promises.

On top of that, Kuwait’s envoy to OPEC said that Qatar, Kuwait and Oman were also complying with the cuts. In an interview with Bloomberg, Kuwait’s Nawal Al-Fezaia said that those countries already told customers that cuts were imminent. “It’s a good time to do maintenance on oil fields during production cuts,” Al-Fezaia said, noting that Kuwait will lower output from 2.89 mb/d in December to 2.7 mb/d by the end of January.

Market analysts paused a bit on news that Iraq’s oil exports from its southern ports on the Persian Gulf hit a record high in December, but the data has no bearing on whether or not Iraq will comply with the agreed upon cuts. “Achieving this record average will not affect Iraq’s decision to cut output from the beginning of 2017,” Oil Minister Jabbar Al-Luaibi told Bloomberg in an emailed statement. “Iraq is committed to achieving producers’ joint goals to control the oil glut in world markets.”

It is still early but all signs point to a stronger commitment from OPEC to adhere to the specifics of the cuts than market analysts might have given them credit for. That bodes well for a narrowing supply surplus—and ultimately a deficit—as well as falling inventories. In other words, OPEC is succeeding in putting upward pressure on prices.

However, the flip side of the equation is faster drilling from the U.S., where rig counts continue to climb. Oil output, according to EIA weekly surveys, is up roughly 300,000 bpd from summer lows, with more supply expected to come online in the months ahead as drilling picks up pace.

It is unclear, at this point, how rising U.S. supply and falling OPEC output will ultimately balance out. For now, the consensus seems to be tightening conditions in the first half of 2017, with much greater uncertainty in the second half, but that remains to be seen.

What is clear is that oil speculators have built up such a large bullish bet on oil that they have opened up crude to near-term downside risk. According to Reuters, hedge funds and other money managers amassed net-long positions in WTI and Brent equivalent to 796 million barrels in the last week of December, which was nearly double the amount from mid-November. The OPEC deal clearly fueled a huge speculative rush in rising oil prices, which, not coincidentally, corresponded with real gains in crude prices.

But at this point, there are very few short positions left in oil, while a massive volume of long bets have built up. That suggests two things, both of which are bearish for oil: there is not a lot of money left to go long, lowering the chances of further prices gains; and the potential for a correction in prices is very high at this point. Indeed, in the most recent week for which data is available, net-long positions declined a bit, raising the possibility that bullish bets have peaked. All it will take is a bit of bearish news to spark a downturn in prices.

There are a few minor worrying signs for oil prices that could crop up as additional bearish forces in the next few weeks. The U.S. DOE announced on January 9 a “notice of sale” from its strategic petroleum reserve, with plans to sell 8 million barrels for delivery over the course of February, March and April. Meanwhile, Libya is seeing rapid gains in oil exports after the reopening of a key export terminal, with output jumping to 700,000 bpd, according to the latest data, up sharply from the 580,000 it produced in November and the 300,000 bpd it exported before it started restoring output last summer. Moreover, Nigeria – which, like Libya, is exempt from the OPEC deal—is intent on restoring production. It may struggle to do that with the recent shuttering of the Trans Niger Pipeline, potential strikes from oil workers unions and the announcement from the Niger Delta Avengers that attacks will resume this year. In fact, production appears to have declined in December, falling 200,000 bpd to 1.45 mb/d, because of some of these issues. But if those problems can be overcome, Nigeria has latent production capacity that could come back online at some point.

And in a sign that there is not a lot of room on the upside, a kerfuffle in the Persian Gulf over the weekend did nothing to affect oil prices. A U.S. Navy destroyer fired three warning shots towards Iranian ships, an incident that in the past would have led to a sharp, even if brief, rally in crude prices. Instead, the markets shrugged off the incident—WTI and Brent sank on the first trading day after the event, on unrelated news. "The market is overbought and under a lot of downward pressure," Bob Yawger, director of the futures division at Mizuho Securities USA Inc., told Bloomberg. "The shots fired at the Iranian boats in the Strait of Hormuz didn’t do anything to the market. A few years ago that would have added a couple dollars to the price."