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2017年将是“零极世界元年”,全球面临十大风险

Madeline Farber 2017年01月10日

2017年可能是二战结束以来政治环境最不稳定的一年,各种风险不容忽视。

一项最新研究认为,从2017年开始,全球将进入“零极世界”,也就是一个没有全球老大的世界。

这项由欧亚集团发布的研究报告,旨在帮助投资者理解政治影响给国外市场带来了哪些风险和机遇。这种“零极世界”理论主要基于以下一系列因素:美国当全球老大的兴趣减弱;美国盟友的实力减弱;中俄宣称要取代美国在国际安全和经济领域的地位;英国脱欧;《泛太平洋伙伴关系协定》(TPP)崩溃;俄罗斯最近在叙利亚取得胜利。

但真正把这种“零极世界”引入决定性阶段的,还是唐纳德·特朗普当选为美国总统。这一事件引发了一场该公司所称的“地缘政治衰退”。欧亚集团认为,2017年将是二战结束以来政治环境最不稳定的一年,对全球市场的影响至少不亚于2008年的全球经济衰退。”

为了进一步理解2017年的全球局势,欧亚集团发布了2017年的政治风险预测报告,逐一列举该公司认为今年最有可能出现的十大风险。

1.特朗普和他的“独立美国”

在竞选期间,以及即将到来的总统任期,特朗普始终围绕一个本质上属于美国的价值观大做文章。那就是“独立。”从“让美国再次伟大”,到“美国第一”哲学,特朗普企图“摆脱多边机构和一系列盟友放置在美国身上的负担,”从而让美国从“全球事务不可或缺的角色”中“独立”出来。

“这并非是孤立主义政策。”欧亚集团写道,“作为全球最强大国家的领导人,特朗普拒绝担任一位相对弱势的总统。他希望让美国实力更直接地为国家利益服务。他是一个坚决的单边主义者。”

2.中国可能加大应对周边形势的力度

欧亚集团指出,东亚地区局势日趋复杂。中国、中国周边及日本、朝鲜等问题,都有可能导致中国采取强硬的手段。

3.德国总理默克尔趋于弱势

最近,一项在国内和欧洲都缺乏支持的移民政策,一连串重量级企业(如大众、德意志银行和汉莎航空)相继爆发的危机,以及民粹主义的兴起,显著蚕食了默克尔的领导力。

“欧洲现在比以往任何时候都更加需要一个强势的默克尔,但是2017年,她可能无法扮演这个角色。”

4.缺乏改革

欧亚集团认为,无论是发达国家还是发展中国家的官员,都会不约而同地避免结构性改革,由此将影响经济增长前景和投资者的新机遇。

“2017年不会出现什么改革步伐。除了少数亮点领域之外,资本将不知道向何处流动。”

5.中东的科技发展

事实证明,中东地区科技水平的发展不仅没有促进经济增长,反而成了一个影响该地区政局稳定的因素。能源、连通性、网络、自动化等技术和急速的技术透明化等因素,都将对该地区的政府、威权体制乃至整个中东格局构成挑战。

“科技是经济增长和效率的推动因素,但它同时也加剧了中东的政治动荡。”

6.央行更加政治化

政客们已经将政治和经济问题归咎在央行身上,但欧亚集团预测称,这种攻击“有可能颠覆央行以提供金融和经济稳定为宗旨的技术官僚角色,”从而给2017年的全球市场带来风险。

“德国财政部长沃尔夫冈朔伊布勒曾指出,低利率减少了欧洲边缘国家改革其不可持续的经济模式的动机。在美国大选期间,特朗普指责美联储支持希拉里。在这两个例子中,央行的明显政治化正在打破长期以来的国内政治文化禁忌。”

7.白宫与硅谷的关系

除彼得·蒂尔之外,加州的大多数科技界领袖都不支持特朗普的政策。特朗普呼吁国家安全,而硅谷提倡自由和隐私。特朗普想在美国创造更多的就业机会,而硅谷正在推动劳动力自动化。不过,对特朗普提出的税制改革和减少政府监管的政策,硅谷想必还是很欢迎的。

欧亚集团指出:“特朗普肯定会给一些非常知名的公司找麻烦,不管他是因为何种原因对这些公司抱有成见。而很多被他盯上的公司也必定会吃亏。但这种行为只是针对某几家公司,并不是一个结构性问题。特朗普跟硅谷的矛盾则完全是另一回事。加州在大选时是希拉里的大票仓,这些科技领袖肯定会跟新总统发生争执的。”

8.土耳其

欧亚集团指出,去年七月那次失败的政变进一步加大了土耳其的政局变数,尤其是在这样一个紧急状态不断的国家。目前,土耳其总统埃尔多安已经“收紧”了对司法部门、官僚机构、媒体和商界的控制,继续尝试着将“事实上的权力扩充”合法化。

“随着对领导人权力的制约越来越少,私人部门将更容易受到政治风波的影响。”

9.朝鲜

朝鲜日益增长的核武力是值得担忧的,因为朝鲜当局已经“大大推进了他们的核武和导弹项目,并且必将进一步推进。”预计2017年美国将加大对朝鲜的制裁力度,并谋求推动朝鲜弃核。但朝鲜的核武力仍有进一步提高的风险。

“朝鲜正在洲际弹道导弹方面持续取得进步,最终可能拥有能够打到美国西海岸的核武器。”

10.南非

欧亚集团预测称,南非总统祖玛将阻止“改革者采取必要步骤恢复该国的经济稳定”。2017年,祖玛与其反对者之间的政治危机也将恶化,而这将使南非经济陷入更大风险,继而损害该地区的稳定。

“南非的政治内斗将有损该国在地区安全上扮演的传统角色。”(财富中文网)

作者:Madeline Farber

译者:朴成奎

With 2017 comes the beginning of a "G-Zero world," or a world with no global leader, according to a new study.

Eurasia Group, which tries to help investors understand the impact of politics on the risks and opportunities in foreign markets, blames a number of factors: the U.S.’s decreasing interest in assuming leadership, weaker U.S. allies, Russia and China asserting themselves as security and economic alternatives to the U.S., Brexit, the collapse of the Trans-Pacific Partnership, and Russia’s recent victory in Syria.

But it was Donald Trump's election that brought this G-Zero world to a head, resulting in what the firm calls a "geopolitical recession." This year, according to the Eurasia Group, "marks the most volatile political risk environment in the postwar period, at least as important to global markets as the economic recession of 2008."

To comprehend what 2017 may bring on a global scale, the group has released its annual forecast of the political risks it says are the most likely to play out over the year:

Donald Trump and his "Independent America"

Trump has surrounded his campaign, and now his forthcoming presidency, on one core American value: Independence, according to Eurasia Group. From "Make America Great Again” to his America first philosophy, Trump plans to make the U.S. "independent" from its responsibility to play "an indispensable role in world affairs" by "shaking off the burdens placed on the U.S, by multilateral institutions and a range of allies.”

"This is not isolationism,” the group writes. “As leader of the world’s most powerful country, Trump rejects the comparative weakness of the presidency, and he wants to more directly project American power in service of U.S. national interests. He’s a resolute unilateralist."

China could overreact

Fear and frustration among China’s party and business elites are at their highest level since Mao Zedong’s time, according to Eurasia Group. Provocations in North Korea, the East China Sea, Japan, Taiwan, Hong Kong, and the South China Sea all have the potential to cause an overreaction from Chinese leaders.

"[President] Xi will be extremely sensitive to external challenges to his country’s interests at a time when all eyes are on his leadership,” the group predicts. “The Chinese president will be more likely than ever to respond forcefully to foreign policy challenges."

Germany's Angela Merkel will be less powerful

A refugee policy that lacks support (both in Germany and in Europe), a series of corporate crises involving some of Germany’s most important companies, (Volkswagen, Deutsche Bank, and Lufthansa), and the rise of populism have all undermined Merkel's leadership as of late.

"Europe has never needed a strong Merkel more,” according to the group. “In 2017, she’ll be unavailable for the role."

No reform

Eurasia Group predicts that political officials, both in developed and emerging economies, will avoid structural reform—thus undermining prospects for growth and new opportunities for investors.

"The reform needle won’t move in 2017. Save for a few bright spots, money won’t know where to flow."

Technology in the Middle East

Technology has proven to be a force of political instability in the Middle East instead of enhancing economic growth. Energy, connectivity, cyber, automation, and forced technological transparency will all challenge many of the region's governments, existing and authoritarian regimes, and Middle Eastern systems.

"Technology, a force for economic growth and efficiency, also exacerbates political instability."

Central banks are becoming political

Politicians have blamed central bankers for political and economic difficulties, but these attacks represent a risk to global markets in 2017 by "threatening to upend central banks’ roles as technocratic institutions that provide financial and economic stability," the group predicts.、

"In Germany, Finance Minister Wolfgang Schaeuble has argued that low interest rates have reduced the incentive for peripheral European states to reform their unsustainable economic models. Trump accused the Federal Reserve of supporting Hillary Clinton during the U.S. presidential election campaign. In each of these cases, overt politicization of central banking is breaking longstanding taboos in domestic political cultures."

The White House vs. Silicon Valley

Most of the technology leaders in California, aside from Peter Thiel, disagree with the President-elect's policies: Trump supports national security, while Silicon Valley promotes freedom and privacy. Trump wants to create more jobs in the U.S., while Silicon Valley is pushing for workplace automation. However, Silicon Valley will welcome Trump’s support for corporate tax reform and more streamlined government regulation.

"Trump will surely go after some high-profile organizations that he, for whatever reason, has a personal gripe with, and many of those companies will take a tumble,” according to the Eurasia Group. “But that’s a problem only for individual firms, not a structural issue. The conflict with Silicon Valley is different. Technology leaders from California, the major state that voted in largest numbers against Trump in the election, have a bone to pick with the new president."

Turkey

July's failed coup has led to even great political uncertainty, especially in a country with an ongoing state of emergency, notes the Eurasia Group. President Erdogan has been "tightening his hold" on the judiciary, bureaucracy, media, and business sector—continually trying to legitimize his "de facto expansion of powers," according to the firm.

"Ever-fewer checks on executive power will leave the private sector vulnerable to political whims."

North Korea

North Korea's growing nuclear power is worrisome, as the country's government has "substantially advanced their nuclear and missile programs and are set to expand them further," the group writes. In 2017, the U.S. will increase sanctions and make a push to rid North Korea of its nuclear weapons, but the risk of nuclear capability will grow.

"[North Korea] is making consistent progress on an intercontinental ballistic missile capability that would allow it to hit the West Coast of the U.S. with a nuclear weapon."

South Africa

President Jacob Zuma will prevent "reformers from taking needed steps to restore the country’s economic stability," the Eurasia Group predicts. The political crisis between Zuma and his opponents will also worsen in 2017—a factor that will put the South African economy at an even greater risk and subsequently damage its regional stability.

"South Africa’s political infighting will undermine the country’s traditional role as a force for regional security."


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