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顶级智库预测,脱欧之后的英国将走向贫穷

财富中文网 2017年01月08日

一家英国顶级智库进行的分析预测,在脱欧之后的十年内,英国将陷入低增长的困境,面临脆弱的公共财政,贫困阶层的收入将越来越少。

公共政策研究所(Institute of Public Policy Research ,IPPR)发布了一则报告《未来的证据:2020年代的英国》(Future Proof: Britain in the 2020s),报告形容英国脱欧是“在未来十年内带来破坏的罪魁祸首”,必将“深刻地改变”这个国家。

报告称:“脱欧的经济影响或将使英国增速下降,投资减少,公共财政状况恶化,给英国经济与生活标准带来严重的后果。”

“肯定需要做出一些令人痛苦的权衡取舍。预计脱欧公投将使经济增速更低,投资率更糟糕,公共财政弱化。”

该研究所还预测,英国的人口结构将发生改变,人口老龄化将会加速。根据经济合作与发展组织和英国国家统计局的数据,以及其他多项研究的结果,报告预测,到2030年,英国65岁以上人口将比2015年增加30%,而85岁以上人口将增加约一倍。

一方面,人口老龄化将给公共机构带来压力,例如国家医疗服务体系,而另一方面,工作人口将保持相对稳定,仅增加不足5%。

此外, 工作的性质预计也将发生变化。随着自动化水平的提高和数字经济的普及,数以百万计的零售和制造业岗位将会消失,收入不平等会进一步加剧。

尽管英国所面临的人口与经济挑战并非个案,但脱离欧盟可能导致新的贸易壁垒,而这或将使英镑进一步贬值,进而增加生活成本。报告称,到2030年,英国家庭平均年收入将比英国留在欧盟时减少1,700英镑,而低收入家庭将受到最大的影响。(财富中文网)

作者:Joseph Hincks

译者:刘进龙/汪皓

The Institute of Public Policy Research (IPPR), which authored the report — Future Proof: Britain in the 2020s — described Brexit as "the firing gun on a decade of disruption" that would “profoundly reshape" the country.

"The economic implications of Brexit are likely to put the country on a lower growth, lower investment trajectory, worsening the public finances, with important consequences for the UK’s economy and living standards," it said.

"Painful trade-offs are almost certain. Growth is expected to be lower, investment rates worse, and the public finances weaker as a result of Brexit.”

Among other findings, the IPPR predicted a changing demographic for the U.K., with the population aging sharply. On the basis of OEDC and Office of National Statistics (ONS) data — and the findings of numerous other researchers — the report forecast that by 2030 the U.K. population would be comprised of 30% more over-65s and around double the amount of over-85s, compared with 2015 figures.

While the aging population is expected to heap pressure onto public institutions such as the National Health Service, the working age population will remain relatively constant, rising by less than 5%.

The nature of work, too, is expected to change. Increased automation and the digital economy will nix millions of retail and manufacturing jobs and income inequalities will become more pronounced.

While the demographic and economic challenges faced by Britain are not unique, leaving the E.U. is likely to entail new trade barriers, which are expected to drive down the value of the currency and increase costs. By 2030, the average British household will have £1,700 per year less than they would have if the country had retained membership of the E.U., the report found. Low-income households, it said, would be hit the hardest.


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