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特朗普税收改革计划值得关注的3个问题

财富中文网 2016年12月27日

各界的商业利益团队越来越相信,他们多年来推动的改革最终将成为现实。但改革的过程不会很轻松。

距离上一次美国对税法进行改革已经过去了30年,现在,美国税法已经陷入了令人难堪的混乱。如今,唐纳德·特朗普即将就任,并且他还面对友好的国会,因此,各界的商业利益团队越来越相信,他们多年来推动的改革最终将成为现实。但改革的过程不会很轻松。虽然共和党控制了宾夕法尼亚大道两端的参议两院,但现在相对于确定税法改革的方向,还有更多问题需要找到答案:下面是一些已知的未知因素。

1. 民主党是否会参与?

共和党可以通过一种预算规则“调和规则”,完全避开民主党,使改革方案以简单多数票在参议院获得通过。但这种做法也会限制改革的范围和持久性。另一方面,如果共和党想要通过常规顺序通过一项议案,必须获得大约八位民主党人的支持,而他们可能为自己的配合提出苛刻的条件。并且共和党领导人已经暗示,他们计划采用迂回战术,避开少数派。

2. 能够多快付诸实施?

历史证明,总统在上任后的半年内效率最高。如果到明年秋天,白宫依旧无法达成一份和解方案,众议院的共和党人将把注意力从棘手的政策制定问题,转移到自己的改选,推动改革的动力将逐步消失。

3. 跨国公司的海外利润会面临怎样的后果?

特朗普曾提议按10%的税率,对公司在海外隐瞒的约2.5万亿美元利润征税,该笔税收或将用于支持基础设施项目。而国会的共和党人似乎更倾向于,把这笔资金用于抵消更低的总体公司税率。双方都希望执行按来源地征税的制度,但对于具体方法却存在分歧。(财富中文网)

作者:Tory Newmyer

译者:刘进龙/汪皓

The U.S. tax code has grown into an ungainly mess in the thirty years since Washington last streamlined it. Now, as Donald Trump prepares to take office facing a friendly Congress, business interests of all stripes are gaining confidence that the overhaul they’ve spent years pushing will finally become a reality. But it won’t be easy. Despite Republican control at both ends of Pennsylvania Avenue, there are for now more questions than answers about the direction a tax code rewrite will take. Here, the known unknowns.

1. Do Democrats get to weigh in?

Republicans can freeze Democrats out of the process entirely by employing a budget rule known as “reconciliation,” which would allow a reform package to clear the Senate with a simple majority. But that gambit could also restrict the overhaul’s scope and permanence. On the other hand, the eight or so Democrats whom Republicans would need to pass a bill through regular order could drive a hard bargain for their cooperation, and Republican leaders are signaling they intended to end-run the minority.

2. How fast can it move?

History suggests presidents are at their most productive in their first half-year in office. If the White House isn’t able to forge a compromise by the time the calendar tips into the fall, House Republicans will turn their focus from tough policymaking to their own reelections, and momentum for an overhaul could fade.

3. What happens to multinationals’ overseas profits?

Trump has proposed taxing the roughly $2.5 trillion that corporations have stashed overseas at 10%, potentially to help fund an infrastructure program. Congressional Republicans appear keener to dedicate those funds toward offsetting lower corporate tax rates overall. Both sides are eager to move to a territorial system but propose different ways of getting there.

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