未来4年会怎么样？多数美国人看法乐观

CNN与民调机构ORC于11月17日至20日做了一次联合调查。调查期间，1000多名受访者回答了认为特朗普能不能当好总统的问题，略超半数的受访者（53%）预计他会做得不错，有可能表现很好。2008年奥巴马总统宣誓就职以前，预期他会干得好的受访者占比接近80%。

竞选期间特朗普一直强调自己是商人，懂经济。在调查中，当被问及对特朗普处理经济事务的能力有无信心时，65%的受访者认为很有信心或有些信心。奥巴马当政前，做出同样回答的受访者占80%。相比特朗普，美国人更相信奥巴马能处理好外交事务、选贤任能，领导美国前进。

特朗普和奥巴马在大选中都是革新派候选人的形象。当被问及是否认为特朗普真能改变美国时，43%的受访者预计他能改善现状。2008年有63%的受访者这么看奥巴马。这次还有21%的受访者预计特朗普会导致形势恶化，当年这么预测奥巴马的人仅有9%。

至于特朗普竞选期间的承诺，受访者相信他能兑现一些——73%的受访者估计他至少可能某种程度上废除或修改奥巴马医改法案。64%的受访者预计他会重新展开北美自由贸易区的谈判，60%的受访者称，他有可能在美国经济面临挑战的领域创造一些收入可观的就业岗位。对于有无信心特朗普能减少腐败、在美国与墨西哥边境修建隔离墙，以及挫败恐怖组织“伊斯兰国”（ISIS），受访者的意见差距较大。

有一点或许能体现美国民众的分歧状况，支持和反对特朗普处理政权交接方式的受访者几乎平分。与之类似，48%的受访者表示，从特朗普自大选日以来的表现来看，对他的信心更加鉴定，43%的受访者认为信心越发微弱。

一些受访者担心的是，他决定将旗下公司特朗普集团交由子女（也是他最亲密的顾问）管理，而不是委托信托机构。59%的受访者认为特朗普在避免利益冲突方面做得不够。

尽管如此，受访者对特朗普的好感仍创下新高，达到创纪录的47%。不过，还是有50%的受访者表示不满。同时，有38%的受访者不满候任的副总统迈克·彭斯，达到彭斯加入特朗普团队以来最高水平。（财富中文网）

译者：Pessy

审校：夏林

That’s according to a new CNN/ORC poll conducted between Nov. 17 and Nov. 20. More than 1,000 people answered whether or not they thought Trump would make a good president, and a slight majority (53%) said they think he’ll do a fairly good or very good job. When people were asked the same question before President Obama was inaugurated in 2008, that number was closer to 80%.

Trump ran his campaign on the basis that, as a businessman, he understands the economy. When survey participants were asked about whether they’re confident in his ability to deal with the economy, 65% said they either had a lot or some confidence. Again, for Obama, that statistic was at 80%. Americans were also more confident in Obama’s ability to handle foreign affairs, appoint the best people to office, and provide real leadership for the country.

Both Trump and Obama ran their campaigns as change candidates. And when asked whether they think Trump will actually change the country, 43% of respondents answered that he would do so for the better. In 2008, 63% said the same of Obama. Meanwhile, 21% think that Trump will change the country for the worse, compared to Obama’s 9%.

As for promises he made during his campaign, survey respondents were only confident that he’d be able to accomplish a few—73% said he’s at least somewhat likely to repeal and replace Obamacare; 64% said the same for renegotiating NAFTA; and 60% said he’s at least somewhat likely to create good-paying jobs in economically challenged areas. Respondents were fairly split when it came to their confidence in his ability to reduce corruption in Washington, build a wall on the border between Mexico and the U.S., and defeat ISIS.

Perhaps reflective of how divided Americans are, nearly the same amount of people approve of the way Trump is handling his transition as those who disapprove. Similarly, while 48% say that his behavior since Election Day has made them more confident in his ability to be president, 43% said the opposite.

One aspect of Trump’s impending presidency that has been concerning for some has been his decision to hand over the Trump Organization to his children (who are also his closest advisers) rather than placing it in a blind trust. Of this decision, 59% of respondents said he isn’t doing enough to eliminate conflicts of interest.

Despite all this, Trump’s favorability is higher than it’s ever been at 47%. Still, 50% of survey respondents said the candidate was unfavorable. Meanwhile, 38% thought Vice President-elect Mike Pence was unfavorable—the highest it’s been since he joined forces with Trump.