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美国中年白人死亡率上升,和外贸有关?

Dominique Rowe 2016年11月29日

一项新研究称,中年美国白人男性死亡人数增多和美中贸易的增长有明显联系。

《华尔街日报》报道,美联储经济学家贾斯汀·皮尔斯和耶鲁大学经济学家皮特·肖特称,在当地工业受到中国竞争影响的县,可以发现“统计数据反映的自杀人数的相对增长……集中在白人男性身上。”

他们的研究灵感来自较早的一项研究,后者表明虽然所有种族的死亡率都在下降,但白人的死亡率正以令人咋舌的速度恶化。

诺贝尔经济学奖得主安格斯·迪顿和普林斯顿大学经济学家安妮·凯斯联合撰写了这项研究报告。研究显示,1994-2014年,美国45-54岁人群的死亡率提高了0.134个百分点。迪顿说:“在当代,只有艾滋病才会造成这样的情况。”

迪顿和凯斯发现,死亡率上升的原因是自杀行为和吸毒过量的空前增长。

肖特接受《华尔街日报》采访时指出:“在那篇报告中,我们注意到从2000年开始出现了一种趋势,那就是美国从中国进口的大幅增长以及美国失去了大量制造业就业机会。”

重型制造业地区受影响最大。不过,即便是和中国的贸易竞争不是很激烈的地区,自杀行为也增加了3.5%,过度用药人数则飙升24%。

外贸影响美国就业成了唐纳德·特朗普选战中的一张主打牌,他承诺把就业机会带回国内,并让美中经济关系回到过去。

《华盛顿邮报》指出,“在中年白人死亡率高的州”,特朗普的多数票优势最大。

在上周通过社交媒体公布的百日执政方案中,特朗普的计划之一是“商讨公平的双边贸易协议,以便将就业机会和各个行业带到美国国内。”他承诺,2017年1月20日入住白宫时,奥巴马留下而且尚未获批的《跨太平洋伙伴关系协定》将最先被抛弃。

特朗普说:“无论是生产钢铁、制造汽车还是治疗疾病,我都希望下一代的生产和创新就出现在美国。”

不过,肖特并不建议停止推动全球贸易自由化。他对《华尔街日报》表示,此举“会伤害到所有人。我们要的是通过贸易提高生产率并降低物价。”

此外,他在建议中强调为权利被损害的劳动者提供更多培训,而且重点要放在如何帮助他们向经济的增长领域转型。

肖特还指出,和中国贸易的增长可能改善人们的生活,因为它可以带来更便宜(因而更多的)各种商品和服务,从医疗保健到具体日常用品都是如此。(财富中文网)

译者:Charlie

审校:詹妮

A “statistically relevant relative increase in suicide… concentrated among white males” is detectable in U.S. counties where local industries were affected by competition from China, said Federal Reserve economist Justin Pierce and Yale economist Peter Schott in the Wall Street Journal.

Their research was inspired by an earlier study that showed that while mortality rates among all ethnic groups were improving, those among whites were worsening at a startling rate.

Between 1999 and 2014, death rates in the 45 to 54 year-old demographic increased by 134 deaths per 100,000 people. “Only H.I.V./AIDS in contemporary times has done anything like this,” said Nobel-laureate Angus Deaton, who co-authored that study with Princeton economist Anne Case.

They discovered that the rise in mortality was due to unprecedented increases in suicide and drug overdoses.

“The thing about that paper that we noticed was that the trend started in 2000, when you see a big jump in U.S. imports from China and a huge loss in manufacturing jobs,” Schott told the Journal.

Areas where there was heavy manufacturing were most affected. But even those areas with merely average levels of trade competition with China saw suicide increases of 3.5% and a 24% leap in the numbers of overdoses for the demographic.

The issue of foreign trade taking U.S. jobs was a major element of Donald Trump’s campaign, which promised to bring back jobs and roll back economic ties with China.

The Washington Post said of voting majorities that Trump was strongest “in states where middle aged white mortality rates were high”

In his first 100 days outline, released on social media last week, one of Donald Trump’s plans was to “negotiate fair bilateral trade deals that bring jobs and industry onto American shores.” He promised that Obama’s legacy Trans Pacific Partnership deal, which has not yet been ratified, will be the first thing to go when he takes over the White House on January 20, 2017.

“Whether it’s producing steel, building cars, or curing disease, I want the next generation of production and innovation to happen right here,” Trump has said.

However, Schott did not recommend ceasing to liberalize global trade, telling the Journal that such a move “hurts everyone. We want the increases in productivity and reductions in prices that trade brings.”

Instead, his recommendations emphasize more training for disenfranchised workers, with a focus on helping them move into growing areas of the economy.

Schott also pointed out that increased trade with China could improve people’s lives by brining cheaper (and therefore increased) access to goods and services across the board, from healthcare to tangible everyday items.

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