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房地产和政府支出助推中国经济回暖,但能否持续仍然存疑

财富中文网 2016年09月18日

专家预计,到2017年,中国经济增长的动力将会逐渐减弱,房地产市场将进入下行周期,汽车行业可能面临产能过剩问题。

中国八月份的工厂产出和零售业增长速度超出预期。房地产市场的繁荣和政府的基础设施消费热潮,支撑了世界第二大经济体的增长。

随着对煤炭、汽车等商品的需求反弹,工业产值达到五个月来最快增速,但分析师警告,制造业投资疲软和私有企业支出不足,将给未来前景蒙上阴影。

德国商业银行的经济学家周浩(音译)表示:“数据的改善显然得益于房地产市场。这是不可持续的。”

他提到了对中国臃肿低效的国有企业期待已久的全面改革。他表示:“现在是中国进行结构性改革,特别是进行国有企业改革,提振经济信心的理想时机。”

八月份经济形势的好转虽然幅度不大,但也表明中国第三季度的增长超出了几个月前的预期,并且虽然私人投资急剧下跌,导致经济更加依赖政府开支,但八月份中国可能还是实现了政府制定的2016年6.5% - 7%的增长目标。

周二公布的数据显示,八月份,中国的工业产值年比增长了6.3%。为保证本月早些时候召开的G20全球领导人峰会期间的蓝天,杭州许多工厂被迫关闭,因此分析师预测,中国的工业产值增幅仅有6.1%。

尤其明显的是,中国的钢铁行业经过产能削减和控制产量之后提高了价格和利润,因此开始复苏,而基础设施建设热潮和房地产繁荣,也刺激了对钢筋、混凝土等建筑材料的需求。

八月份,中国粗钢产量年比增长3%,连续六个月保持增长。中国规模最大的上市钢企宝山钢铁股份有限公司(Baoshan Iron & Steel)(简称“宝钢”)在周二宣布,提高十月份钢材价格,这是今年到目前为止该公司第八次提价。

零售销售也轻松超出预期,零售销售额增长速度从前一个月的10.2%增长到了10.6%。分析师预测的零售销售额增幅为10.3%。

今年,中国的汽车销售强劲,在八月份,由于消费者纷纷抢在购置税优惠政策到期之前购车,因此汽车销售额创下3年半来的新高。

上周公布的贸易数据显示,进口总额在近两年内首次出现增长,出口下降也有所缓和。

大规模的政府支出突出了经济的不平衡

今年前八个月,固定资产投资增幅始终保持在8.1%,略高于预期。

当然,投资增长速度依旧是1999年12月以来的最低水平,而且有细节显示,公共和私人支出日益严重的不平衡,引发了对中国长期增长前景的担忧。

位于北京的经纪商中国国际金融股份有限公司(China International Capital Corporation)在一份报告中表示,虽然总体投资数据稳健,但在八月份,作为未来活动关键指标的新开工项目数据却有所疲软。

今年前八个月,国有企业投资大幅增长21.4%,这进一步表明,中国政府日益依赖政府支出来拉动经济增长。中国的财政支出增加了12.7%。

虽然为了抑制房价暴涨,越来越多的城市采取了住房限购政策,这引发了长达近一年的房地产繁荣可能迎来拐点的担忧,但房地产依旧是中国经济的亮点之一。

据路透社的计算数据显示,八月份,中国房地产投资年比增长了6.2%,相比之下,七月份仅有1.4%,而按建筑面积计算的销售额增长了25.5%。

凯投宏观(Capital Economics)的经济学家朱利安·埃文斯-普理查德在报告中写道:“房地产销售继续飞速增长。但考虑到基本面因素表明中国的房地产需求增长率仅有较低的个位数,因此我们怀疑这种飞速增长的趋势还能持续多久。”

与房地产市场的火热形成鲜明对比的是,今年截至八月份,制造业部门的固定资产投资仅增长了2.8%。

私人投资降温是警告信号

今年前八个月,私人投资增幅仅有2.1%,与前七个月的增幅相同,依旧为历史最低。

虽然私人企业的月度支出增长了2.3%,止住了连续两个月的下滑势头,但这依旧是决策者们必须关注的一个关键问题,因为他们曾经承诺要改善更高效的私有经济部门的经营环境。

但在需求疲软且无法从强劲的房地产和大宗商品中获益的私有部门,可能很难得到政府的更多支持。

杭州MeiSai制衣有限责任公司(Hangzhou Meisai Clothing Co., Ltd.)的总经理万薇薇(音译)表示:“公司很困难。总体经济形势不好,许多行业面临产能过剩问题,这些问题的影响波及到了所有行业。”

她表示,过去几年,她公司的利润率从20 - 30%,被压缩到了约10%,她所在地区的许多公司都倒闭了。

分析师认为,随着之前的政策扶持带来的效果消退,以及面对债务增长和房地产泡沫的加剧,中国政府与央行可能会推迟进一步宽松政策,因此中国可能会迎来另一轮经济放缓。

经济学人智库(Economist Intelligence Unit)的亚洲经济学家汤姆·拉弗蒂在报告中表示:“我们预计,到2017年,中国经济增长的动力将会逐渐减弱,房地产市场将进入下行周期,汽车行业可能面临产能过剩问题。”(财富中文网)

译者:刘进龙/汪皓

China‘s factory output and retail sales grew faster than expected in August as a strong housing market and a government infrastructure spending spree underpinned growth in the world’s second-largest economy.

Industrial output grew the fastest in five months as demand for products from coal to cars rebounded, though analysts warned the outlook is clouded by weakness in manufacturing investment and a lack of spending by private firms.

“It is very clear that the data is improving because of the property market. This is not sustainable,” Commerzbank economist Zhou Hao said.

“It is a good time for China to deliver on structural reform, especially on the SOE side, to restore confidence in the economy,” he said, referring to a long-promised overhaul of the country’s often bloated and inefficient state-owned enterprises.

Improvements in August, while modest, suggestChina‘s third-quarter growth is holding up better than expected just a few months ago and likely remains within the government’s 2016 target range of 6.5-7%, despite the alarming drop in private investment which has left the economy more dependant on government spending.

Industrial output rose 6.3% in August from a year earlier, data showed on Tuesday. Analysts had expected it to pick up only slightly to 6.1% as many plants were closed around Hangzhou to guarantee blue skies for a G20 summit of world leaders earlier this month.

China‘s steel industry, in particular, has perked up as capacity cuts and production curbs boost prices and profits, while the infrastructure spree and housing boom have spurred demand for building materials from iron beams to cement.

China‘s crude steel output rose 3% in August from a year ago, the sixth straight monthly rise. Its biggest listed steelmaker, Baoshan Iron & Steel (Baosteel) said on Tuesday it has raised its prices for October, its eighth price hike so far this year.

Retail sales also handily beat expectations, with growth accelerating to 10.6% from 10.2% the previous month. Analysts had forecast an increase of 10.3%.

Car sales have been strong in China this year, hitting a 3-1/2 year high in August as buyers rushed to get new wheels before a tax cut expires at year-end.

Trade data last week showed imports rose for the first time in nearly two years, while export declines eased.

STRONG GOVERNMENT SPENDING HIGHLIGHTS IMBALANCES

Fixed asset investment was unchanged at 8.1% over the first eight months of the year, marginally better than expected.

Still, the rate of growth in investment remained the slowest since December 1999, and details showed a growing imbalance between public and private spending that raised questions aboutChina‘s longer-term growth prospects.

Beijing-based broker China International Capital Corporation said in a note that while the headline investment figures were solid, data on new project starts, a leading indicator for future activity, softened in August.

Highlighting Beijing’s increasing reliance on government spending to drive the economy, investment by state firms surged 21.4% in the first eight months of the year. China‘s fiscal spending rose 12.7%.

Property also remained a bright spot, despite fears that a near one-year-long housing boom may be peaking as more cities impose curbs on home purchases to rein in sharp price rises.

Property investment rose 6.2% in August on-year, according to Reuters calculations, compared with 1.4% in July, while sales by floor space grew 25.5%.

“Property sales continue to expand at a rapid pace. We are skeptical how long this can last given that fundamental factors point to housing demand growth in the low single digits,” Capital Economics economist Julian Evans-Pritchard wrote in a note.

The strength in the property market compared with only 2.8% growth in fixed asset investment in the manufacturing sector for the year through August.

COOLING PRIVATE INVESTMENT A WORRY

Private investment grew just 2.1% in the first eight months of the year, the same pace as in January-July and remaining at record lows.

While private firms boosted spending 2.3% on a monthly basis, reversing a two-month slide, the issue remains a key concern among policymakers, who have pledged to improve operating conditions for the more efficient private sector.

But government support may only go so far in sectors with weak demand that do not benefit from strong property and commodities markets.

“Business is tough. The economy overall is bad and many industries are facing overcapacity issues, which filters through and impacts all industries. Consumers’ spending power is falling and competition is intense,” says Vivi Wan, general manager at apparel manufacturer Hangzhou Meisai Clothing Co., Ltd.

Wan says her company’s margins have been compressed from 20-30% to around 10% over the last few years, and that many firms in the area have shut down.

Analysts say China may face a renewed slowdown as the impact of previous policy support fades and as the government and central bank hold off on further easing over concerns of rising debt and housing bubbles.

“We think that momentum behind the economy will fade in 2017, when the property market will be on a downward cycle and the automotive sector is likely to be facing overcapacity issues,” Tom Rafferty, Asia Economist at the Economist Intelligence Unit, said in a note.

中国八月份的工厂产出和零售业增长速度超出预期。房地产市场的繁荣和政府的基础设施消费热潮,支撑了世界第二大经济体的增长。

随着对煤炭、汽车等商品的需求反弹,工业产值达到五个月来最快增速,但分析师警告,制造业投资疲软和私有企业支出不足,将给未来前景蒙上阴影。

德国商业银行的经济学家周浩(音译)表示:“数据的改善显然得益于房地产市场。这是不可持续的。”

他提到了对中国臃肿低效的国有企业期待已久的全面改革。他表示:“现在是中国进行结构性改革,特别是进行国有企业改革,提振经济信心的理想时机。”

八月份经济形势的好转虽然幅度不大,但也表明中国第三季度的增长超出了几个月前的预期,并且虽然私人投资急剧下跌,导致经济更加依赖政府开支,但八月份中国可能还是实现了政府制定的2016年6.5% - 7%的增长目标。

周二公布的数据显示,八月份,中国的工业产值年比增长了6.3%。为保证本月早些时候召开的G20全球领导人峰会期间的蓝天,杭州许多工厂被迫关闭,因此分析师预测,中国的工业产值增幅仅有6.1%。

尤其明显的是,中国的钢铁行业经过产能削减和控制产量之后提高了价格和利润,因此开始复苏,而基础设施建设热潮和房地产繁荣,也刺激了对钢筋、混凝土等建筑材料的需求。

八月份,中国粗钢产量年比增长3%,连续六个月保持增长。中国规模最大的上市钢企宝山钢铁股份有限公司(Baoshan Iron & Steel)(简称“宝钢”)在周二宣布,提高十月份钢材价格,这是今年到目前为止该公司第八次提价。

零售销售也轻松超出预期,零售销售额增长速度从前一个月的10.2%增长到了10.6%。分析师预测的零售销售额增幅为10.3%。

今年,中国的汽车销售强劲,在八月份,由于消费者纷纷抢在购置税优惠政策到期之前购车,因此汽车销售额创下3年半来的新高。

上周公布的贸易数据显示,进口总额在近两年内首次出现增长,出口下降也有所缓和。

大规模的政府支出突出了经济的不平衡

今年前八个月,固定资产投资增幅始终保持在8.1%,略高于预期。

当然,投资增长速度依旧是1999年12月以来的最低水平,而且有细节显示,公共和私人支出日益严重的不平衡,引发了对中国长期增长前景的担忧。

位于北京的经纪商中国国际金融股份有限公司(China International Capital Corporation)在一份报告中表示,虽然总体投资数据稳健,但在八月份,作为未来活动关键指标的新开工项目数据却有所疲软。

今年前八个月,国有企业投资大幅增长21.4%,这进一步表明,中国政府日益依赖政府支出来拉动经济增长。中国的财政支出增加了12.7%。

虽然为了抑制房价暴涨,越来越多的城市采取了住房限购政策,这引发了长达近一年的房地产繁荣可能迎来拐点的担忧,但房地产依旧是中国经济的亮点之一。

据路透社的计算数据显示,八月份,中国房地产投资年比增长了6.2%,相比之下,七月份仅有1.4%,而按建筑面积计算的销售额增长了25.5%。

凯投宏观(Capital Economics)的经济学家朱利安·埃文斯-普理查德在报告中写道:“房地产销售继续飞速增长。但考虑到基本面因素表明中国的房地产需求增长率仅有较低的个位数,因此我们怀疑这种飞速增长的趋势还能持续多久。”

与房地产市场的火热形成鲜明对比的是,今年截至八月份,制造业部门的固定资产投资仅增长了2.8%。

私人投资降温是警告信号

今年前八个月,私人投资增幅仅有2.1%,与前七个月的增幅相同,依旧为历史最低。

虽然私人企业的月度支出增长了2.3%,止住了连续两个月的下滑势头,但这依旧是决策者们必须关注的一个关键问题,因为他们曾经承诺要改善更高效的私有经济部门的经营环境。

但在需求疲软且无法从强劲的房地产和大宗商品中获益的私有部门,可能很难得到政府的更多支持。

杭州MeiSai制衣有限责任公司(Hangzhou Meisai Clothing Co., Ltd.)的总经理万薇薇(音译)表示:“公司很困难。总体经济形势不好,许多行业面临产能过剩问题,这些问题的影响波及到了所有行业。”

她表示,过去几年,她公司的利润率从20 - 30%,被压缩到了约10%,她所在地区的许多公司都倒闭了。

分析师认为,随着之前的政策扶持带来的效果消退,以及面对债务增长和房地产泡沫的加剧,中国政府与央行可能会推迟进一步宽松政策,因此中国可能会迎来另一轮经济放缓。

经济学人智库(Economist Intelligence Unit)的亚洲经济学家汤姆·拉弗蒂在报告中表示:“我们预计,到2017年,中国经济增长的动力将会逐渐减弱,房地产市场将进入下行周期,汽车行业可能面临产能过剩问题。”(财富中文网)

译者:刘进龙/汪皓

China‘s factory output and retail sales grew faster than expected in August as a strong housing market and a government infrastructure spending spree underpinned growth in the world’s second-largest economy.

Industrial output grew the fastest in five months as demand for products from coal to cars rebounded, though analysts warned the outlook is clouded by weakness in manufacturing investment and a lack of spending by private firms.

“It is very clear that the data is improving because of the property market. This is not sustainable,” Commerzbank economist Zhou Hao said.

“It is a good time for China to deliver on structural reform, especially on the SOE side, to restore confidence in the economy,” he said, referring to a long-promised overhaul of the country’s often bloated and inefficient state-owned enterprises.

Improvements in August, while modest, suggestChina‘s third-quarter growth is holding up better than expected just a few months ago and likely remains within the government’s 2016 target range of 6.5-7%, despite the alarming drop in private investment which has left the economy more dependant on government spending.

Industrial output rose 6.3% in August from a year earlier, data showed on Tuesday. Analysts had expected it to pick up only slightly to 6.1% as many plants were closed around Hangzhou to guarantee blue skies for a G20 summit of world leaders earlier this month.

China‘s steel industry, in particular, has perked up as capacity cuts and production curbs boost prices and profits, while the infrastructure spree and housing boom have spurred demand for building materials from iron beams to cement.

China‘s crude steel output rose 3% in August from a year ago, the sixth straight monthly rise. Its biggest listed steelmaker, Baoshan Iron & Steel (Baosteel) said on Tuesday it has raised its prices for October, its eighth price hike so far this year.

Retail sales also handily beat expectations, with growth accelerating to 10.6% from 10.2% the previous month. Analysts had forecast an increase of 10.3%.

Car sales have been strong in China this year, hitting a 3-1/2 year high in August as buyers rushed to get new wheels before a tax cut expires at year-end.

Trade data last week showed imports rose for the first time in nearly two years, while export declines eased.

STRONG GOVERNMENT SPENDING HIGHLIGHTS IMBALANCES

Fixed asset investment was unchanged at 8.1% over the first eight months of the year, marginally better than expected.

Still, the rate of growth in investment remained the slowest since December 1999, and details showed a growing imbalance between public and private spending that raised questions aboutChina‘s longer-term growth prospects.

Beijing-based broker China International Capital Corporation said in a note that while the headline investment figures were solid, data on new project starts, a leading indicator for future activity, softened in August.

Highlighting Beijing’s increasing reliance on government spending to drive the economy, investment by state firms surged 21.4% in the first eight months of the year. China‘s fiscal spending rose 12.7%.

Property also remained a bright spot, despite fears that a near one-year-long housing boom may be peaking as more cities impose curbs on home purchases to rein in sharp price rises.

Property investment rose 6.2% in August on-year, according to Reuters calculations, compared with 1.4% in July, while sales by floor space grew 25.5%.

“Property sales continue to expand at a rapid pace. We are skeptical how long this can last given that fundamental factors point to housing demand growth in the low single digits,” Capital Economics economist Julian Evans-Pritchard wrote in a note.

The strength in the property market compared with only 2.8% growth in fixed asset investment in the manufacturing sector for the year through August.

COOLING PRIVATE INVESTMENT A WORRY

Private investment grew just 2.1% in the first eight months of the year, the same pace as in January-July and remaining at record lows.

While private firms boosted spending 2.3% on a monthly basis, reversing a two-month slide, the issue remains a key concern among policymakers, who have pledged to improve operating conditions for the more efficient private sector.

But government support may only go so far in sectors with weak demand that do not benefit from strong property and commodities markets.

“Business is tough. The economy overall is bad and many industries are facing overcapacity issues, which filters through and impacts all industries. Consumers’ spending power is falling and competition is intense,” says Vivi Wan, general manager at apparel manufacturer Hangzhou Meisai Clothing Co., Ltd.

Wan says her company’s margins have been compressed from 20-30% to around 10% over the last few years, and that many firms in the area have shut down.

Analysts say China may face a renewed slowdown as the impact of previous policy support fades and as the government and central bank hold off on further easing over concerns of rising debt and housing bubbles.

“We think that momentum behind the economy will fade in 2017, when the property market will be on a downward cycle and the automotive sector is likely to be facing overcapacity issues,” Tom Rafferty, Asia Economist at the Economist Intelligence Unit, said in a note.

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