中国的最新贸易数据传递复杂信号，进口量激增或预示经济回暖

今年8月，中国的出口额（以美元计价）较上年同期下跌了将近3个百分点，就连上月从中国各个工厂大量出货的iPhone 7也没能阻住出口贸易额的下跌。与此同时，中国的进口贸易额则略有上升，涨幅为1.5%。

不过在今天发布的中国进出口贸易数据中还是显现出了一些积极的迹象。2015年8月，中国曾一夜之间将人民币贬值2%，用贬值的人民币计算，当时的贸易数据自然要好看得多。如果现在我们也用人民币计价的话，那么今年8月中国的出口贸易额实际增长了将近6%，出口额更是跃升了11%，这也是中国进出口贸易额连续21个月收紧以来的首次强势回弹，且进口额和出口额都显著超过了此前分析师的预期。

人民币贬值显然对出口贸易起到了一定的推动作用，因为这样一来，中国商品用进口国货币计价时就会显得更便宜。不过由于各大发达国家普遍增长缓慢，人民币的贬值效应也在一定程度上受到了削弱。汇丰银行的经济学家朱丽亚·王和李晶（音译）今日在香港指出：“影响贸易的根本性问题，如商业投资和全球增长疲软等，可能仍将继续成为抑制外需的重要制约。”

从进口数据来看，一个最积极的迹象就是进口量的增长。在此前几个月，中国的进口贸易只是稍有好转——这主要也是为了给中国国内经济正在日益恢复的说法背书。而且这种好转也只是进口价值的回升，而不是进口量的回升——今年以来，由于国际油价和其它大宗商品价格上涨，迫使中国不得不花更多的钱去购买同样数量的商品。

但八月以来，中国的进口商品数量也出现了显著上升，这进一步给看涨中国经济前景的观点提供了支持，同时它也表明了中国的消费需求可能确实出现了上涨。这种趋势从最近的一系列工业和消费经济调查中也可看出。（财富中文网）

译者：朴成奎

Even Chinese factories cranking out new iPhone 7s couldn’t save the country’s exports from sputtering in August, when they fell almost 3% year over year when priced in U.S. dollars. Imports edged up slightly, rising by 1.5%.

But there was more positive news in today’s trade release than those figures indicate.

China devalued its currency overnight by 2% in August 2015, and when priced in the country’s cheapening yuan, the trade figures look a lot better. In yuan terms, August exports rose almost 6% and imports jumped 11%, after contracting for 21 consecutive months. Both export and import data also blew past analyst expectations.

It’s becoming clear that the cheaper yuan has helped exporters sell more of their stuff abroad, where Chinese goods have become less expensive when priced in local currencies. Still, this currency effect has been dampened by slow growth across developed countries. “The fundamental issues that weigh on trade, in terms of poor business investment and global growth, will likely continue be a drag on external demand,” HSBC economists Julia Wang and Jing Li wrote today in Hong Kong.

In terms of import data, one of the most positive takeaways is that import volumes rose.

In previous months, the slight improvement in imports—used to support the story of China’s recovering domestic economy—came from a rise in the the value of imports, not from growing volume. Oil and other commodity prices have risen this year, forcing China to spend more money to import the same amounts.

But in August, a sharp rise in import volumes supports the the idea that a brighter outlook for China’s economy and consumers might be for real. That outlook has shown up in recent surveys of industrial and consumer economies.