脱欧公投前英国经济的“最后狂欢”

无论接下来将要出现怎样的糟糕局面，今年第二季度英国经济还是来了一场“最后的狂欢”。4-6月份英国GDP增长了0.6%，远高于经济学家的预期，也超过了上季度0.4%的升幅。

第二季度数据中，工业产出增长了2.1%，这是1999年以来的最大季度涨幅，增长主要受制药行业推动。随着更多具体数据出炉，以上数据很可能会被调整。

然而，在脱欧派开始欢庆之前，应该指出的一点是，制造业仅占英国经济的15%，占英国GDP四分之三以上的服务业确实放慢了增长脚步，第二季度升幅从上季度的0.6%降至0.5%。

这份官方数据公布前一周，就业报告刚刚发布，后者表明英国失业人数创8年新低，就业率则达到45年以来的最高点。对于6月23日的脱欧公投，外界的解读是英国民众对于被全球化力量“甩在身后”感到绝望，但这样的说法似乎与以上数据向左。实际上，2008年爆发金融危机以来，英国经济的增长速度一直高于欧洲的另外三个G7成员国。

现在英国经济将走向何处呢？

新任财政大臣菲利普·哈蒙德表示，这些数据证明“英国将以强劲的经济表现开启谈判”。

不过，就业和GDP实际上是历史数据，而且有充足理由认为上图中那条走势良好的上升线很快就会陡然转而下行。同样在上周三公布的英国工商业联合会月度经销商调查显示，7月份商品销量出现了2012年1月以来的最大跌幅，订单也急剧减少，预示着8月份销量将进一步滑坡。

其他较具前瞻性的指标以及同步指标同样下行。金融信息服务商Markit公布的7月份服务业采购经理人指数（PMI）从6月份的52.3降至47.4，这表明产出下降的速度达到了2009年以来的最高点；建筑业PMI的走势也是如此，从6月份的51.2降至46.0，原因是不明朗的前景造成大宗投资降温。英国银行家协会的数据显示，6月份对公司放贷出现今年初以来的首次滑坡，抵押贷款核准数量也降至15个月来的最低点。

但在公司层面，迄今为止的英国公司业绩远远算不上一边倒的低迷。葛兰素史克上周三表示，将在英国新投资2.75亿英镑（3.60亿美元），以提高三家工厂的产量。建筑商Taylor Wimpey Plc称，公投以来的经营环境一直“符合正常的季节性模式”。

该公司在报告中指出：“虽然公投后平均撤销率一度小幅上升，但和长期历史正常水平相比仍较低，而且现在已经回落至近期的低点。”

富时250指数的覆盖范围比富时100指数广，而且更集中于英国国内。目前该指数已经收复脱欧公投以来的全部失地。

股市气氛乐观有两大原因。首先，英国央行和财政部都已暗示，将通过放松政策来吸收脱欧公投对信心的冲击（英国央行鹰派首脑人物马丁·威尔上周发表讲话时调整了自己的观点，央行则有可能在8月份采取行动）。同时，英镑贬值让人们猜测打算抄底的外国人将收购英国公司（比如软银斥资320亿美元收购芯片制造商ARM控股）。

不过，另一个因素可能也起了作用。脱欧公投引发的短暂混乱过后，英国政界人士的表现有了改善，这让人们看到了希望，进而认为脱欧事宜将得到妥善处理，并会尽量减少公司受到的影响。新首相特蕾莎·梅和欧洲领导人的首轮会面产生了一些积极反响，其中包括在一些棘手事务上得到了保证，比如将以建设性和谨慎的方式处理与爱尔兰以及法国的边境通行问题。德国总理安吉拉·默克尔也让人们松了一口气，因为她拒绝敦促英国开启正式脱欧谈判。

换句话说，自6月23日到目前为止，英国还没有出现媒体大肆渲染的灾难性场面。一切都刚刚开始，而且仍有可能采取乐观的态度，如果大家从一个足够尖锐的角度来看，情况至少是这样。 （财富中文网）

译者：Charlie

Whatever the chaos it’s heading into now, the U.K. economy had a “last hurrah” in the second quarter, growing 0.6% in the three months to June—well above economists’ forecasts, and up from 0.4% in the previous quarter.

The figure, which is likely to be revised as more hard data come in, showed that industrial output put in its strongest quarterly performance since 1999, a 2.1% rise driven mainly by the pharmaceutical industry.

But before Brexiteers get carried away on a wave of enthusiasm, it’s worth pointing out that manufacturing is only 15% of the economy. Services, which account for over three-quarters of gross domestic product, did indeed grow at a slower rate, expanding only 0.5% following 0.6% in the three months to March.

The official data follow hard on the heels of last week’s labor report, which showed joblessness at an eight-year low and the highest-ever employment rate in the U.K. in 45 years of measuring the labor force. Those figures appear to clash with the narrative that the vote to leave the European Union on June 23rd came from a population despairing at being “left behind” by the forces of globalization. The U.K. has actually grown more than any of the other three European G7 members since the financial crisis struck in 2008.

Which way now for U.K. GDP?

Philip Hammond, the new chancellor of the exchequer (the equivalent position to treasury secretary), said the figures were proof that “we enter our negotiations from a position of economic strength.”

But both employment and GDP data are essentially historical, and there is plenty of reason to think that the nicely upward-sloping line in the chart above is about to take a sharp turn downwards in the near future. A monthly survey of the distributor sector by the Confederation of British Industry, which was also released Wednesday, showed that sales volumes fell faster in July than at any time since January 2012, while a sharp drop in orders pointed to further declines in August.

Other more forward-looking or coincident indicators are also heading south. Markit’s services Purchasing Managers’ Index fell to 47.4 from 52.3 in June, suggesting that output is contracting faster than at any time since 2009. Markit’s construction PMI went the same way, falling from 51.2 in June to 46.0 this month, as uncertainty about the outlook cast a chill over big-ticket investments. Lending to businesses fell for the first time this year in June, according to the British Bankers’ Association, while mortgage approvals fell to a 15-month low.

And yet at a company level, the noises coming out of U.K. Plc during the current earnings season have been far from unanimously negative. GlaxoSmithKline  ask  said Wednesday it will invest an extra 275 million pounds ($360 million) in the U.K. to increase production at three different sites. Homebuilder Taylor Wimpey Plc  TWODY 2.42%  said that business conditions since the referendum had been “in line with normal seasonal patterns.”

“Whilst we saw a small increase in the average cancellation rate immediately following the referendum, this remained low compared to long term historic norms and is now back in line with recent low levels,” the company said in its report.

The FTSE-250, a broader and more domestically-focused index than the benchmark FTSE-100, has now made good all its losses since the Brexit vote.

Two factors go a long way to explaining the stock market’s optimism: first, both the Bank of England and the Treasury have signaled that they will loosen policy to help absorb the shock to confidence from the Brexit vote (the BoE move is likely in August after leading hawk Martin Weale changed his call in a speech last week), while the drop in sterling has prompted speculation that U.K. companies will be taken over by bargain-hunting foreigners (such as Softbank’s $32 billion deal for chipmaker ARM Holdings Plc).

But another factor may also be at work. After a chaotic immediate aftermath to the Brexit vote, Britain’s politicians have raised their game, subsequently raising hopes that the separation process will be managed responsibly and in such a way as to minimize disruption to business. New Prime Minister Theresa May’s first round of meetings with her European peers has produced some positive noises, including guarantees that thorny issues such as border controls with Ireland and France will be managed constructively and sensitively. Germany’s Angela Merkel was also conciliatory, refusing to join calls for the U.K. to get a move on with triggering formal separation talks.

In other words, the U.K. has so far avoided living up to the apocalyptic rhetoric that flooded the airwaves since June 23. It’s early days, but it is still possible to view the glass as half full, at least if you look at it from a sharp enough angle.