摩根士丹利：智能手机繁荣期结束，电动车比可穿戴更靠谱

为智能手机提供零部件的供应商们，正在厉兵秣马，为下一个大产品做准备。这个产品并非虚拟现实设备，而是电动汽车和自动驾驶技术。

摩根士丹利最新研究做出上述判断。其分析师凯蒂•休伯蒂在一份致客户的报告中指出，亚洲的电子器件供应商看到了新的未来，但它并不是3D虚拟现实头戴设备——至少目前不是。

休伯蒂是华尔街最著名的中国观察家之一。对于中国日益扩大的中产阶级对智能手机等高端电子设备市场的巨大影响力，她比其他人了解得更为深刻。

“零部件供应商正在寻找下一个增长引擎。他们将目标对准了汽车行业，正在积极接触现有的品牌和潜在的新加入者。”休伯蒂写道，“供应商们认为，他们在智能手机领域的专业技术，比如摄像机、传感器、电池和显示器等，蕴藏着很多机遇。随着汽车行业逐渐从变速器驱动转向电动汽车，以及最终的自动驾驶技术，供应链正在发生变化。我们从中看到了包括谷歌和苹果在内的技术供应商们，大有主导汽车行业的机会。零部件供应商们认为，头戴显示器这类新型可穿戴设备领域的前景，比汽车行业的机会更加遥远。”

休伯蒂认为，智能手机市场的繁荣期已经结束，其增长已达到顶峰。亚洲零部件供应商预计，苹果公司的表现将好于竞争对手。休伯蒂预计，本季度的iPhone手机出货量将增长7%，相比之下，2015财年的iPhone手机出货量同比增长了37%。但中日韩的电子零部件制造商知道，他们不能永远依靠苹果过日子。

如果将未来的汽车想象成带轮子的智能手机，你便会明白零部件供应商将向什么方向发展。（财富中文网）

译者：刘进龙/汪皓

审校：任文科

Companies that got rich making smartphone parts are tooling up for the next big thing.

In a note to clients Monday, Morgan Stanley’s Katy Huberty reports that electronic parts suppliers in Asia have seen the future and it’s not 3D virtual reality headgear—at least not for now.

Huberty is one of Wall Street’s better China watchers. She saw more clearly than most the massive impact that China’s exploding middle class would have on the market for high-end electronic devices like smartphones.

“As component suppliers look for the next growth engine,” she writes, “they’re shifting focus to autos, engaging both existing brands and potential new entrants. Suppliers see many opportunities to leverage smartphone expertise such as in cameras, sensors, batteries, and displays. Given the changing supply chain as the industry transitions to electric from transmission powered vehicles and eventually to autonomous, we see the opportunity for technology vendors, including Google and Apple, to dominate. Component suppliers see new wearables categories like head mounted displays, as further away than the auto opportunity.”

That boom has passed, she says. Growth in smartphones has peaked. Asian component suppliers expect Apple to fare better than the rest—Huberty is looking for iPhone shipments to grow 7% this quarter compared with 37% in fiscal 2015. But electronic parts makers in China, Korea and Japan know they can’t ride that vehicle forever.

If you think of the car of the future as a smartphone with wheels, you can see where this might be headed.