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美国军校教授:美国可能会被ISIS袭击

Peter Dombrowski 2015年11月27日

自以为加大对ISIS的打击力度就能保护普通民众,这种想法不仅一厢情愿,而且会鼓励民众产生更多不切实际的想法。政客们不应该急匆匆地兜售军事解决方案,因为这几乎没有希望解决ISIS构成的直接军事威胁,也不能从根本上解决政治、宗教和民族矛盾。

那种认为西方国家继续对伊斯兰国(ISIS)开战不会招致后院起火的看法,实在是异想天开。像法国一样,美国城市也迟早有可能被ISIS袭击。

作为一位任教于美国军校的国家安全学教授,我的本职工作就是思考未来的战争形态,并培养军事领导者。我发现巴黎恐怖袭击对美国公众和军人的蕴意令人不安。

大多数美国公众都为在叙利亚和伊拉克阵亡的海陆空三军将士感到惋惜,不过也承认这是无可避免的,但是,很少有人能充分明白,美国本土仍然有可能遭到恐怖袭击。巴黎遭受的恐怖袭击,想必会给这种虚幻的自我安慰划上句号了。

追踪恐怖分子:仅是诱人的目标

法国正在重新认识到,法国在过去几个月针对ISIS发动的数百次空袭,以及长期信奉的世俗化理想,终于酿下恶果。

虽然法国禁止公民蒙面纱的政策得到欧盟支持,但这道禁令却招致穆斯林和伊斯兰主义者的满腔怒火。法国变成了一个诱人的脆弱目标。尽管《查理周刊》遇袭后,法国加强了安保措施和情报工作,但仍然不足以拯救巴塔克兰剧院的众多遇难者。袭击发生后,街头上出现了更多全副武装的军警,但这也只能带来表面上的安心,并不足以保障安全。

150年前,西方国家可以对世界任何地方进行武装干涉,基本上不用担心伦敦或柏林遭到炸弹袭击,或是有人在本国的大街上扫射平民。在那个年代,如果类似于19世纪无政府主义者那样的恐怖分子真敢袭击无辜平民或国家领导人,他们的武器也仅限于枪支或偷来的爆炸物。

当今世界则充斥着大量军事级武器。巴黎恐怖袭击事件中恐怖分子使用的AK-47这种“大杀器”,就算在法国这种严格控枪的国家也不难获得。互联网上还有现成的教材,教人怎样用基本的化学原料和简单的电器件制作简易爆炸物。更严重的是,正如9•11事件所示,只要有足够的策划、狡诈和意志力,就连民航客机这种与人无害的技术也可以被当成武器使用。数不胜数的平民死于恐怖袭击,未来也将是如此。

Political leaders should not peddle military solutions that offer little hope for resolving the direct military threat of ISIS quickly, much less the underlying political, religious, and ethnic sources of the conflict.

It is magical thinking to assume that Western states can continue to wage war against the Islamic State (ISIS) without incurring casualties at home. Like France, the United States faces the possibility that the ISIS will attack an American city sooner or later.

As a professor of national security employed by an American war college, I am charged with thinking about the future of war and teaching military leaders. I find the implications of the Paris attack for our public and our services members disturbing.

Most members of the American public regret, but recognize, that soldiers, sailors, and airmen might be killed in action in Syria or Iraq. But until the past week, few seemed to understand fully that the home front remains vulnerable.The Paris attacks should put an end to this comforting fiction.

An inviting target

France is now relearning that its several hundred air strikes against ISIS over the past months and long-term commitment to secular ideals in the face of Islamism at home have consequences.

While the EU may have upheld France’s right to ban veils, the ban raised the ire of Muslims and Islamists alike. France became an inviting soft target. Even the heightened security measures and intensified intelligence activities imposed in the aftermath of Charlie Hebdo were insufficient to save the Bataclan concertgoers. Increased numbers of armed police officers and military personnel on the streets provided superficial reassurance but insufficient safety.

One hundred and fifty years ago, Western states could intervene militarily anywhere the world with little fear that London or Berlin would be bombed or civilians would be shot on the street.If terrorists like the 19th-century Anarchists attacked innocent civilians or state leaders, their weapons were limited to guns or perhaps stolen explosives.

Today the world is awash in military-grade weapons. High-volume killing machines like the AK-47s that were used in the Paris attack are available even in countries like France with strict gun control measures. Knowledge of how to combine basic chemicals and simple electronics to build makeshift improvised explosive devices is readily available on the internet. Worse, as 9/11 showed, even peaceful technologies like civilian airliners can be used as weapons with enough planning, willpower, and cleverness. Casualties have been and will be high.

另外,由于移民的涌入,许多国家已经变成了多民族多宗教的社会。即便法国的绝大多数北非和阿拉伯裔移民是爱好和平、遵纪守法、憎恨暴力的良好公民,只要有少数人包庇或藏匿恐怖分子,就会让侦查工作极难开展。

到现在为止,据说已经有约1800名法国人前往中东,与ISIS并肩作战。匿名情报显示,其中一部分人已经回国,隐匿在大约470万名法国穆斯林之中。法国在这方面并非是孤例,美国和其他欧盟国家也有大量的伊斯兰人口,而且数量还在不断攀升,其中不少人的文化理念还未被当地同化。这些移民群体往往成为藏匿和孕育极端主义者的温床,因此这些国家也仍然有被袭击的风险。尤其是如果ISIS变得更加疯狂,本地的ISIS同情者更加激进,更多经过战争洗礼的西方雇佣军返回本国,那么,这些国家遭袭的风险就会更大。

在追踪这些威胁时,无论是法国、比利时,还是美国政府都会受到技术、分析能力和法律等方面的限制。

至少到目前为止,在民主社会的法律规范和价值观之下,以往那些针对非法移民的最严厉惩治措施已经缓和了不少。以往在这种严峻的时刻和地方,载着难民的船只可能会被毫不客气地直接驱逐走,少数漏网之鱼被抓到后也会被直接遣返,很少有什么正当程序可言。在应对内部威胁上,一些国家以前在面临重大危机时,惯常使用的手段就是圈禁和驱逐,那时距今只有仅仅几代人的时间。就连美国历史上也有过在二战时期圈禁美籍日裔公民的污点。

Moreover, migration has left many countries multiethnic, multireligious mélanges. Even if the vast majority of immigrants of North African and Arab origin in France are peaceable, law-abiding citizens who abhor violence, it takes only a few family members or disaffected outcasts to shelter terrorists and make surveillance extremely difficult.

Reportedly 1,800 or so French residents have traveled to the Middle East to fight alongside ISIS. Anonymous intelligence reports suggest that some number have returned to live amid the roughly 4.7 million Muslims living in France. With large, growing, and sometimes unassimilated Islamic populations where Jihadis might hide and perhaps find comfort, the United States and many other European nations will remain vulnerable. This is especially true if ISIS grows desperate, local sympathizers are radicalized, and more now-battle-hardened Western recruits return home.

The capability of governments like France, Belgium, and the U.S. to track such threats face technical, analytic, and legal limitations.

Democratic norms and values, at least to date, have moderated some of the harshest measures that might be taken against those illegally crossing international borders. In a more brutal time and place, boats carrying refugees might have been turned away without ceremony, while those captured later could be sent home with little if any due process. As for internal threats, only a few generations have passed since internment and deportation were normal in times of crisis. Even the United States has the stain of interning Japanese-American citizens in its recent history.

关闭边界?还是忘了这件事吧

在全球化的时代,关闭边界是不切实际的。现代商业依赖于商品、服务和人力的自由流动,现代化的交通系统也能够提供大批量的人员和物资运输。关闭边界完全是缺乏现实政治和商业利益考量的尝试,注定会以失败告终。当然,这并不能阻挡法国和美国的右翼政客呼吁采取这种措施。

更重要的是,有人觉得,将巴黎恐袭事件称为战争行为,出台以军事主导的新战略,进一步加大对叙利亚和伊拉克境内ISIS目标的打击力度,就能保护普通民众了——这种想法也是一厢情愿。宣扬这种豪言壮语的政客,如法国总统奥朗德等,只会鼓励选民们产生更多不切实际的想法。

必须明确,这在政治上是不健康的,在战略上也是不健康的!

Forget closing borders

Closing borders is impractical in an era of globalization. Modern commerce depends on the free flow of goods, services, and people. Modern transportation systems provide bulk transport for people and materials. Attempts to close borders more tightly will inevitably run afoul of both practical politics and commercial considerations. This, of course, has not stopped the right from calling for such measures in both France and the U.S.

More important, it is also magical thinking to assume that calling the Paris attacks an act of war, devising new military-dominated strategies, and reinvigorating efforts to strike ISIS targets in Syria and Iraq will protect ordinary citizens. Politicians like French President Francois Hollande who engage in such rhetoric are encouraging still more magical thinking among their constituents.

This is unhealthy politically.It is also unhealthy strategically.

不要假装恐怖袭击发生“在别处”

过去几天,美国总统奥巴马几乎成了众矢之的。巴黎恐袭事件之后,他的态度近乎袖手旁观,为此,他必须激烈地为自己辩护。他的反驳令人信服,而且也不太可能让美军卷入代价高昂又没有效果的以牙还牙式的军事升级中。

要想在战场上打败ISIS,进而避免罗马或纽约遭到恐怖袭击,终归是妄想。不管法国、美国、俄罗斯或目前尚未形成的“国际反ISIS同盟”能派出多少军队,要想保护平民免遭恐怖主义的袭击,难度依然很大。只要“独狼”式的恐怖分子和一小搓极端主义者仍然愿意为信仰献身,他们就很难被发现和制止。何况,要打败盘踞在叙利亚和伊拉克的ISIS,需要大量资源和时间,当然也包括大量部队。这也就说明了,恐怖袭击的威胁在未来相当长的一段时间内仍将存在。

指出这些令人不安的现实一点儿也不好玩,但公众必须明白,与ISIS这样的敌人开战意味着什么。对于美法等国的政治领袖来说,要想更好地为选民服务,就不要继续假装这场战争将一直“在别处”发生。他们不应该急匆匆地兜售军事解决方案,因为这些方案几乎没有希望解决ISIS构成的直接军事威胁,也更不要指望它们能从根本上解决政治、宗教和民族矛盾。

Peter Dombrowski是美国海军战争学院战略教授。原文首发于《The Conversation》。(财富中文版)

译者:朴成奎

审校:任文科

Obama has it right

Despite the intense criticism leveled at President Obama these past few days, his strong defense of a more hands-off approach is both compelling and less likely to embroil American troops in costly and ineffective tit-for-tat military escalation.

Defeating ISIS on the battlefield to prevent attacks in Rome or New York may be futile. No matter how much military force France, the United States, Russia, or some yet-to-be-formed coalition apply, it will be incredibly difficult to protect citizens from terror, the ultimate weapon of the weak. As long as lone wolves or small dedicated cells are willing to die in the name of their beliefs, they will be hard to find and difficult to deter. The amount of time and resources—including potentially large numbers of the proverbial “boots on the ground”—that will be required to defeat ISIS in Syria and Iraq ensures that the threat of future terrorist attacks will remain for a long time to come.

There is no pleasure in pointing out these uncomfortable realities. But the public must understand what war against an enemy such as ISIS means. Political leaders in France, the United States, and elsewhere will better serve their constituents by not pretending that the fight will always remain somewhere “over there.” And they should not peddle military solutions that offer little hope for resolving the direct military threat of ISIS quickly, much less the underlying political, religious, and ethnic sources of the conflict.

Peter Dombrowski is a professor of strategy at the U.S. Naval War College. This piece was originally published on The Conversation

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