天津港爆炸冲击全球供应链：电子产品业“短路”

    在毁灭性的爆炸发生之后，天津港至今仍有明火尚未扑灭，现在，大型跨国企业已经开始紧急评估和应对此次灾难对其业务运营造成的影响。天津港是全球最大的港口之一，也是华北地区生产的大量商品运往世界各地的主要门户。在供应链全球化时代，观察家们预计，这一关键节点出现的事故，将给全球带来持久而广泛的影响。

    供应情报公司Elementum首席执行官纳德尔·米哈伊尔表示：“在几分钟之内，我们就意识到，天津港爆炸是继日本海啸、2012年泰国洪水之后对全球供应链影响最大的一次灾难。”

    米哈伊尔称：“如果你有货品存放在港口内或周边地区，就完蛋了。这些物品已被冻结。”

    可以肯定的是，此次爆炸造成了巨大的直接物质损失，灾难发生时，天津港内存放有数百家跨国公司的货物。但随后更长期的各种货运混乱，可能会带来更大的损失。

    据《商业日报》报道，爆炸已经导致天津港两个码头暂停作业，但其他多个码头未受影响。米哈伊尔引用在当地运营的一些客户的报告称，估计至少需要一周时间，才能恢复80%的货物流动。而部分码头关闭带来的连锁反应，将造成港口阻塞数周、甚至几个月。

    供应链服务公司GT Nexus的格雷格·克菲尔表示：“港口内存放的不仅有电视，还有各种元器件和螺栓等。这将对许多公司造成严重的破坏。”

    此外，天津港是多种用于电子产品制造的化学品的装运点之一。这次爆炸发生在瑞海国际物流有限公司的一栋仓库，而据财经新闻网站Quartz报道，经天津港运往世界各地的危险化学品，大部分均由这家公司经营。米哈伊尔预测，未来几周，多种工业材料的价格将上涨，电子产品与医疗保健行业受到的影响将尤为严重。

    这一事故发生的时间点也很不幸，再过三个月多一点，就是美国的假日购物季。灾难发生时存放在港口的许多成品和原材料，本应在“黑色星期五”那天被摆上商店的货架，但现在可能要推迟了。

    很多货运公司已经改为经青岛港甚至更远的上海港发运货物，但这样做一方面将增加货车运输成本，另一方面会给这些港口的海运费率带来上行压力。如果情况持续混乱，对时间敏感的货运商或许会采取克菲尔所说的“极端措施”——在迫不得已的情况下，选择价格高昂的航空货运。（财富中文网）

    With flames still flickering following a devastating explosion in the Chinese port of Tianjin, global enterprises are scrambling to assess and respond to the disaster’s impacts on their operations. Tianjin is one of the world’s largest ports, and a primary gateway to the vast array of goods produced in northern China. In a world of globe-spanning supply chains, observers say the impacts of disruption at this key node could be widespread and long-lasting.

    “We knew that Tianjin was the biggest thing since Japan’s tsunami or the [2012] Thai flood within minutes,” says Nader Mikhail, CEO of the supply intelligence firm Elementum.

    “If you have stuff in or around the port,” says Mikhail, “You’re kind of screwed. It’s frozen.”

    Immediate material losses are sure to be immense, and goods from hundreds of international companies were in the port at the time of the disaster. But longer-term shipping tangles may cost even more.

    The Journal of Commerce reports that the blast has suspended operations at two of Tianjin’s terminals, though several others were unaffected. Mikhail, citing reports from clients working in the area, estimates at least a week until goods are flowing at even 80% of capacity. The ripple effects following even a partial shutdown will clog the port for weeks, if not months.

    “The things that are in [the port] aren’t just TVs, they’re components, they’re bolts,” says Greg Kefer of the supply chain firm GT Nexus. “It’s wreaking havoc on all kinds of companies.”

    Among other things, Tianjin was a shipping point for many of the chemicals used in electronics production. The explosion took place at a warehouse of Ruihai International Logistics, which Quartz has reported handled the majority of the hazardous chemicals shipped through Tianjin. Mikhail projects that prices of many industrial materials will rise in coming weeks, particularly impacting the electronics and health care industries.

    The disruption comes at a particularly bad time, a little over three months before the kickoff of the U.S. holiday shopping season. Many of the finished goods and materials in port as the disaster plays out would have helped stock store shelves on Black Friday, but are now likely to be delayed.

    Shippers are already rerouting goods to alternate ports like Qingdao, and even as far away as Shanghai, both adding trucking costs and putting upward pressure on ocean rates from those ports. If disruptions persist, time-sensitive shippers may resort to what Kefer describes as “heroics”—last-minute measures like hugely expensive air freight shipment.