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《财富》水晶球:2014全球大事预测

新的一年会不会爆出更大规模的监控丑闻?苹果会不会推出堪与iPod、iPhone、iPad比肩的重磅新产品?北极资源争夺战会不会擦枪走火?电动汽车会不会大流行?比特币能否进入主流?……新年到来之际,《财富》预测了2014年可能会发生的重大事件。

    马克•赫德重出江湖

    2014年,迎来70岁生日的拉里•埃里森依然意气风发。他的美洲杯(America's Cup)帆船队奇迹般地在旧金山湾守住了冠军。在佛罗里达州马里布和夏威夷拉奈岛等地投资的房地产项目使他成为自特德•特纳以来最有意思的地主。然而,埃里森执掌的软件制造商甲骨文公司(Oracle)却表现平庸,在Salesforce.com和Workday等后起之秀面前节节败退。于埃里森而言,这是把CEO权杖交给联席总裁马克•赫德的绝佳时机。虽然赫德在3年前因卷入丑闻离开惠普公司(HP),但在以记性差著称的硅谷,人们恐怕早就忘了那档子事了。

    概率:81%。

    Mark Hurd will ride again

    Larry Ellison turns 70 in 2014, and he's riding high. His America's Cup team pulled off a miraculous defense in San Francisco Bay. His real estate projects (from Malibu, Fla., to Lanai, Hawaii) make him the most interesting landowner since Ted Turner. Yet Ellison's company, software maker Oracle (ORCL, Fortune 500), is stuck in neutral, losing ground to upstarts like Salesforce.com (CRM) and Workday (WDAY). It's a perfect time for Ellison to hand the CEO reins to his co-president, Mark Hurd, whose scandalous departure from HP (HPQ, Fortune 500) three years ago is all but forgotten in the land of short-term memory, Silicon Valley.

    Odds: 81%.

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