2014潜在金融危机的演进路线示意图

失业率下降快于预期（美国失业率已经先于计划，降至7%）...

Faced with a faster drop in the unemployment rate than expected (we are already at 7% ahead of schedule) ...

... 美联储（Federal Reserve）将被迫缩减经济刺激政策...

... the Federal Reserve will be forced to back off its stimulus efforts ...

... 结果造成利率上升，不到一个月，利率上升了3个百分点。

... causing interest rates to spike, up three percentage points in less than a month.

于是，持有大量债券的美国五大银行将损失550亿美元。光这些，不会让我们陷入金融危机。比如，身为《财富》美国500强公司的美国银行（Bank of America）的资本充足率将仍将达到7.4%，略低于7.5%的法定要求。

The nation's five largest banks, which hold lots of bonds, will lose $55 billion. That alone wouldn't push us into a financial crisis. Bank of America (BAC, Fortune 500), for instance, would still have a capital ratio of 7.4%, just south of the required 7.5%.

但你知道会发生什么吗？会有一家大型信用对冲基金倒闭。这家对冲基金可能使用美国国债作为抵押品，通过到期回购交易对担保债务凭证（CDO）进行了杠杆投资。（没错，华尔街直到现在仍然在从事这类交易。）

But you know what will? The blow up of a large credit hedge fund, which had made a leveraged bet on collateralized debt obligations through repo-to-maturity trades using Treasuries as collateral. (Yes, Wall Street still does those deals.)

一些紧张的投资者将逃离金融市场...

Already nervous investors will run from financial markets ...

...造成信用挤兑。

... causing a credit crunch.

于是，银行为了覆盖近期资本损失将被迫转向美联储寻求帮助。华尔街将此称为短期融资，别人则称之为救助。这种做法会起作用，但会让在过去一年将银行股价推高30%的投资者大感意外。明年肯定不会有出现这么好的行情了。（财富中文网）

Banks nursing their recent capital losses will be forced to turn to the Fed for what Wall Street calls short-term funding and the rest of us call a bailout. It will work, but all of it will come as a surprise to investors who have bid bank stocks up 30% in the past year. Next year won't be as good.