大众汽车可能遭遇利润“减速带”

    大众（Volkswagen）在驶向世界第一宝座的道路上是不是遇到障碍了？

    德国一家权威商业杂志报道这家汽车制造商的高管担忧利润将低于预期后，这个问题如今已经成为德国各界关注的热点。

    大众汽车的股价在截至上周五的五个交易日中已经下跌了4%，而德国主要股指上涨了4%。这个背离大盘的走势表明上面提到的报道已经吓到了投资者，虽然大众很快予以否认。

    德国《经理人》（Manager Magazin）杂志报道称，大众集团首席财务官潘师告诉管理层，大众集团很可能无法实现2015年的利润目标，并由此无法在2018年达到息税前利润增长8%的目标。

    “我们认为，大众确实存在一个问题，”伯恩斯坦研究公司（Bernstein Research）在一份分析师报告中指出。“他们过高地估计了MQB项目的节约效应，造成市场预期过高，难以兑现。”MQB是大众的横置发动机模块化平台，用于生产大众新高尔夫（Golf）以及奥迪（Audi）、西雅特（Seat）、斯柯达（Skoda）和其他大众品牌车型。

    伯恩斯坦预计，到2020年，大众全球单一平台的汽车产量将达到550万辆，而将被MQB取代的现有平台如今的汽车产量是300万辆。

    2009年以来，大众高管一直宣称，MQB将实现20%的成本节约。伯恩斯坦认为，大众对于这个平台的鼓吹“言过其实”。他警告投资者，不要指望新平台相比老平台马上就能产生很大的成本节约效应。伯恩斯坦表示，一位曾将新高尔夫拆解为零件的专家表示，这个平台使用昂贵的材料和工程解决方案，看来成本相对较高。

    大众拥有12个品牌，在高速增长的中国市场有骄人的市场份额，公司的目标是2018年（甚至更早）成为全球最大的汽车制造商。通用汽车（General Motors）和丰田汽车（Toyota）尚未发布具体的预期，但两者都有野心在利润和客户满意度上领导这个市场（假如它们不能在销售量上取得领先地位的话）。

    大众正在拓展北美客户群，一个关键项目就是在美国田纳西州查塔努加建设一家组装厂，制造专门为北美驾驶者设计的帕萨特（Passat）中型车。但大众也可能面临美国工人罢工的风险，美国汽车工人联合会（U.A.W.）已瞄准将这家工厂，希望把它纳入组织。

    伯恩斯坦表示，大众在实现效率方面表现“相当不错”，或许已实现大部分。除此之外，本田（Honda）、现代（Hyundai）等汽车制造商也已证明可以通过少数平台实现强劲销售。

    但不是所有人都在担心大众。德意志银行（Deutsche Bank）针对上述报道发布了一份报告称，大众在十年前就遭遇了成本利润问题；这家汽车制造商的领导人正在确保不再发生这样的情况；因此，那次会议的目的是向高管发出警告，警惕成本。

    大众无疑已经意识到的一点是，公开探讨世界领导地位（无论它在激励员工方面有什么价值）容易被质疑者和评论人士盯上，但其中大量的关注并不令人愉快。（财富中文网）

    Has Volkswagen hit a pothole on the road to world domination?

    The question is front and center in Germany, after an authoritative German business magazine reported that the automaker's executives are worried that profit is falling behind projections.

    VW shares fell 4% for the five trading days ending Friday, while the main German stock index was up 4%. The divergence suggests that investors have been spooked by the story, which VW quickly denied.

    Manager Magazin reported that Hans Dieter Potsch, the company's chief financial officer, told executives that the VW group was on a path to miss its 2015 profit target and, therefore, might not reach its 8% target for earnings before interest and taxes in 2018.

    "We believe VW does have an issue," said Bernstein Research in an analyst report, having "overpromised on savings related to the MQB program and has created market expectations that will be difficult to fulfill." MQB is the moniker for a modular vehicle architecture, the basis for the new VW Golf and many other models from Audi, Seat, Skoda, and other VW brands.

    By the end of the decade, Bernstein expects VW to be building 5.5 million vehicles worldwide from a single platform, compared with 3 million vehicles today from the platform MQB will replace.

    Since 2009, VW executives have claimed that MQB will allow the automaker to realize cost savings of 20%. Bernstein has called the platform "over-hyped" and cautioned against expecting too much cost improvements from the new platform over its predecessor. Bernstein said a specialist that has torn down the new Golf to its constituent parts said the platform looks relatively high cost, using expensive materials and engineering solutions.

    The automaker has assembled a collection of 12 brands and built an impressive presence in the fast-growing Chinese market, leading to its goal of becoming the No. 1 automaker worldwide by 2018, or even before. General Motors (GM) and Toyota (TM) haven't issued specific projections, but they both harbor ambitions of their own to lead the market in terms of profits and customer satisfaction, if not in unit sales volume.

    VW is its expanding customer base in North America, driven by the construction of an assembly plant in Chattanooga, Tenn. where it builds a Passat midsize sedan that's designed specifically for North American drivers. But VW could face labor unrest in the U.S. since the U.A.W. has targeted its plant for organization.

    Bernstein said that VW is "pretty good" at achieving efficiencies and may have reaped most of them already. Besides, other automakers like Honda and Hyundai have proven they also can achieve strong volume from few platforms.

    Not every one is worried about VW. Deutsche Bank issued a report based on the magazine story saying that VW ran into cost and profit trouble a decade ago and that the automaker's leaders are making sure it doesn't happen again; thus, the meeting to warn its executives and caution about costs.

    What VW no doubt realizes is that speaking openly about world domination, whatever its value for motivating employees, creates lots of scrutiny from skeptics and commentators, much of it unflattering.