中国全速前进

飞机、火车和汽车

如何满足13亿人口及他们所需物资的交通运输需求？

    中国的繁荣之路可能不仅需要公路的铺设，而且需要机场与高铁的建设。

    中国很多经济目标的实现都要依赖高效的交通运输：城镇化使得在城市和农村大力投资交通基础设施都成为必要的举措。一些新项目涉及在大城市兴建高速公路和地铁。还有一些道路项目将城镇与乡村贯通，使它们融入正在快速壮大的城市交通网络中。随着沿海地区逐渐走向现代化，基础制造业会转向中西部内陆地区。北京与上海等东部城市正沿着价值链向更尖端的产业迈进，中国计划将更多的发展与货运项目转移到相对比较偏远的西部省份。斥资270亿美元在武汉建设内陆港口的计划就是一个例子。

    中国正在全国范围内大力推进交通建设，希望能够借此更好地挖掘正在崛起的中产阶层巨大的消费潜力。分析师称，国内消费对中国经济的未来起着关键作用。相比于依赖向欧美出口廉价商品的路子，扩大内需能让中国实现更可持续的经济增长。

    中国很多项目的建设都在我们的意料之中，与美国工业革命（Industrial Revolution）期间的发展模式相似，不同的只是规模大小的差别。2007年，中国还没有高速铁路；而如今却拥有世界上规模最大的高速铁路网，总里程长达5,800英里。中国计划到2015年末至少再增建5,400英里的超高速轨道、50个机场以及440个深水船舶泊位。

    考虑到近期中国经济增速的放缓以及外界对于大兴基建导致地方政府债台高筑有可能引发危机的担忧情绪，中国的经济转型似乎不是那么好驾驭。在2011年至2015年将高速铁路里程增加一倍的目标也不是那么容易，尽管目前来看这一目标还有望达成。毕马威政府机构和基建业主管叶伟成称：“有很多人们认为不可能发生的事情都在中国发生了。”

Planes, trains, and automobiles

How do you transport 1.3 billion people and all their supplies?

    China's path to prosperity may be paved with more than just roads. It's also building airports. And high-speed railways.

    So many of China's economic goals hinge on efficient transport: The shift from rural to urban living has necessitated vast investments in transit, both in cities and the country. Some new projects consist of highways and subway lines built within metropolitan areas. Others will link rural towns and villages, bringing them into the country's rapidly growing urban network. Gradually, as the coasts continue to modernize, basic manufacturing will move further inland. As eastern cities like Beijing and Shanghai rise up the value chain toward more sophisticated industries, China plans to shift more development (and freight) toward its relatively isolated western provinces. Case in point: It's spending $27 billion on an inland port in Wuhan.

    By developing greater connectivity throughout the country, China hopes it will be better able to tap into the vast spending potential of its rising middle class. Domestic consumption, analysts say, is the key to the future of the Chinese economy. By focusing inward, China will be able to create more sustainable growth than it would by peddling low-cost exports to the U.S. and Europe.

    Much of the construction is what you might expect -- the development patterns echo the U.S. during the Industrial Revolution. What's different is the scale. In 2007, China had no high-speed rail; today it has the world's largest high-speed network, with 5,800 miles of track. The country plans to construct at least 5,400 more miles of superfast track, plus at least 50 additional airports and 440 deep-water berths for ships by the end of 2015.

    Given the recent slowdown and fears over repercussions from infrastructure-induced government debt, managing that kind of economic redirection may seem tricky. But then again, so does doubling the country's length of high-speed rail between 2011 and 2015 -- and that goal is on track so far. Says Stephen Ip, KPMG China's lead partner for government and infrastructure: "A lot of things happen in China that you don't think could."