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中国全速前进

中国全速前进

Anne Vandermey 2013-06-04
中国大举投资兴建公路、铁路和其他基础设施,以便更好地挖掘国内消费的巨大潜力,进一步摆脱经济增长对出口的依赖,实现更可持续的发展。财富全球论坛召开在即,中国狂飙突进式的基础设施建设浪潮将再次成为全球关注的焦点之一。

    中国正面临着一个十字路口。中国领导人正坚定地推动这个世界第二大经济体的转型。他们希望让所谓的知识型企业与传统制造业并驾齐驱;希望扩大内需以带动经济增长;希望全世界都垂涎中国品牌。全球政商界领袖将在《财富》(Fortune)杂志举办的全球论坛(Global Forum)上就这一宏伟愿景展开讨论和辩论,论坛即将于6月6日-8日在西部城市成都举行。但阅读这篇特别报道后,你会发现,种种迹象正在不断浮现,预示着一个全新的中国即将出现。总部设在北京的联想(Lenovo)正在生产创新科技产品;大连万达集团(Wanda Group of Dalian)正在国内建造主题公园和度假区;中国政府正在大举投资兴建公路和铁路,以方便中产阶层和富裕消费者旅游度假。这些庞大规模的基础设施项目带来就业机会,更重要的是,它们有助于推动中国向下一站进发。

    China is at a crossroads. Its leaders are committed to dramatically transforming the world's second-largest economy. They want so-called knowledge businesses to supplement manufacturing. They want to increase domestic consumption to bolster growth. They want the world to covet Chinese brands. Business and political leaders from around the world will discuss and debate this ambitious vision at Fortune's upcoming Global Forum in the western city of Chengdu on June 6-8. But signs of a New China already are emerging, as you'll discover by reading this special report. Beijing-based Lenovo is producing innovative tech products. Wanda Group of Dalian is building domestic theme parks and resorts. And the Chinese government is investing heavily in roads and railways to help middle-class and affluent consumers get there. These massive infrastructure projects help keep citizens employed -- and, more important, could help China reach its next destination.

图为中国高速公路网示意图

全速造路

投入2070亿美元扭转交通堵塞问题

    仅仅在过去的10年间,中国就兴建了3.1万英里的高速公路,长度是美国整个州际公路网(Interstate Highway System)的2/3。后者兴建的时间已经是在差不多60年前,因此造价高昂。目前中国的高速公路总里程为4.9万英里,公路总长约260万英里,是2002年总长的2倍多。

    而且这个数据仍然在继续增长。据毕马威(KPMG)分析,去年中国投入了2070亿美元用于公路建设和升级改造。根据中国政府“十二五计划”,到2015年,要再建成至少18.6万英里的公路(当然也是巨额投资),9条独立的南北线和18条东西高速公路也在计划内。届时还将建成7条另外的路线,从北京辐射到中国的边境。

    “这些基建大部分属于追赶型建设,”佛罗里达州立大学(Florida State University)教授山姆•斯塔利说。他在理性基金(Reason Foundation)从事国内交通研究。中国总人口占世界的20%,但道路拥有量只占5.6%。中国在2009年就已经超越美国成为世界上最大的汽车市场,去年的车辆成交量已经高达1,930万辆。

    公路建设一直是中国创造就业的重要渠道。根据研究公司IBISWorld的数据,中国去年参与公路建设项目的企业有46家,雇员总计为710,500人,薪水支出达到了123亿美元。

    但领导层期待这些道路能在从工厂到港口的原料和成品运输中发挥关键作用,提高物流的效率。(最受关注的工程是大规模的造桥项目。最受期待的是长达50公里、贯通中国南部广东省和香港及澳门的六车道大桥。根据规划,这座大桥将于2016年竣工,支持者称,大桥建成后,中国大陆到香港的行程时间将从4个多小时缩短到40分钟。)斯塔利说:“这些道桥工程可不是靠延伸想象力就能建成的。”当然,也不是单单延长一下公路那么简单。

The race to build roads

A $207 billion investment to head off future traffic jams

    In the past decade alone, China has built 31,000 miles of expressways. That's about two-thirds the length of the entire U.S. Interstate Highway System, constructed at great cost since it was founded some 60 years ago. Today China boasts 49,000 miles of expressways -- and some 2.6 million miles of roads, more than double the amount in 2002.

    And it's still growing. Last year China invested $207 billion in road construction and upgrades, according to analysis by KPMG. The government's current five-year plan in the country calls for at least 186,000 miles (and many billions of dollars) more by 2015, with plans to complete nine separate north-south lines and 18 expressways running east to west. Seven additional routes radiate from Beijing to China's borders.

    "Most of this infrastructure is catch-up," says Sam Staley, a Florida State University professor who studies transportation in the country for the Reason Foundation. China is home to 20% of the world's population but still has just 5.6% of its roads. In 2009, China surpassed the U.S. to become the world's largest car market, with 19.3 million vehicles sold last year.

    Highway construction has been an important part of China's efforts to create jobs. Last year the country had 46 businesses in the industry, with 710,500 employees and a $12.3 billion payroll, according to research firm IBISWorld.

    But leadership expects that the roadways will play a critical role in transporting suppliers and finished goods from factories to ports, and in helping make logistics more efficient. (Among the most watched endeavors are massive bridge projects. The most highly anticipated undertaking is a 50-kilometer six-lane bridge linking China's southern Guangdong province with Hong Kong and Macau. It is slated for completion in 2016 and proponents claim it will reduce travel time from mainland China to Hong Kong from more than four hours to 40 minutes.) Says Staley: "They're not done by any stretch of the imagination." Or any stretch of highway.

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