塞浦路斯“危机”可能长不了

    • 尽管塞浦路斯的经济规模还不到欧元区17国的0.5%，但欧盟官员非常愿意砸钱来限制这个问题所产生的影响。希腊和葡萄牙的经验表明，即使很小的经济体也会影响经济信心。欧盟官员最大的动力仍是他们自己的工作——他们将继续通过“援助”这种权宜之计来彻底消除人们对危机扩散的担心。

    • 许多人认为，塞浦路斯是欧元区的一大漏洞，允许这样的国家加入欧元区首先就是个重大失误。我们预计他们的应对措施依然是用钱来解决问题，而他们的初步行动将是启动银行业改革，以此遏制腐败。

    • 俄罗斯总统普京已对存款税提出批评。他说，一旦落实，它将是一个不公平、不专业而且危险的决定。也许普京在塞浦路斯也有存款？塞浦路斯的经济规模约为240亿欧元（1,932亿元人民币），而俄罗斯放在塞浦路斯的资金估计为600亿欧元（4,830亿元人民币）左右。因此，俄罗斯人撤资及其对塞浦路斯银行业与经济的负面冲击着实令人担心。这也进一步表明，塞政府必须对存款采取限制措施，以防资金外逃。

    虽然我们认为市场将很快摆脱塞浦路斯问题的影响，但它和意大利选举为打压欧元提供了很好的武器。

    市场再也经受不起新一轮重大危机的干扰！（财富中文网）

    译者：Charlie

    • Even with an economy the size of less than one half a percent of the 17-nation Eurozone, Eurocrats are incentivized to throw money at the problem to limit fall out. The experience of Greece and Portugal in particular shows that even puny economies can impact economic sentiment. Eurocrats' biggest incentive remains their own jobs -- they'll continue to squash any fears of contagion with bailout band-aids.

    • Cyprus represents, to many, a huge flaw in the Eurozone system – allowing countries like Cyprus to enter the Eurozone in the first place. Again we expect the play from them to be throwing good money at bad, with initial attempts of setting forth banking reforms to limit corruption.

    • Russian President Vladimir Putin has criticized the levy saying that the decision, should it be made, would be unfair, unprofessional and dangerous. Maybe Putin has some money in Cyprus too?? It is estimated that Russia has ~ €60B of total exposure to Cyprus on a ~€24B economy. So there's a real fear of Russians pulling their money and the negative windfall it would have on the banking system and economy. This further suggests that restrictive measures will have to be placed on deposits to prevent flight.

    While we think the market will move past Cyprus over the short term, this event along with the Italian elections provide good ammo to put pressure on the euro.

    Nothing like another good crisis to stir up the markets!